2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday June 26th, 2021. 3:00PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series will visit Pocono Raceway this weekend for two straight days of racing. For those that remember, the Cup Series hosted back to back races at Pocono in 2020 to help consolidate both Pocono dates in the midst of COVID-19. The consolidated weekend proved to be so efficient that NASCAR officially scheduled a similar return to Pocono for 2021. On Saturday, the Cup Series will waive the green flag for the Pocono 325 which will provide a solid betting opportunity and also yield insight into another betting opportunity on Sunday with the running of the Explore the Pocono Mountains 350. As a result, let’s take our early look at this week’s opener and provide our handicapping acumen for our Pocono 325 race picks!

For fans and bettors, this year’s races at Pocono are rather unique when you consider that all prior races under the 550 horsepower (high-downforce) package have been run at 1.5 mile venues. Typically, the Cup Series has early dates at Auto Club Speedway or has visited larger layouts like Michigan before their trip to the Pocono Mountains. Instead, this week’s dual races will feature the first competition for Cup Series’ teams using the 550HP package at a track that is larger than 1.5 miles. Pocono, known as the Tricky Triangle, yields a stark contrast from racing on the intermediate 1.5 mile speedways. The track provides 3 distinct corners that requires a balanced setup and drivers to make the most out of corner exit to carry speed down the long straightaways. Therefore by all stretches of the imagination, this weekend’s racing product should be different from anything we have seen this season.

The best way to handicap Pocono stems from a combination of track history and current performance trends. Personally, I always put the bigger emphasis on current performance trends at the horsepower tracks. No matter what rules package NASCAR has implemented, Pocono usually favors those drivers/teams that have shown outright speed at the larger layouts. In fact if you go down the winners list at Pocono, you will see an undeniable trend of drivers that have stood out in terms of raw speed in that particular calendar year. For this weekend’s races, we will look at prior track history and also compare the performance trends from drivers in the 550hp package. Both of these angles should provide a solid foundation for this week’s expectations and perhaps we can keep an open mind that things will likely be different from Saturday’s race and into Sunday’s. With that being said, let’s take a look at the data.

Performance and Loop Data

In the first graph below, I have compiled loop data statistics for the 5 prior races at Pocono Raceway. As you will see, Denny Hamlin leads all drivers with the best average rating (122.8) which is a result of 2 victories in the last 3 races. Pocono has actually been one of Hamlin’s best tracks throughout his career. Hamlin won his first two starts at Pocono in 2006 and leads all active drivers with 6 career victories. Those 6 victories are double the closest competitors which consists of the Busch brothers who each have 3 wins a piece at Pocono. Kyle Busch actually ranks 3rd in our loop data for the past 5 Pocono starts. Rowdy’s 3 victories have come in the last 7 starts and he leads all drivers with 189 laps led during the data sample. It would also be ignorant to omit Kevin Harvick from the Pocono conversation. Despite just having 1 victory throughout his career at Pocono, Harvick has compiled an impressive 5.6 average finishing position over the last 10 starts which includes 3 runner-up finishes.

Beyond the top guys mentioned above, I would also point out a couple of outliers and provide some reasoning. I noticed Aric Almirola was really high on this list which is a product of finishing in the top 5 in both Pocono races in 2020. Perhaps, Almirola could be another sleeper target this week on the heels of his season-best 4th place result last week at Nashville. However, I don’t want to jump the gun on analytics on prior track history especially when you consider the significant struggles of Stewart-Haas Racing this season under the 550hp package. Further observations around the last 5 races at Pocono also include rather dismal results for the likes of Austin Dillon and Kurt Busch. Despite 3 wins, the elder Busch has been mediocre at best with Chip Ganassi Racing at Pocono. In Busch’s 4 starts with Ganassi, he has posted finishes of 11th, 27th, 18th, and 13th. Meanwhile, Austin Dillon has never shown much success at Pocono. In fact, Dillon’s best finish is 13th in 14 career starts.

In the bottom graph, I have compiled loop data stats for the 550hp package throughout the 2021 season. Granted, these results all stem from 1.5 mile venues which are completely different from Pocono Raceway. Despite the difference in driving style, I still think these performance trends are important for raw speed evaluation. Drivers are nearly full throttle at the 1.5 mile tracks in the 550hp package which really points to the raw speed factor and that is one of the most important aspects towards winning at Pocono. So while the differences from high-banked 1.5 mile tracks and Pocono are significant, I think the data can still be applied.

Without any surprise, Kyle Larson has dominated the 550hp package statistics. Larson is starting to dominate every statistic in the Cup Series following his 4th straight win last week at Nashville. Simply put, we are seeing Larson’s true talent now that he is in elite equipment and he is going to continue to win a lot of races as the season progresses. As good as Larson has been on the 1.5 mile venues, it can be easy to overvalue him this week. The setup differences at the 1.5 mile tracks are somewhat similar or within the same ballpark at many of those venues. At Pocono, this will be a completely different setup and balance is very important for drivers to succeed this week. Saturday’s race will be one of those hit or miss races for a lot of teams from a setup standpoint.

I am not hinting at the fact Larson should be avoided this week. I would not dare to say that with the #5 team’s momentum. I am saying that they are a risky bet this week. For the 550hp data below, I am more intrigued by the likes of Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. Despite some struggles in recent weeks, both teams have been solid under this rules package. Additionally, I believe both Hamlin and Busch are among the best drivers for a place like Pocono. I will also throw Brad Keselowski’s name out as a notable mention. Keselowski has experienced success at Pocono before and appears to be best using the 550hp package this season. I will be keeping Keselowski on my radar this week for value purposes.

*Loop data from last 5 races at Pocono Raceway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Denny Hamlin	122.8	7.8	4.2	4.0	6.4	-83	76	97	757
Kevin Harvick	117.1	14.0	7.4	7.0	7.6	31	112	120	756
Kyle Busch	116.1	11.0	7.2	10.8	10.0	-35	123	189	691
Erik Jones	103.0	13.6	6.6	10.2	11.2	-8	20	21	697
Aric Almirola	96.3	13.8	12.4	11.0	12.4	27	34	65	757
Brad Keselowski	94.6	8.0	7.0	13.6	12.4	68	39	18	714
Martin Truex Jr	94.0	12.4	16.4	13.8	12.0	-52	9	19	688
Kyle Larson	92.4	20.7	8.0	18.0	10.3	79	33	35	486
William Byron	90.6	18.6	14.8	8.0	13.0	51	14	35	757
Chase Elliott	90.3	13.2	7.8	15.6	13.6	16	12	16	676
Joey Logano	81.9	18.0	16.6	21.2	14.0	-27	13	11	750
Alex Bowman	81.0	14.8	13.6	14.8	14.0	11	2	0	756
Christopher Bell	80.9	26.5	22.0	21.5	23.0	33	1	0	169
Ryan Blaney	80.8	18.2	17.0	13.6	15.2	-2	28	21	756
Kurt Busch	78.5	8.8	15.8	15.6	15.2	13	24	46	756
Ryan Newman	74.5	13.2	16.6	14.2	15.4	-39	1	13	756
Matt DiBenedetto	72.8	15.8	19.2	16.0	17.2	7	1	0	757
Daniel Suarez	72.0	16.4	18.6	17.6	17.2	1	17	38	754
Chris Buescher	71.3	20.8	27.8	22.6	22.4	39	6	3	711
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	66.2	13.4	21.0	21.4	18.2	-31	3	0	743
Austin Dillon	64.9	20.0	23.0	20.4	19.6	-7	0	0	625
Cole Custer	64.0	15.0	13.5	16.5	17.5	0	0	0	270
Bubba Wallace	56.2	26.2	22.6	23.6	20.8	-22	1	0	744
Michael McDowell	56.0	23.0	24.2	21.8	25.0	7	4	1	632
Ryan Preece	52.9	20.0	19.3	26.3	23.0	38	0	0	542
Tyler Reddick	48.0	22.5	22.5	32.5	30.5	30	5	0	261
Corey LaJoie	44.4	28.4	29.6	29.0	27.4	-22	3	0	593
Ross Chastain	38.5	30.3	32.7	29.7	31.7	-3	0	0	464
J.J. Yeley	38.5	30.3	32.3	30.3	31.5	18	1	0	537
James Davison	37.4	34.5	31.5	32.0	32.0	0	0	0	261
Josh Bilicki	33.8	32.7	34.7	33.7	33.3	-13	0	0	407
Garrett Smithley	33.1	32.0	34.0	32.5	35.0	1	0	0	261
Quin Houff	30.4	34.0	34.0	32.8	34.0	15	2	0	470
Joey Gase	28.8	32.5	36.5	35.0	35.5	1	0	0	257
B.J. McLeod	26.1	32.8	37.3	37.3	37.3	-15	1	0	404

*Loop data from 550HP package stemming from Homestead, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Kansas, and Charlotte

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	135.9	11.8	4.0	5.4	2.6	47	315	836	1526
William Byron	113.4	9.6	8.0	6.0	6.0	42	137	148	1526
Kyle Busch	104.4	17.2	9.8	4.4	8.6	86	82	21	1526
Denny Hamlin	102.6	8.4	8.2	7.6	8.2	41	51	84	1526
Brad Keselowski	99.2	7.0	11.2	12.0	10.0	0	89	152	1522
Martin Truex Jr	96.4	7.6	10.2	10.6	8.8	-16	43	43	1517
Ryan Blaney	95.6	13.6	12.4	13.8	10.4	8	71	28	1525
Chase Elliott	93.7	8.8	11.2	14.4	11.4	60	73	48	1421
Kevin Harvick	93.4	4.2	15.0	9.4	12.0	6	41	0	1525
Alex Bowman	93.1	13.6	10.0	12.4	10.8	19	39	5	1524
Austin Dillon	91.0	11.8	13.0	9.2	11.4	45	35	1	1526
Chris Buescher	85.4	18.0	13.4	11.2	13.8	-7	57	70	1526
Joey Logano	80.3	13.0	15.2	16.6	13.6	-63	13	19	1523
Tyler Reddick	78.1	20.2	14.4	13.2	17.2	30	41	13	1523
Matt DiBenedetto	77.3	22.8	16.2	15.4	14.4	-10	11	2	1522
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	76.2	13.8	13.2	16.4	15.2	1	14	23	1517
Kurt Busch	75.5	12.6	23.6	23.8	18.6	-8	43	1	1052
Christopher Bell	73.4	10.4	17.2	20.0	16.0	-27	32	3	1519
Ryan Newman	71.0	20.6	18.6	16.2	18.8	-1	17	0	1521
Daniel Suarez	67.7	19.6	14.2	16.8	19.6	-20	17	14	1521
Michael McDowell	67.3	11.2	14.4	15.0	18.8	-41	6	9	1522
Bubba Wallace	65.3	17.6	23.6	21.2	21.0	-8	15	2	1519
Ross Chastain	63.4	21.6	24.8	21.0	22.0	14	16	0	1484
Erik Jones	60.8	23.0	24.6	20.4	22.0	-6	28	0	1520
Cole Custer	58.0	18.0	17.2	22.2	20.8	-41	0	0	1520
Chase Briscoe	53.8	23.6	27.2	21.0	24.8	-2	2	0	1520
Aric Almirola	53.6	21.8	22.8	27.8	23.4	-11	0	0	1427
Ryan Preece	52.7	18.0	25.2	23.8	24.0	-32	7	0	1512
Anthony Alfredo	49.8	27.4	16.4	24.6	25.0	-21	1	4	1518
Corey LaJoie	46.4	28.0	22.2	29.6	27.0	-26	29	0	1321
Justin Haley	41.0	26.4	26.8	28.6	30.0	-44	9	0	1505
Cody Ware	34.5	31.6	33.4	32.2	33.0	-12	0	0	1482
Garrett Smithley	34.3	32.8	33.0	32.3	32.8	8	0	0	1168
B.J. McLeod	34.2	32.4	33.4	32.0	33.2	-16	0	0	1480
James Davison	31.7	32.7	34.3	34.0	34.3	10	0	0	765
Quin Houff	31.5	35.0	33.4	34.0	33.6	-9	0	0	1473
Joey Gase	28.5	36.0	35.7	34.7	35.7	-3	0	0	821
Josh Bilicki	27.5	36.4	36.8	35.8	36.4	-8	0	0	1428

Betting Targets

As I alluded to above, I believe Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are worth the gambles this week. I have been monitoring both drivers throughout the week across multiple books to try to get the most value. The way I look at Saturday’s race is this should be a decent opportunity to pivot against Larson’s success. Larson will undoubtedly be fast and deserves to be the heavy favorite. However, it takes a lot of contributing factors to find victory lane at Pocono. The track’s size will provide numerous opportunities for pit strategy and rest assured teams will do whatever they can to win the game of track position. Personally, I really like the value both Hamlin and Busch are getting as top-tier Pocono talents. Additionally, both drivers have shown speed under this package.

My favorite dark horse this week involves the #24 of William Byron. Unfortunately, Byron’s performance throughout the 2021 season has diluted his dark horse value this week. However, Byron should be towards the top of everyone’s radar. When Hendrick Motorsports and the Chevrolet teams were struggling, Byron was still posting quality results at Pocono. In the last 5 starts, Byron has posted finishes of 6th, 9th, 4th, 14th, and 7th at Pocono. With Hendrick Motorsports’ return to prominence and Rudy Fugle atop the pit box, Byron is poised to have a winning opportunity this weekend if things go according to plan. Despite the diluted win odds, Byron is one of my favorite H2H options this week among the intermediate betting options.

For all the thoughts I shared above about Byron, a lot of the same thoughts apply to Brad Keselowski this week. I am cautiously optimistic about the #2 car simply because he always performs well at Pocono. In 22 career starts, Keselowski has recorded 10 top 10 finishes. He is a strong fantasy option and I am listing him as a betting target sharply for H2H purposes. For the last 2 months, Keselowski has been commonly paired against teammates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney by oddsmakers. If that happens again this week, Keselowski provides tremendous value in those types of pairings given both Blaney and Logano’s history at Pocono. I’m not necessarily looking to back Keselowski for the outright victory unless I find much better odds. However, I am convinced he can yield some profit in the right matchups this weekend.

Betting Fades

The biggest fade opportunities surround the Stewart-Haas Racing cars going into Saturday’s Pocono 325. A lot of people are going to be looking at prior track history where Harvick and Almirola have looked really strong in recent races. I feel like most of those people will mostly overlook the fact that Stewart-Haas Racing has been awful under the 550hp package. We have witnessed the SHR cars find some success at the shorter tracks with the 750hp package but we have yet to see any trend reversals from the 550hp package. As a result, I am fully confident towards fading Stewart-Haas Racing drivers until I see that trend reversal for this package. Also, I would throw Joey Logano and Austin Dillon into the fade bucket this weekend given the correct match-ups. Despite a win, Logano has consistently shown underwhelming results at Pocono and has not looked good in this particular package. Meanwhile, I mentioned Dillon’s struggles at Pocono earlier with a career best 13th place finish in 14 starts at the Tricky Triangle.

Draftkings 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 Optimal Lineup

2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 Betting Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +700 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +800 (1 unit)
William Byron +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -115 over Kevin Harvick (3 units)
Brad Keselowski -130 over Joey Logano (2 units)