2021 Pocono Mountains 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 27th, 2021. 3:19PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Earlier today, Kyle Larson appeared to be moments away from picking up a historic 4th straight victory but blew a tire coming to the checkered flag which allowed teammate Alex Bowman to steal the victory at Pocono Raceway. Bowman and Larson fought hard against each other in the closing laps after the #48 team capitalized off pit strategy to gain opportunistic track position. In reality, Bowman was not among the fastest cars on Saturday but made the most of their opportunities to gain track position. On Sunday, the Cup Series returns for the 2nd straight day of racing at the Tricky Triangle and rest assured strategy will ramp up again when the green flag waives for the Pocono Mountains 350!

Unfortunately, our betting picks did not hit the winner in the Cup Series earlier today. However, I will point out that the 3 drivers I backed for the victory in Busch, Byron, and Hamlin finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively. Personally, I thought Busch and Byron were the class of the field behind Larson all afternoon and perhaps they deserve equal respect going into Sunday because Larson will be unloading the backup car after the hard contact with the wall on the final lap. I’m sure the #5 team will be tough again with Larson behind the wheel but as I pointed out in yesterday’s preview; the battle for track position opens the door for many possibilities. After all, it took Larson nearly 20 laps to get around Bowman before the tire went down and Bowman was a borderline top 10 car for most of the afternoon.

Joey Logano and Kurt Busch were among the drivers that made yesterday’s race a two stop event. I was not expecting much from either Logano nor Busch but they played the strategy game to perfection to bring home 6th and 7th place results. Sunday’s race will be 10 laps (25 miles) longer which will make that strategy pretty difficult barring multiple cautions. However, the blueprint has been displayed for everyone and it includes taking track position over tires with nearly every opportunity. Outside of the emphasis on pit strategy, Saturday’s race was not too surprising. I did expect guys like Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott to run better. Instead, both drivers suffered early damage that affected the aerodynamics on their cars. Still, I am going to keep Sunday’s preview relatively brief. I have already outlined the analytics in yesterday’s preview which still applies and believe the majority of our betting targets will be nearly the same going into Sunday.

Betting Targets

Kyle Larson will and should undoubtedly be the favorite again on Sunday. Though the #5 team will have to unload the backup car, I would not be surprised to see Larson in position for another win. Simply put, the driver and team are that strong. Behind Larson, I personally still like Kyle Busch and William Byron as the best bets to find victory lane. Unfortunately, betting odds are even more conversative after Saturday’s performances which increases the relative risks. My fear is that strategy will put a few other drivers in the mix that do not belong to be there in similar fashion to Joey Logano and Kurt Busch in today’s race.

Based on Saturday’s performance, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, and Kurt Busch all deserve credit for a strong afternoon. Though I would argue they all made the most of track position, they still had the speed to maintain the track position earned. With that being said, I feel like Denny Hamlin remains the sneaky pick for Sunday. Hamlin did not exactly nail the strategy on Saturday and never showed the greatest speed; however the #11 car was in the thick of things in the final laps. I made the comment in Saturday’s preview that Hamlin is probably the best outright driving talent at Pocono and I still standby that statement. I’m not sure if the #11 team has enough for the Hendrick cars but if they can make improvements, they will be in position to make things happen especially if they hit the correct strategy.

For H2H purposes outside of the top guys, I thought Daniel Suarez and Tyler Reddick were the most impressive drivers on Saturday based on pre-race expectations. I had a sneaky feeling that Reddick would be strong given the Richard Childress Racing improvement but could not find a match-up worthy of my liking. Reddick is quickly becoming one of my favorite intermediate betting options on a near weekly basis. Meanwhile, I looked hard at Daniel Suarez before Saturday’s race but did not pull the trigger on any H2H match-ups due to the #99 team’s performance under the 550 package. However, Suarez was probably the biggest pleasant surprise on Saturday on the basis of my expectations and perhaps that can yield value going into Sunday.

Betting Fades

My only regret from Saturday’s Pocono Organics CBD 325 is that I should have been more aggressive in fading the Stewart-Haas Racing cars. I did fade Harvick in my biggest match-up but in reality the rest of the SHR brigade was there for the taking. I’m not exactly sure what is going on with Stewart-Haas Racing but one thing is abundantly clear; they are getting their ass kicked at the bigger tracks. Kevin Harvick struggled to finish in the top 10 despite playing the strategy game perfectly. Meanwhile, Aric Almirola, Chase Briscoe, and Cole Custer were all held to a sub-70 average driver rating. Almirola finished in the top 5 in both 2020 races and had an average running position of 19th on Saturday. Needless to say, all of the SHR cars are my main fade targets on Sunday if I can find decent match-up pairings. Another notable mention for fade material = Martin Truex Jr.

Draftkings 2021 Pocono Mountains 350 Optimal Lineup

2021 Pocono Mountains 350 Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +750 (.75 unit)
William Byron +800 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1000 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Elliott -110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Joey Logano -110 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -125 over Aric Almirola (2 units)