2021 Pit Boss 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday May 22nd, 4:00PM (EST) at Circuit of the Americas
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Shortly after the Toyota Tundra 225 concludes in the Camping World Truck Series, the Xfinity Series will have their opportunity to debut at Circuit of the Americas in the running of the Pit Boss 250. Saturday’s inaugural Xfinity Series’ race at COTA will feature one of the most talented line-ups of the season with names like Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Cole Custer, Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, and Boris Said who will all be prepared for 46 laps around this exciting 3.426 mile road course. Needless to say, this should be an exciting spectacle for fans and bettors.

The reason so many Cup Series drivers are participating is because they will be using Saturday’s race to prepare for Sunday’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix. Therefore, the drivers that participate in Saturday’s Pit Boss 250 should have a slight advantage over the rest of the Cup Series regulars who are all facing the challenge at Circuit of the Americas for the first time. Perhaps that is something to keep in mind as Sunday’s race approaches because I do believe that extra laps will benefit the Cup Series drivers that are doing double duty. While we await Sunday’s main event, all focus for now turns to Saturday’s Pit Boss 250 as we discuss the best betting opportunities for this stacked event.

For the Pit Boss 250, the first thing bettors should take into account involving the Cup Series drivers is the teams they are paired with this week. Kyle Busch returns to his normal part-time seat in the #54 with Joe Gibbs Racing which is far the best equipment of the part-time drivers. Kevin Harvick (B.J McLeod Motorsports), Austin Dillon (Bassett Racing), Tyler Reddick (Jordan Anderson Racing), and Cole Custer (SS Green Light Racing) are all in what can only be described as 2nd-tier equipment. In reality, most of these teams seldomly field Xfinity Series cars which limits my confidence in any of those drivers’ chances on Saturday. Again, these are not the type of seats that Cup Series caliber drivers would regularly climb into which proves the majority of these drivers are simply trying to learn as much as possible at COTA before Sunday’s main event.

Betting Strategy

I am going to keep this preview relatively brief for this race because I feel like there is absolutely no value in win/futures odds. Austin Cindric, Kyle Busch, and AJ Allmendinger are all listed at 4-1 odds or less. My opinion is that odds-makers have the top 3 guys correctly listed but I cannot justify those betting odds. I was personally hoping the stacked field would open up some value among the favorites but that did not come to fruition. As a result, I am not going to shed much optimism on win bets this week. I believe all of the value can be found in H2H match-ups which I believe odds-makers have made some relatively big mistakes behind the favorites. Therefore, I am keeping the majority of my focus on the H2H bets for this event!

Friday’s Practices

Without much surprise, Austin Cindric paced the field with the fastest lap in Friday’s lone practice. Cindric bested Daniel Hemric by less than a tenth of a second which is relatively surprising considering I did not have Hemric on my radar going into the weekend. After the practice session, I looked up Hemric’s stats on the road courses and found that he has been pretty decent. Despite inconsistency, Hemric has posted a top 5 at every road course venue the Xfinity Series visits which covers several different layouts. Perhaps, Hemric deserves more respect than initially believed.

At the top of the speed charts along with Cindric and Hemric, Tyler Reddick, A.J Allmendinger, and Kyle Busch rounded out the top 5. Reddick looked really solid in the #31 car for Jordan Anderson. In honesty, I did not see many surprises among the top drivers. Perhaps Alex Labbe deserves a mention due to his 6th fastest lap. However if you have followed Labbe’s career, you would know he is very strong at this style of racing. Outside of the top drivers, you have to scroll down the speed charts to find many of the Cup Series veterans. Again, the equipment factor cannot be overlooked and we saw that play out earlier this afternoon. Perhaps a less obvious notable mention was the lack of speed from Brandon Jones and Brett Moffitt. Both drivers have shown flashes of success at road course venues but struggled mightily in today’s lone session.

Betting Targets

I mentioned above that the top 3 drivers, in terms of betting odds, are justified. Austin Cindric, Kyle Busch, and AJ Allmendinger are the best road course talents in this field when you combine the equipment factor skill set. Each driver posted a fast lap that ranked inside the top 5 in today’s practices which means odds will likely not change among the favorites. Personally, I like Cindric and Allmendinger more so than Busch. COTA produces several challenges from elevation changes and various turn radiuses. Drivers will consistently have heavy braking zones that will go down to 1st gear where heavy focus will be on acceleration off and onto the longer portions of the track. I believe that favors the likes of Cindric and Allmendinger who have that well-known road course skill set. Obviously, I am not saying that Busch does not have that skill set. I just personally like Cindric and Allmendinger the most out of the group.

Like I stated before, my heavy focus for this event pertains to H2H match-ups and capitalizing on what I feel are questionable odds behind the top 3-4 drivers. I will mention candidates to fade in a moment but rest assured that all of the Cup Series drivers (outside of Busch) are overvalued based on the equipment they are piloting. Meanwhile, I look at guys like Noah Gragson, Alex Labbe, and Miguel Paludo as some vastly underrated talents. Gragson is my favorite betting target to pivot against the likes of Harvick, Reddick, and others. Despite not having any wins, Gragson has been very impressive on the road course layouts throughout his career with numerous top 5 and top 10 results. If he can avoid trouble, I feel like he is an excellent value option in match-up formats.

Alex Labbe has a fairly well-known reputation for strong performances on the road courses and should be considered in bottom-tier style match-ups. Meanwhile, Miguel Paludo is a driver that will likely not win a popularity contest. Paludo is 37-old journeyman that has competed sparingly in the ARCA Menards Series, Camping World Truck Series, and will be making his 4th official start in the Xfinity Series on Saturday. Despite numerous starts with inferior equipment throughout his career, Paludo received a great opportunity from J.R. Motorsports back at Daytona on the road course. The Brazilian took advantage of the opportunity and captured a respectable 7th place finish. In a race filled with overvalued drivers in bad equipment, Paludo is a pleasant contradiction that can be utilized to win match-ups. Despite a relatively subpar day in practices, I still expect the #8 car to perform well on Saturday.

Drivers to Fade

Simply put, I don’t have much faith in any of the equipment that Harvick, Reddick, Dillon, and Custer are piloting this week. Odds-makers are giving those drivers more credit simply based on their names but you can’t make slow cars go fast. Reddick showed great speed in practice which was relatively surprising but I’m still not overly confident in his chances. Obviously, I don’t want to fade a driver that put down a really fast lap on his debut at a specific track so I will avoid fading Reddick for that reason alone. For the rest of the Cup Series drivers that include Harvick, Dillon, and Custer; I would promote all out fade suggestions. If I had to list the Cup Series drivers to fade in a specific order, it would go Austin Dillon, Kevin Harvick, Cole Custer, and Tyler Reddick!

Draftkings Pit Boss 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 Pit Boss 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +300 (1 unit)
A.J Allmendinger +650 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1400 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1400 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Miguel Paludo +115 over Andy Lally (2 units)