2021 O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 21st, 2021. 3:15PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway Road Course
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The Cup Series returns to the sandy shores of Daytona Beach this Sunday for their 2nd straight appearance at Daytona International Speedway. Unlike last week’s chaotic superspeedway racing on the high-banks of Daytona’s 2.5 mile oval surface, NASCAR’s Cup Series will prepare to battle on the 3.61 mile road course this weekend at Daytona in similar fashion to the 2021 Busch Clash at the start of Daytona Speedweeks over a week ago. Instead of an invitation only event which took place in the Busch Clash, Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 will feature a full field of NASCAR’s best in the 2nd points paying event on Daytona’s road course.

For those that remember, Chase Elliott drove the #9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevy to victory lane in the inaugural race on Daytona’s road course in the Go Bowling 235 last August. The reigning Cup Series Champion has quickly become the best road course driver in the series with 4 consecutive wins in points paying races. Elliott was also in contention for the victory in the Busch Clash but tangled with Ryan Blaney on the last lap which allowed Kyle Busch to sneak by for the victory. Therefore, Elliott is without surprise a huge favorite for the Cup Series’ official return to Daytona’s road course at less than 3 to 1 odds at most major sportsbooks.

O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 Betting Preview

After evaluating odds across the industry this week, I have to admit there is very little value in win (futures) odds. Odds makers have not allowed any value leakage from the top two drivers in Elliott and Martin Truex who have won 7 of the last 8 races at road course venues. Personally, I don’t blame any sportsbook for posting extremely conservative numbers on both Elliott and Truex because there is a high likelihood one of those drivers makes their way to victory lane on Sunday again. With that being said, anything can happen in NASCAR especially at a 3.61 mile layout where pit strategy could easily come into play. Therefore betting the favorites seems risky meaning if we are going to bet on drivers for the outright win, we should take a look at the drivers with more valuable odds.

Despite the bleak win odds, this Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 is still a solid handicapping event that should favor bettors in the realm of match-ups and prop bets. Success at the road courses typically relies on a unique skill set and while Daytona’s road course is not extremely challenging, don’t be surprised if we see many familiar faces at the front of the field based on prior road course results. These are the types of races where we can rely on relative data to provide a strong baseline of expectations and can use our keen eye to identify bias in the odds based on those trends. As a result, I am optimistic we can extract some value from match-ups and props to help yield some profits.

Cup Series Road Course Loop Data

Since we only have one official race at Daytona’s road course with a full field of drivers, it felt pointless to provide data related solely to this week’s venue. Instead, I went back and extracted the past 8 races at the road courses to provide a more established trendset. For my fantasy racers, I also added the “average place differential” to highlight drivers that have traditionally added fantasy value based on start and finishing positions. Granted, this week’s lineup is not a result of qualifying and is based upon the rulebook which ties primarily into last week’s results in the Daytona 500.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Finish	Avg. Start	Avg. Place Differential	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Laps Led
Chase Elliott	126.4	6.5	5.4	-1.1	8	5	6	7	231
Martin Truex Jr.	122.1	4.63	6.1	1.47	8	2	5	7	142
Kevin Harvick	100.3	8.13	11.1	2.97	8	0	2	6	69
Kyle Larson	98	12.67	4	-8.67	6	0	0	3	60
Kyle Busch	92.6	19.63	8.1	-11.53	8	0	3	3	38
Denny Hamlin	91.6	9.88	11.5	1.62	8	0	3	4	26
Kurt Busch	90.9	10.13	15.5	5.37	8	0	2	5	8
William Byron	90.5	15.88	9.5	-6.38	8	0	0	4	71
Ryan Blaney	88.9	12.38	14.5	2.12	8	1	4	5	30
Kaz Grala	86.8	7	10	3	1	0	0	1	3
Brad Keselowski	86.2	15.5	14.4	-1.1	8	0	1	2	39
Erik Jones	84.2	13.5	17	3.5	8	0	3	5	2
Alex Bowman	83.4	9.63	13.1	3.47	8	0	2	4	2
Christopher Bell	78.3	22.5	25	2.5	2	0	0	0	6
Joey Logano	77.2	16.63	9.1	-7.53	8	0	1	4	5
Cole Custer	76	15.5	27	11.5	2	0	0	1	0
A.J. Allmendinger	75.5	20	5	-15	3	0	0	1	5
Aric Almirola	73.8	15.5	13.6	-1.9	8	0	0	2	0
Daniel Suarez	70.2	20	19.4	-0.6	8	0	1	1	0
Matt DiBenedetto	70.2	15.13	21.5	6.37	8	0	1	2	0
Tyler Reddick	69.8	15	17	2	2	0	0	0	0
Chris Buescher	69.3	15.13	16.9	1.77	8	0	1	1	0
Michael McDowell	67.8	19	19.9	0.9	8	0	0	1	0
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	65.8	19.63	22.1	2.47	8	0	0	0	2
Ryan Preece	61.3	24.6	20.6	-4	5	0	0	0	8
Ryan Newman	60.3	21	20.1	-0.9	8	0	0	1	0
Austin Dillon	56.4	25.57	23.6	-1.97	7	0	0	0	0
Ty Dillon	53.6	24.13	26.8	2.67	8	0	0	0	5
Bubba Wallace	48.2	26.75	28.5	1.75	8	0	0	0	0
Corey LaJoie	42.8	30.4	29.4	-1	5	0	0	0	0
Ross Chastain	37.1	27.6	34.6	7	5	0	0	0	0
Timmy Hill	32.5	33.75	34.3	0.55	4	0	0	0	0
Josh Bilicki	31.8	34.75	33	-1.75	4	0	0	0	0
Quin Houff	30.8	30.5	30	-0.5	2	0	0	0	0

When I look through the data provided above, there are a few things that stick out as outliers. For starters, Ryan Blaney has the most top 5 finishes (4) behind Elliott and Truex. Despite not being known as a road course talent, Kyle Larson 4th on our list with an average driver rating of 98.0. I’m not necessarily convinced that warrants a play on Larson due to his extended absence in 2020 and this being just the 2nd race of the year. Nevertheless, I was pretty surprised Larson has performed so well on the road courses. On the other end of the spectrum, we have to look way down the pecking order to find Joey Logano’s name. Before 2020’s races at Daytona and the ROVAL, Logano had failed to finish inside the top 10 in his last 8 road course starts. Logano did finish 2nd at the ROVAL (2020) and 3rd in the Busch Clash over a week ago which means he is definitely capable of running well. Just when we look at the law of large numbers, Logano’s typical trends are underwhelming for one of the Cup Series’ top talents.

Betting Targets

Obviously if you can find hidden value in the likes of Elliott or Truex, they are undeniably the top two threats going into Sunday’s race. If you cannot find that value, I personally believe Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney are your most likely spoiler options. Hamlin does not have the greatest road course resume but he has performed really well at Daytona’s RC in both appearances. Additionally, we could also argue that Hamlin is performing at the highest level throughout his career on the heels of a 7-win campaign in 2020.

When I look for H2H options this week, I believe the likes of Christopher Bell and William Byron are going to provide bettors with the sharpest value. Bell did not get a great opportunity to showcase his road course skills in 2020 as he ran into issues in both races at Daytona and the ROVAL. However, Bell remains a very underrated road course driver that should perform much better than the trends indicate. With better equipment this season, I expect Bell to take a step forward and Daytona’s RC is a great place to get the momentum going. Likewise, I am also high on William Byron this week. Byron has not progressed as fast as many expected in the Cup Series but he is slowly becoming a quality talent at NASCAR’s highest division. Relating his performance specifically to road courses, he has posted finishes of 6th, 8th, 6th, and 5th in his last 4 starts which includes the recent 5th place result in the Busch Clash at Daytona. As a result, this is an excellent spot to extract betting value for a driver that is typically paired against 10th-15th place competition.

Another driver that I believe deserves specific consideration this week includes former Cup Series veteran AJ Allmendinger who will be making his 1st start with Kaulig Racing. For those that have been around the sport for a while, Allmendinger’s Cup Series career was mostly forgettable with flashes of success on the road courses which culminated in the 12 year veterans only victory at Watkins Glen. Despite being out of the Cup Series for two years, Allmendinger has found success with Kaulig Racing’s Xfinity Series team in a part-time role which has produced 3 victories in 16 starts. Allmendinger has posted back to back Xfinity Series wins at the Charlotte ROVAL and that should be notable for bettors considering the ROVAL and Daytona’s RC are very similar in design. Allmendinger will also be competing in the Xfinity Series race on Saturday which should only help his momentum going into Sunday. I have no idea how Kaulig Racing’s Cup Series equipment will compare to the competition but if it is competitive; this is a spot where Allmendinger could run really well.

Drivers to Fade

One of the drivers that stands out as a fade option at every road course venue includes the aging Ryan Newman. Newman’s stats on the road courses have been awful throughout his career with a 21st place average finish throughout 41 career starts. I have voiced my opinion that Newman is in the dog days of his career as his performance continues to decline. Therefore if we can find decent drivers paired against Newman this week, I would suggest an outright fade for a driver that has cracked the top 10 just once in the last 12 starts at road course venues. Other potential options include guys like Matt DiBenedetto and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. If you want to fade a driver that is ranked higher up the ladder, Kurt Busch is my recommendation. The elder Busch has not looked good at Daytona and has finished 10th or worse in 5 of the last 6 starts at road course venues.

Draftkings O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 Predictions at Daytona

I hope my readers know that creating a multitude of line-ups with variance is the ideal strategy for winning a GPP in fantasy racing. With that being said, I usually tend to focus my fantasy explanation towards if we were constructing one optimal lineup. In that scenario, I think it is very hard to leave Chase Elliott off single lineup formats. Elliott will be starting from the pole as a huge legitimate favorite which gives him the option to rack up dominator points and be among the top fantasy scorers on Sunday. Martin Truex is slightly more expensive at $11,000 because he will be starting from the 19th position and possibly offers a slightly better ceiling. For some reason, Truex has not been high on my list this week. Perhaps, the blown chicane in the Busch Clash is fresh on my memory but Truex still has legitimate fantasy value. I simply favor Elliott over Truex out of the two options.

If you want to add another favorite to your line-up or even pivot against the top two guys, Ryan Blaney ($10,400) is an excellent option from the 27th position. I mentioned earlier that Blaney has posted top 5 finishes in 4 of the last 8 races and remains an underrated road course talent. Due to the deep starting position, Blaney has added value for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 253. In the intermediate range of drivers, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Alex Bowman ($9,600) and William Byron ($8,800) are begging for fantasy attention. I am particularly fond of Byron this week but Bowman has also performed respectively at the road course venues. Therefore, both drivers have considerable upside based on their starting positions.

When I look throughout the remainder of the field, there are not many obvious fantasy targets. Guys like Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Erik Jones seem to have potential to produce value. I would probably add Erik Jones ($7,800) to my optimal lineup from the 37th starting spot but I am more concerned about the Richard Petty Motorsports equipment he is driving this season. If you are looking for super cheap options, Daniel Suarez and Justin Haley are sub $6,000 fantasy options with upside. Suarez is starting near the rear of the field which adds place differential potential. Haley likely has the better opportunity to finish better but the risk pertains to his 20th starting position. Still, both drivers have the possibility to return value and save a lot of salary cap space.

2021 O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 Betting Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +1000 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1100 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -120 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Christopher Bell +100 over Matt DiBenedetto (2 units)
Total Cautions under 9.5 (-160) (2 units) *Odds courtesy of Bovada