2021 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday May 28th, 2021. 1:10PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The Camping World Truck Series will take center stage at Charlotte Motor Speedway this Friday night for the running of the NC Education Lottery 200. Last week, we were fortunate to take advantage of a wild debut at Circuit of the Americas to cash-in on Todd Gilliland’s surprise victory. This week Camping World Truck Series’ teams return to a more traditional 1.5 mile venue to kick off Coca Cola 600 and Memorial Day Weekend. Despite the return to a traditional layout, the Camping World Truck Series has provided advantageous betting opportunities throughout the year and we hope to take advantage again with our 2021 NC Education Lottery 200 race picks!

Similar to last week’s debut at COTA, NASCAR will host traditional practices and qualifying sessions for the 2nd straight week among all series. Truck Series practices were held earlier this morning and qualifying will take place at 5:35PM (EST) this afternoon. Due to the narrow time window following the end of qualifying and the start of the race, I would advise bettors to lock-in the majority of bets prior to qualifying for two major reasons. For starters, books are notorious for waiting until the last moment to repost betting odds following qualifying and are also notorious for overreacting to qualifying results. Since qualifying will be held in the afternoon sunlight and the race will be under the lights, qualifying may yield misleading results.

Practice Notes

Though practice took place in the early morning hours which will be different than tonight’s race conditions, track temp should be relatively similar once the green flag waves. Despite my enthusiasm for practices, I am not sure that I learned anything from practices that I was not already expecting. The majority of drivers only ran a handful of laps which lessens the effectiveness of long-run observations. Austin Hill ended the session with a fast lap of 177.684mph which was recorded on his final lap and appeared to mirror a mock qualifying run.

Again, I would not overly react to the following observations but I did want to mention a few things from practice. For the handful of laps run, Sheldon Creed looked really solid on the lap data I observed. John Hunter Nemechek and Austin Hill were unsurprisingly among the top trucks in speed as well. Among the less “favorite” type names, I was surprisingly impressed with Johnny Sauter who appeared to have solid speed. Also, Tyler Ankrum had decent speed in the #26 truck. Ankrum has not shown the greatest speed, nor has any of the GMS trucks, on the 1.5 mile surfaces this year but the young driver has posted two 3rd place finishes in the last 4 starts.

Loop Data

For this week’s loop data, I compiled Truck Series results from the prior 3 events at 1.5 mile venues that consist of Las Vegas, Atlanta, and most recently Kansas. Overall, the Truck Series tends to produce relative trending on performance at 1.5 mile venues and we have had just enough races to establish a baseline. From the data set, it is clear that John Hunter Nemechek has been in a category of his own with a lucrative 131.6 average rating. Personally, I believe John Hunter’s stats speak volumes and don’t need any additional approval. Perhaps the better question is who can dethrone John Hunter in tonight’s race? In our loop data, there is a concentrated group of drivers from Austin Hill, Stewart Friesen, Zane Smith, Sheldon Creed, Matt Crafton, and Ben Rhodes that have all produced relatively similar stat lines.

Interestingly, Stewart Friesen’s 7.3 average running position is the best among all drivers not named Nemechek on the 1.5 mile surfaces. I don’t believe odds-makers have given Friesen a lot of credit this season based on his performance but I can understand the logic. Despite the strong averages, Friesen has held minimal time outfront and struggled to capture the finishes that justify the speed in the #52 truck. With that being said, still don’t completely overlook the #52 in the realm of H2H match-ups. On the flipside of the performance spectrum, last week’s winner Todd Gilliland, Chandler Smith, and Derek Kraus are among the more popular names that have struggled on the 1.5 mile surfaces. Granted Smith and Kraus’ stats are slightly biased due to early race wrecks but they still have not shown great speed. Gilliland is likely the biggest surprise in terms of outright speed on the 1.5 mile venues among the more well-known drivers.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
John Hunter Nemechek	131.6	1.7	2.3	3.0	2.3	18	73	131	404
Austin Hill	110.4	14.7	9.7	2.7	7.7	55	25	0	404
Stewart Friesen	104.7	7.7	3.3	9.3	7.3	24	14	4	404
Sheldon Creed	102.5	6.0	11.0	18.3	9.3	-30	18	48	400
Zane Smith	101.5	16.0	13.3	6.3	10.7	11	4	0	404
Matt Crafton	98.6	6.3	9.7	12.3	8.3	-10	4	3	403
Ben Rhodes	96.6	3.0	12.0	12.0	9.7	30	0	2	403
Christian Eckes	92.9	11.0	14.5	6.5	11.5	4	0	3	274
Johnny Sauter	89.4	9.3	16.0	9.3	12.7	22	2	13	404
Brett Moffitt	88.4	13.5	10.0	10.0	11.5	37	4	13	264
Grant Enfinger	85.8	22.0	15.0	11.7	13.3	52	2	0	403
Todd Gilliland	83.6	7.0	9.7	12.0	13.0	-26	1	0	403
Tanner Gray	79.4	18.0	13.0	16.3	14.3	-25	5	0	402
Parker Kligerman	77.8	27.5	20.0	11.0	16.0	24	1	0	263
Chandler Smith	73.6	7.7	19.3	21.7	21.0	-39	18	0	398
Tyler Ankrum	73.5	19.7	10.3	22.3	16.3	-5	1	0	391
Derek Kraus	70.3	17.0	19.0	24.3	21.0	17	3	0	393
Austin Wayne Self	66.3	13.3	17.7	17.7	19.0	-11	0	0	401
Carson Hocevar	64.4	12.7	24.7	19.7	22.3	-15	1	0	402
Raphael Lessard	62.8	17.0	25.7	25.7	21.7	-33	1	0	385
Ryan Truex	62.3	29.0	22.7	24.3	21.3	22	3	0	371
Hailie Deegan	61.5	26.0	18.7	20.7	21.0	-8	0	0	399
Timothy Peters	58.6	19.0	20.3	22.3	22.7	-7	0	0	399
Chase Purdy	57.7	23.3	24.3	24.0	22.3	-31	0	4	400
Spencer Davis	56.3	29.0	23.0	24.5	23.5	5	1	0	266
Tate Fogleman	50.4	25.7	29.0	27.3	27.7	-7	1	0	392
Danny Bohn	50.2	22.7	29.7	23.7	27.3	-28	1	0	399
Dawson Cram	46.4	26.0	27.3	27.7	28.3	-42	0	0	397
Jordan Anderson	46.3	29.3	26.3	27.3	26.3	-29	0	0	397
Bret Holmes	42.1	35.0	29.0	32.0	29.0	10	0	0	370
Kris Wright	38.8	19.5	33.0	29.0	32.5	-5	0	0	267
Cory Roper	37.6	30.5	31.0	31.5	31.5	-13	0	0	238
Spencer Boyd	34.2	28.3	33.0	30.0	33.0	-23	0	0	392
Jennifer Jo Cobb	29.8	35.3	37.7	34.7	37.0	-15	0	0	353
Norm Benning	24.6	36.3	39.7	37.3	39.0	-5	0	0	237

Betting Targets

In a relatively short 200 mile race where less things can go wrong, John Hunter Nemechek is not only the top betting option but he may be the only betting option. Typically, I try to have at least 2-3 drivers on my cards for win/futures bets. For my readers, this is the type of event where we could deviate from that strategy and put a higher wager amount solely on Nemechek with a higher degree of confidence. Obviously, nothing is a guarantee in racing and for that reason I would suggest bettors take a hard look at Austin Hill in all betting formats.

Austin Hill and the #16 team have performed best on the 1.5 mile surfaces this year. In fact, Hill has produced finishes of 3rd (Las Vegas), 2nd (Atlanta), and 3rd (Kansas) on the prior 3 races on 1.5 mile surfaces. Needless to say, those stats cannot be overlooked. To be fair, Hill’s stats at Charlotte are underwhelming with a 9th place best finish in 4 starts. However, Truck Series performance is less about track history and is more favorable to current performance which is why I would boost Hill’s stock going into Friday. Other viable options that may deserve H2H consideration include the likes of Zane Smith and Matt Crafton deserve respect for their consistency in speed on the 1.5 mile surfaces.

For deeper options that may yield value in low-tier matchups or fantasy formats, I would throw out names like Ty Majeski and Stewart Friesen into that category. I understand Friesen will not be presented in low-tier matchups but I would consider Friesen a solid option against intermediate competition. I mentioned earlier the speed the #52 has shown this season and his underrated respect from odds-makers. Therefore if we can squeeze value from Friesen on disproportionate match-ups, I would consider him more heavily. Lastly, Ty Majeski will get an opportunity this week with Thorsport Racing. Majeski made several starts for Niece Motorsports in 2020 with marginal success and I think this is a rather big step-up in the equipment department. Likely an unknown on most people’s radar, Majeski has top 10 upside that cannot be overlooked.

Drivers to Fade

I alluded to Todd Gilliland’s struggles at the aerodynamic speed tracks like Charlotte earlier and I believe he is worth fading following last week’s victory that will undoubtedly raise his stock. If we can find Gilliland in match-ups against the top 4-5 favorites, I feel like we have a confident fade option. Additionally, I will continue to throw out names like Chandler Smith, Christian Eckes, and Derek Krause among the drivers that simply have failed to show speed this season. On a relatively flat-out track like Charlotte, driver talent is downgraded and we must focus on performance trends around raw speed.

Draftkings NC Education Lottery 200 Optimal Lineup

2021 NC Education Lottery 200 Betting Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +275 (2 units)
Sheldon Creed +500 (1 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2500 (.5 unit)