2021 New Holland 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 21st, 3:30PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off the racing weekend at Michigan International Speedway with the running of the New Holland 250. Like other venues, Michigan’s 2020 Xfinity Series date was cancelled due to COVID-19 meaning this week’s return will be the first race since Tyler Reddick scored a victory back in 2019. Oddly, Tyler Reddick is the only driver in Saturday’s field that has a Michigan win on his resume! Reddick will be stepping into the inferior ride for the #23 car with Our Motorsports. Therefore, there is a high likelihood we will see a first-time Michigan winner! Check out our 2021 New Holland 250 race picks to learn who we believe will find victory lane!

The Xfinity Series has not participated at many large ovals over the last two seasons and perhaps that makes Saturday’s New Holland 250 slightly difficult to predict. From a betting standpoint, I like to have a confident feel in the way I expect a race to unfold. Obviously, I am not always right but I stand by my predictions 90% of the time. For this week’s return to Michigan, I do not have that same confidence because we just have not witnessed the Xfinity Series compete at any similar tracks for nearly two years. As a result, my betting picks will follow a conservative approach.

With that being said, we do know the recipe for success at Michigan which revolves around raw speed. Michigan International Speedway is the fastest non-superspeedway on the schedule with speed eclipsing over 200mph. Believe it or not, the Xfinity Series’ cars will actually carry more speed than the Cup cars this weekend because of the 550 horsepower rules package in the Cup Series. As a result, these cars will be difficult to drive. Unlike the Cup Series cars which are nearly wide-open, Xfinity Series drivers will have to play with the throttle and try to maximize corner exit to carry speed down the straightaways. Therefore, we should give our betting attention to the teams/cars that have shown tremendous raw speed this year and to those drivers that are comfortable driving the car on the edge!

Betting Targets

From a pure speed standpoint, I believe Austin Cindric with the #22 team and Ty Gibbs with the #54 team have shown the best aerodynamic speed this season. Obviously, the #54 team has experienced the luxury of having tremendous talent behind the wheel with Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs for the majority of the season. Still, the #54 team has been fast everywhere, especially at the larger layouts. It is also worth noting that Justin Allgaier has also been really fast at the larger layouts when you consider performances from Pocono and Texas which rely on aerodynamic speed. However, I don’t label Allgaier in that “elite” group based on his relatively mediocre stats at Michigan which features just two top 5 finishes in 9 career starts.

Due to Gibbs limited experience at larger tracks, I give Cindric the slight edge among the favorites but that does not mean I am ruling out Gibbs’ chances by any means. Good luck finding great value on either Cindric or Gibbs as they have moved into the ridiculous favorite range at sportsbooks. Since we are looking for premier betting opportunities, I have to suggest both Noah Gragson and Daniel Hemric as my top dark horses for Saturday. I hate mentioning Hemric because he is 0 for a million in his career. However, the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have the best speed and Hemric has been among the fastest drivers this season at the “speed” tracks. In regards to Noah Gragson, he is my favorite sharp bet of the weekend. Gragson is the driver you want when you have to drive the car on edge and finished 2nd in his only career Michigan start back in 2019. After several disappointing weeks, this is the perfect bounce back opportunity for the Gragson.

Drivers to fade

I really don’t understand why Harrison Burton is listed as the 4th-5th overall favorite in this race. Burton has been the worst JGR car this season in terms of pure speed. More importantly, Burton has never raced at Michigan International Speedway in a stockcar. Unless sportsbooks know something I don’t, I believe Burton is grossly overvalued this week among the favorites. Another driver that I also have on my radar for fade considerations is Cup Series veteran Bubba Wallace. Like Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace will be stepping into inferior equipment this week with Hattori Racing. Unlike Out Motorsports and the #23 team which has produced some quality runs in recent weeks that will raise Reddick’s ceiling, the #61 car has not shown that same ceiling. Additionally, I’m not the biggest believer in Wallace’s outright talent and I believe this will provide one of those situations where we can fade the popular name to find value.

Draftkings New Holland 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 New Holland 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +530 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +900 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +1300 (1 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Noah Gragson +100 over Harrison Burton (3 units)
Sam Mayer -110 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)