NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday November 5th, 8:00PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The Camping World Truck Series will kick off championship weekend at Phoenix Raceway later this evening with the running of the Lucas Oil 150. John Hunter Nemechek, Ben Rhodes, Matt Crafton, and last week’s hero winner in Zane Smith are among the drivers competing for a championship. While the championship battle will ultimately be fun to watch, there are other drivers in tonight’s field that are worthy of betting consideration for multiple reasons. Therefore, let’s discuss the top betting options for tonight’s Lucas Oil 150 which will determine the Camping World Truck Series’ Championship!
Unlike the Xfinity Series and Cup Series which competed at Phoenix back in the spring, tonight’s Lucas Oil 150 will be the lone event for the Truck Series this season at Phoenix Raceway. Additionally, the Truck Series has competed at very few short-track venues throughout the season and even less venues that closely compare to Phoenix Raceway. Personally, I am feeling more confident in the weekend races between the Xfinity and Cup Series’ races. However, the Camping World Truck Series has been very profitable for bettors throughout the year so we are going to close out the year swinging for the fences.
From a handicapping standpoint, Phoenix Raceway most closely aligns with Richmond Raceway among the tracks that the Truck Series has competed on during the 2021 season. John Hunter Nemechek dominated the Toyota Care 250 back in April at Richmond for his 2nd of 5 victories on the season. Nemechek led 114 of 250 laps in that particular event which included car owner Kyle Busch who finished in the runner-up position. Obviously, Nemechek has been the most consistent front-runner in the field going into tonight’s race but I also feel like Nemechek has been more vulnerable on the shorter layouts throughout the 2nd half of the season. Therefore, we can confidently focus on betting value tonight because there are not overwhelming favorites despite what odds may suggest.
Loop Data
For this week’s loop data, I have compiled performance averages from stops at Richmond, Gateway, and Martinsville. Obviously, these are not the most ideal tracks to gauge performance expectations for Phoenix. However, I selectively chose this 3 race sample based on similarities required from the driver seat and timing of the events. Therefore, I believe this should give us a foundation of baseline expectations and then we can utilize practice sessions this week to formulate our betting picks.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Sheldon Creed | 114.8 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1 | 57 | 142 | 617 |
| Ben Rhodes | 112.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 617 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 108.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 20.7 | 10.7 | 2 | 70 | 116 | 537 |
| Todd Gilliland | 101.9 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 20.0 | 8.3 | -7 | 48 | 133 | 573 |
| Zane Smith | 101.3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 16.7 | 9.3 | -8 | 24 | 84 | 553 |
| Matt Crafton | 98.8 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 617 |
| Stewart Friesen | 98.0 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 19 | 12 | 0 | 617 |
| Carson Hocevar | 92.1 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 617 |
| Austin Hill | 90.5 | 4.3 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 23 | 10 | 2 | 611 |
| Grant Enfinger | 90.4 | 16.0 | 8.7 | 18.0 | 10.7 | 1 | 19 | 71 | 608 |
| Johnny Sauter | 90.0 | 20.3 | 11.0 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 42 | 18 | 0 | 614 |
| Chandler Smith | 86.0 | 13.7 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 17.3 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 577 |
| Derek Kraus | 83.4 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 19.7 | 13.0 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 614 |
| Tyler Ankrum | 77.8 | 20.7 | 12.7 | 20.3 | 15.0 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 565 |
| Tanner Gray | 73.7 | 18.0 | 17.7 | 15.3 | 15.0 | -5 | 1 | 0 | 614 |
| Hailie Deegan | 68.4 | 18.7 | 23.0 | 14.3 | 21.7 | -17 | 2 | 0 | 617 |
| Austin Wayne Self | 68.4 | 15.3 | 22.3 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -14 | 0 | 0 | 617 |
| Ryan Truex | 63.6 | 15.0 | 31.0 | 28.7 | 25.7 | -29 | 0 | 0 | 404 |
| Chase Purdy | 63.3 | 18.7 | 24.0 | 24.7 | 24.0 | -15 | 4 | 0 | 441 |
| Danny Bohn | 58.6 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 23.3 | 22.7 | -42 | 0 | 0 | 548 |
| Tate Fogleman | 54.1 | 20.0 | 31.3 | 23.7 | 27.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 448 |
| Dawson Cram | 48.4 | 34.0 | 23.3 | 26.0 | 26.0 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 569 |
| Spencer Boyd | 46.8 | 25.3 | 29.3 | 19.3 | 27.7 | -19 | 0 | 0 | 612 |
| Kris Wright | 45.1 | 23.3 | 29.7 | 22.0 | 28.0 | -28 | 0 | 0 | 577 |
| Corey Roper | 42.2 | 24.7 | 33.3 | 28.3 | 32.0 | -14 | 1 | 0 | 592 |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | 26.1 | 33.3 | 37.3 | 37.3 | 37.3 | -10 | 0 | 0 | 386 |
Friday’s Practice
For the first time in months, the Camping World Truck Series participated in a 50 minute practice session earlier today in preparation for tonight’s race. At the end of the 50 minute session, Todd Gilliland posted the fastest at 135.844 mph over Sheldon Creed, Tyler Andkrum, Chandler Smith, and Ben Rhodes. Gilliland has been among the most improved drivers throughout the season and dominated last week’s race at Martinsville before getting moved on a late race restart. Personally, I believe Sheldon Creed has been the most consistent front-runner in the Truck Series this season on the short layouts but Gilliland has a lot of momentum with the #38 team going into tonight’s race.
From an observational standpoint, Tanner Gray, Sheldon Creed, and Chandler Smith were among the drivers that stood out for different reasons. Gray is coming off his best finish of the season which included a 3rd place result at Martinsville and has shown improvement throughout the year. Meanwhile, Chandler Smith is one of those drivers that is not always consistent but typically produces his best results on the shorter layouts. Smith broke through for his 1st career victory at Bristol and then posted another top 5 finish in last week’s race at Martinsville. On the other end of the spectrum, championship contender Matt Crafton and Kyle Busch Motorsports driver Drew Dollar were among a couple of the popular names that really struggled to show speed from lap to lap.
Betting Targets
As I alluded to earlier, I feel like John Hunter Nemechek walks into tonight’s race as the assumed favorite based on holistic season performance despite the fact he has not won since Pocono in June. As a result, I believe there is better betting value to accommodate the probability factor around the likes of Sheldon Creed and Todd Gilliland who are definitely trending in the right direction. I mentioned earlier that I believe Creed is the best short-track talent in the Truck Series and it is worth mentioning that he is also the defending winner of the Lucas Oil 150 going back to last year’s championship victory.
Outside of futures (win) bets, Chandler Smith and Tanner Gray are my favorite targets for H2H and fantasy purposes. We will not know the extent of fantasy value until qualifying later this afternoon. However, both Smith and Gray offer tremendous upside based on the drivers they are paired against which should provide advantageous betting opportunities. I would also add that I am cautiously optimistic about the potential for Ben Rhodes going into tonight’s race; however I am not targeting Rhodes in betting formats because he is slightly overvalued. With that being said, I would not be surprised if Rhodes has a solid performance.
2021 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks
*Final*
Sheldon Creed +500 (1 unit)
Todd Gilliland +1000 (1 unit)
Match-Ups and Props
Sheldon Creed -125 over Zane Smith (2 units)
Tanner Gray -115 over Chase Purdy (2 units)
Todd Gilliland +100 over Matt Crafton (2 units)
