2021 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 23rd, 3:00PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off the racing weekend at Kansas Speedway on Saturday with the running of the Kansas Lottery 300. Last week, John Hunter Nemechek drove the #54 car to victory lane for Joe Gibbs Racing in just his 2nd start of the season. Nemechek’s victory stole a championship clinching ticket away from the playoff contenders and therefore no drivers are completely safe going into this week’s event at Kansas. While we await the championship drama to unfold, let’s discuss potential betting opportunities for the 2nd straight week of racing at a 1.5 mile intermediate speedway.

I would not describe Kansas Speedway as similar to Texas Motor Speedway in terms of banking. However, both tracks have a ton of grip which means drivers are able to stay in the throttle. The result of the on-throttle time puts heavy emphasis on raw aerodynamic speed and favors those drivers that can consistently sustain momentum with each lap. Therefore, last week’s race at Texas was a solid precursor for Kansas but I would also warn bettors that the top teams will be using different cars this week meaning we will experience some nuances at the front of the field. Simply put, we must be careful not to assume anything on a one-week timeframe and ensure our predictions follow the angles of the bigger picture including performance trends throughout the season.

Betting Strategy

I did not compile any different loop data viewpoints this week. I compiled loop data averages for last week’s race at Texas and those averages have hardly changed. With that being said, we know there is parity in the Xfinity Series among the top drivers like Austin Cindric, Justin Allgaier, AJ Allmendinger, and basically anybody driving the #54 car. We were fortunate enough to sweep all bets last week and still only netted 6.75 units. While that is nothing to be disappointed about, I believe that figure speaks volumes to the lack of value in these races among the top drivers. As a result, we must remain relatively conservative because there will be better betting opportunities on the horizon at Martinsville and Phoenix.

Betting Targets

For those keeping track, the driver of the #54 car has won 4 of the last 5 races on 1.5 mile tracks. Kyle Busch (2), Ty Gibbs, and most recently John Hunter Nemechek have all captured victories in the #54 machine. Obviously, that fact bodes well for Ty Gibbs who will be back in control of the #54 this weekend as the youngster seeks his 4th victory of the season. However if we keep betting value in mind, I am still gravitated to the likes of Daniel Hemric and Justin Allgaier as better value options. Allgaier has been among the better drivers throughout the season on the 1.5 mile venues and is coming off a solid 4th place result last week at Texas. Meanwhile, Hemric had his best performance of the season last week but fell one spot short for the 10th time in his Xfinity Series career. Hemric finished in the runner-up spot in last year’s Kansas Lottery 300 driving for J.R Motorsports and when you combine the speed the #18 has shown this year on the intermediate layouts; this is another great opportunity for Hemric to capture that elusive first victory.

For H2H and fantasy options, I am going to double down on Brett Moffitt for the 2nd straight week. I noticed a trend going into Texas that highlighted that the #02 team was showing solid progression throughout the year on intermediate layouts. Moffitt did not have the strongest performance at Texas but still easily pulled out the H2H battle with Myatt Snider in last week’s predictions. I am hoping/expecting a bounce back performance from the #02 team which should strengthen Moffitt’s H2H value. Another driver that may be worth consideration in all formats includes the #19 of Brandon Jones. Jones has won 2 of the last 3 races at Kansas and was the only driver that displayed the speed to contend with Chase Briscoe in last year’s dominating performance in the Kansas Lottery 300. Another deeper H2H option is Brandon Jones who will have a chance to bounce back from last week’s DNF.

Drivers to Fade

Since the field is extremely top heavy in the Xfinity Series, the drivers on my fade list this week should be for appropriate match-ups only and not automatic fades regardless of the match-up. With that being said, Jeb Burton and Harrison Burton are among the drivers that I believe have underperformed in recents weeks. I would preferably favor fading Jeb over the #20 of Harrison Burton. Though the Kaulig Racing cars have made tremendous improvements on the 1.5 mile layouts, I still do not believe that is the strength of their program and that is where Jeb Burton’s struggles have been most obvious this season. Additionally, I would list the likes of Sam Mayer and Riley Herbst among the drivers that continued to be overvalued on a near weekly basis as potential fade options as well

Draftkings Kansas Lottery 300 Optimal Lineup

2021 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Ty Gibbs +450 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +900 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1800 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Justin Haley -145 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Brett Moffitt -130 over Myatt Snider (2 units)