2021 Instacart 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 14th, 2021. 3:45PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last week, Kyle Larson scored the first victory in his return campaign with Hendrick Motorsports by winning the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It took Larson just 4 races to find victory lane with his new team and rest assured the garage area has taken notice as a new potential championship contender is emerging. On Sunday, the Cup Series will get back to action at the home of NASCAR’s championship at Phoenix Raceway for the running of the Instacart 500. Through 4 races this season, NASCAR’s top division has produced 4 different winners which begs the question; will we see a 5th winner on Sunday? It’s time to discuss those thoughts and more as we provide our 2021 Instacart 500 race picks for Phoenix!

If you haven’t noticed, this Sunday’s race at Phoenix will be the final stop in the notorious “West Coast Swing” for the Cup Series. Typically the West Coast Swing features 3 straight weeks of racing between Auto Club Speedway, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. However, the 2021 version of the West Coast Swing has been shortened due to the race cancellation at Auto Club Speedway. Therefore, this will be the final week of racing out west before teams and drivers head back to prepare for upcoming races at Atlanta and Bristol (dirt). With that being said, make no mistakes about the importance of this Sunday’s Instacart 500. Teams and drivers will be trying to find every ounce of speed and learn everything possible in hopes to return to Phoenix in November for a chance to run for the championship.

Phoenix Loop Data

I had a problem in my data configuration towards pulling in the fastest laps this week. I apologize the below table is missing that data element for this week but I will have it fixed going forward. Additionally, I pulled data for the last 6 races at Phoenix to provide a clear baseline on driver expectations. I explained in the Xfinity Series preview that Phoenix is a rather unique track in terms of success criteria. Driver input plays a big factor because there is an acute skill set for racing on flat surfaces. However, Phoenix is also important from the setup/chassis standpoint as well. Not necessarily for the aerodynamic speed like we see on 1.5 mile speedways but more so for handling issues that impact long-run speed.

Obviously, Kevin Harvick’s name would be the first to come to mind for most bettors. Harvick has been nothing short of spectacular at Phoenix with the most Cup Series all-time career wins (9) which includes a stretch of 6 out of 8 victories from 2012-2016. However, Kyle Busch surprisingly ranks 1st on this week’s loop data ratings with a strong 125.9 average rating over the past 6 races. In fact, Rowdy has a lucrative 3.6 average finishing position through his last 10 starts at Phoenix. I know I have been a bit back and forth on Busch this season following rather awful performances at Daytona’s road course and Homestead. However, Busch did have a really strong run at Las Vegas last week so if they can deliver another solid machine; this is a track where Rowdy could strike with some tenacity.

Ultimately, I don’t think there are many surprises among the top names on our loop data rankings. Despite Harvick’s dominance, Busch has 3 wins, Hamlin and Logano both have two wins, and Chase Elliott is the most recent Phoenix winner courtesy of his 2020 Championship. However, I do believe last week’s winner Kyle Larson deserves more respect than these numbers indicate. We have quickly learned Larson is going to be a factor this season and his history at Phoenix tells us he could be a factor again this week. With Chip Ganassi Racing, Larson finished 4th or better in 5 of his last 8 starts at Phoenix. It may be a reach to think Larson goes back to back this weekend but it definitely would not be a surprise either.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
Kyle Busch	125.9	6	2	5	5	491	6	3.33
Kevin Harvick	112.4	6	1	4	6	178	6.5	4.83
Denny Hamlin	108.2	6	1	4	4	183	4.8	7.83
Chase Elliott	107.9	6	1	2	3	262	2.5	14.5
Brad Keselowski	100.7	6	0	2	3	145	11.8	9.83
Joey Logano	98.6	6	1	2	4	278	7.2	13.17
Martin Truex Jr.	97	6	0	2	4	22	8.7	11.5
Kyle Larson	96.5	5	0	3	4	56	10	7
Ryan Blaney	93.8	6	0	2	3	98	6.2	16.5
Kurt Busch	89.7	6	0	0	3	66	12.5	13
Aric Almirola	89.4	6	0	2	4	33	13.5	9.67
William Byron	81.4	6	0	0	3	15	16.2	13.5
Tyler Reddick	76.2	2	0	0	0	0	25	26
Erik Jones	74.8	6	0	0	2	11	10	18.67
Ryan Newman	74.2	5	0	0	0	23	18.4	15.2
Cole Custer	74.1	2	0	0	1	0	15.5	18.5
Alex Bowman	72.2	6	0	0	0	0	7.2	21.83
Matt DiBenedetto	69.4	6	0	0	1	1	19.8	18
Christopher Bell	65	2	0	0	0	0	16	20.5
Austin Dillon	64	6	0	0	1	0	20.3	20.67
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	63.6	6	0	0	0	1	19	22.83
Daniel Suarez	58.2	6	0	0	1	0	24.2	22.33
Darrell Wallace Jr.	57	6	0	0	1	0	25.5	19.83
Ty Dillon	56.5	6	0	0	0	0	25.3	20
Chris Buescher	55.1	6	0	0	0	1	23.7	19.33
Michael McDowell	47.4	6	0	0	0	0	25.5	25.5
Ryan Preece	46.6	4	0	0	0	0	22.5	28
Ross Chastain	44.2	5	0	0	0	0	31.6	25.8
Corey LaJoie	39.4	5	0	0	0	0	28.8	32.6
Cody Ware	31.5	2	0	0	0	0	36.5	30
Garrett Smithley	31	3	0	0	0	0	36.7	34.33
Joey Gase	29.9	3	0	0	0	0	37.3	33
Quin Houff	29.8	3	0	0	0	0	34.3	34.33
Josh Bilicki	27.3	1	0	0	0	0	38	35
Timmy Hill	25.6	4	0	0	0	0	35.8	36.5

Betting Strategy

Before we dive into the betting targets that I believe provide the most value this week, I wanted to first talk about strategy yet again like I do most weeks. If you recall in last week’s Pennzoil 400, I advised against bettors laying a lot of risk due several uncertainties. I actually changed my tune on that strategy once H2H match-ups were released as I found a ton of value in the match-ups that were being offered. Luckily that change of strategy worked out as I was able to cash 3 out of 4 match-ups to yield a slight profit. I’m not going to say I would not be open for attacking more H2H options this week if given the opportunity but I am waiting to see the full release that includes all H2H options before making that choice.

The real reason I wanted to bring up betting strategy this week is to remind everyone this is the first race of the season using the 750HP package on a true oval. The Cup Series did use this package earlier this year at Daytona’s road course but I think everyone can agree that road course racing is a completely separate animal. During the 2020 season, the 750HP package, largely considered the short track package, did not produce many surprise winners. In fact, the winners included Chase Elliott (Daytona RC, Bristol (All Star) ROVAL, Martinsville, Phoenix), Brad Keselowski (Bristol, Loudon, Richmond), Kevin Harvick (Bristol, Dover). Meanwhile, Joey Logano (Phoenix), Martin Truex (Martinsville), and Brad Keselowski (Bristol) all scored wins using the 750HP package. Needless to say, we saw very few surprise or remotely surprising winners last year using this package. Therefore, we need to keep this fact in our thoughts while constructing lineups this week.

Betting Targets

I am not a big fan of Harvick this week and don’t exactly understand why Brad Keselowski is listed at just 5-1 odds despite never winning a race at Phoenix in the Cup Series. Kyle Larson is currently listed at 7.5-1 odds but I could make a much better case for him being in the 5-1 range that Keselowski is listed. The only hesitation I have around Larson is this will be a more difficult track for the #5 team to provide a strong setup with no prior races with Larson in the equipment and given the fact Alex Bowman did not have any success in the former #88 machine last season.

As a result, I am left with Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin as the best options among the favorites. Elliott is on the heels of his championship win at Phoenix last season and is in desperate need of a strong finish. Meanwhile, Hamlin remains the most consistent frontrunner in the Cup Series and has posted top 5 finishes in 4 of the last 6 races at Phoenix. At 7.5-1 odds and higher, Hamlin is the driver that is getting some rare value among the overall favorites and this is a good stylistic track for him as well. I really want to throw Kyle Busch into this group among the betting targets and there is a chance that I may take him still; however he just seems like the more risky option and we cannot waste too much value with so many drivers listed at short odds.

As I alluded to earlier, Phoenix has not been the greatest place for dark horses. If I had to pick a single driver that could truly deliver a “surprise” victory, I would go with Ryan Blaney at just less than 20-1 odds. Blaney finished 3rd in both 2019 races and finished 6th in the most recent November championship finale. The Team Penske cars have been excellent under the 750 HP package going back to 2020 and perhaps that provides some underdog value to the #12 machine. For H2H match-ups, I really like Aric Almirola and Bubba Wallace for sharp plays. Bubba has experienced terrible luck in the first few weeks but the smaller tracks is where I believe we will see the biggest difference with 23XI Racing. Wallace “wheeled” inferior equipment to finishes of 10th, 22nd, 25th, 19th, and 15th over his last 5 starts at Phoenix and there is absolutely no reason he should not improve on those trends barring any additional misfortune. This Sunday’s race is the perfect spot where we can pivot against Wallace’s early struggles and bet on a bounce back performance.

For similar reasons, Aric Almirola is also an interest H2H option this week. The #10 car will be starting in the 32nd position due to a couple of bad finishes in recent weeks. However, I believe bettors are forgetting that Phoenix is one of Almirola’s better tracks where he has posted top 10 finishes in 5 of the last 7 races. I know the SHR cars have not looked great in recent weeks but Almirola has been paired against mediocre competition as well. Like Bubba Wallace, I feel like this is a great bounce back opportunity if the team can just avoid the bad luck that has plagued them over the last few races.

Drivers to Fade

For clarity, I am not a big fan of Kevin Harvick this week based on Stewart-Haas Racing cars’ performance over the opening 4 races. Additionally, Harvick has just 1 win at Phoenix since the 2016 spring race. However, I am by no means suggesting that people should fade Harvick in H2H match-ups. I just want to make sure that is clear. It probably is an option worth considering but in my opinion Harvick is way too talented at Phoenix to fade. Therefore, this will be an instance of choosing to leave Harvick off my lineup rather than completely fading him in H2H formats.

There are two other drivers that I feel pretty confident in fading this week between the options of Alex Bowman and Austin Dillon. For Bowman, the fade recommendation is strictly based on his poor performance throughout his career at Phoenix. In 11 career starts, Bowman has only cracked the top 10 once which came in a 6th place result in 2016 after starting on the pole and leading the first half of the race. Outside that 2016 race, Bowman has never led another lap at Phoenix and has often struggled to crack the top 15. Given the strong speed the #48 team has shown in the opening weeks of the season, this may be the perfect opportunity to grab some fade value on Bowman at Phoenix.

For Austin Dillon, we have another eerily similar storyline. The veteran Richard Childress Racing has posted just 2 top 10 finishes through 14 career starts at Phoenix which resulted in finishes of 9th (2016) and 8th (2018). Unlike Bowman’s struggles, I actually understand why Dillon has routinely struggled at Phoenix. Simply put, this is not his type of driving style. Dillon is most dangerous at tracks where he can run the car deep into the corner and stay aggressive. Phoenix is the exact opposite where drivers must roll the corners and be patient. For that reason, Dillon has failed to posted a driver rating above 75 in 5 of the last 6 races at Phoenix and for that state alone; we can be confident in fading the #3 car on Sunday.

Draftkings Instacart 500 Optimal Lineup

2021 Instacart 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +750 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +800 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +1000 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Matchups and Props

Ryan Blaney -140 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Denny Hamlin +140 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Cole Custer -110 over Austin Dillon (2 units)