2021 In It To Win It 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 5th, 2021. 9:00PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Darlington Raceway is slated to bring an action-packed Sunday afternoon with a double header between the Camping World Truck Series and the opening race in the playoffs for Cup Series contenders with the running of the historic Southern 500. Before we turn our attention to Sunday’s main event, let’s take a moment to discuss the running of the In It To Win It 200 which will officially mark the 2nd race in the Truck Series’ playoffs. Just two weeks ago, Sheldon Creed secured his advancement to the Round of 8 with an opening playoff victory at Gateway. With nothing to lose, Creed enters Darlington among the overall favorites following his victory at Darlington earlier this year in the LiftKits4Less.com 200.

Creed is the reigning Truck Series champion and seems to be peaking late in the season just like we witnessed in last year’s championship run. With that being said, Darlington Raceway still provides the ultimate challenge for drivers’ this week. Despite prior success, nothing is guaranteed at Darlington. The track labeled “Too Tough To Tame” and “The Lady in Black” has earned its reputation. The spring race back in May produced 12 cautions for Truck Series competitors and rest assured Darlington will provide another steep challenge for a relatively young field of drivers. Unlike other series, the Camping World Truck Series just returned to Darlington last year for the first time since 2011. Therefore even the veterans in the Truck Series have limited experience at this tough 1.366 mile layout.

The tough aspect towards handicapping this race is that there are not any tracks that can closely compare to Darlington Raceway. The significant tire wear the racing surface produces is along the lines of what we see at Homestead and Atlanta; perhaps even more significant. However, the layout of the track and the banking is unlike any other of its kind with two completely distinct corners. Despite the disposition, Darlington remains a driver’s track where handling and raw speed take a backseat to drivers’ ability behind the wheel. As a result, our betting focus should be geared towards the top talents even if that means sacrificing value. If you look through the history books, the top driving talents in the sport consistently rise to the top at Darlington and that is a testament to how skilled you must be to conquer The Lady in Black.

Betting Targets

By my analysis, Sheldon Creed and John Hunter Nemechek have a big edge over the rest of the competition. Creed obviously looks like the square pick following his victory in May but he also led a race-high 82 laps in last year’s Darlington race which is often overlooked. Nemechek was the strongest driver/truck combination throughout the majority of the spring race and posted the highest average rating (137.8) in that single-race performance. Personally, I give Nemechek the edge which aligns with current betting odds but I don’t believe the gap is that far back to Creed. In fact, Creed is getting twice the betting value at some sportsbooks which yields the determination that the #2 truck may provide the best betting value.

Obviously picking the favorites is not a difficult challenge, therefore let’s talk about the drivers that could provoke betting opportunities. A driver that I believe has sneaky H2H value includes series veteran Matt Crafton. Crafton has that “Martin Truex” driving style which is perfect for Darlington because equipment management is so important. Crafton finished 4th back in the spring race and actually has 8 Darlington races under his belt due to his long tenure in the series. Crafton has performed well in all of those events and I would not be surprised with another Top 5 style performance on Sunday. Another driver that deserves respect in the betting category is Ben Rhodes. Rhodes has finished 1st and 2nd in the last two races at Darlington with a triple digit average rating in both events. Rhodes provides dark horse appeal but sharper value in the realm of matchups.

For the record, I think highly of Austin Hill for Sunday’s race but I just don’t believe Hill will produce enough H2H value to target in matchups. Another pair of potential betting targets include Chandler Smith and Stewart Friesen. I am cautiously optimistic for Friesen because he typically runs better on the low-grip surfaces and the team has shown speed in recent races. However, Friesen is still one of those drivers that is difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis. For Smith, I really like the momentum the #18 team has shown during the 2nd half of the season. Something has clicked within the driver seat and Smith is showing the speed that we know Kyle Busch Motorsports is capable of producing. After a few disappointing finishes, this could be the perfect bounce back spot for a team that needs something good to happen to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Drivers to Fade

Todd Gilliland has been on fire during the 2nd half of the season but I believe his floor is much lower than experts would believe this week. Traditionally, Gilliland has not performed great at the low-grip venues and while I hate to fade momentum; I’m just not sure Gilliland belongs within the top-tier group of drivers. If you follow the driving style and low-grip narrative, Darlington Raceway has not produced Zane Smith’s best efforts either. Smith has finished 16th in both of his starts at Darlington and while he has run better than the finishes suggest; it has not been overly impressive with an average running position of 10th in those two events. Lastly, I would throw out some additional fade options that include the likes of Josh Berry and Johnny Sauter among bottom-tier options.

Draftkings In It To Win It 200 Optimal Lineup

2021 In It To Win It 200 Betting Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +300 (1.5 units)
Austin Hill +850 (.5 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ben Rhodes -115 over Todd Gilliland (2 units)
Matt Crafton -120 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)