2021 GoodYear 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday May 9th, 2021. 3:30PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The major theme of the season continued last week at Kansas Speedway as Kyle Busch became the 9th different winner through the opening 11 races of the season. In last week’s Buschy McBusch Race 400, Rowdy outlasted Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and others on multiple late race restarts to score the hard earned victory. Tomorrow NASCAR’s best return to action for a date with the Lady in Black at Darlington Raceway for the running of the GoodYear 400. Just as we have witnessed throughout the season, our handicapping trends believe this week’s stop in Darlington could produce yet another 1st time winner! So far we have nailed both race winners this weekend in the Truck Series and Xfinity Series. Tomorrow we should have another solid opportunity to go for the sweep! Check our 2021 GoodYear 400 race picks for Darlington Raceway!

During the 2020 season, the Cup Series visited Darlington on 3 separate occasions due to scheduling adjustments stemming from COVID-19. Last year’s dynamic duo in Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin swept all Darlington races led by Harvick who captured multiple Darlington victories. Both Harvick and Hamlin are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers at Darlington yet in an ironic twist of fate this year; both drivers will enter this weekend’s race at Darlington seeking their first victory of the season after combining for 16 wins last season. Hamlin has been in position in multiple late-race scenarios this season to pull off a victory but has failed to get the job done. Hamlin took the lead from Larson with less than 30 laps to go and then got into the outside fence in last week’s race at Kansas. Last week’s blunder was the 2nd time in the last 3 races where Hamlin was leading with less than 30 laps to go yet failed to get the victory.

Obviously Hamlin is performing at a high-level which is the reason he keeps being in position for these potential victories. The current points leader has shown the speed and now gets the opportunity to get the job done at one of his best tracks. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick has not shown the speed we are accustomed to expect from the veteran this season. However, the #4 team had a much-needed strong performance at Kansas last week which resulted in a 2nd place result. Personally, I have been critical of the Stewart-Haas Racing teams’ performance this season and while I believe there are still legitimate concerns; they seemed to have found “some” speed at Kansas. Fortunately, Darlington is one of those tracks which is not solely reliant on aerodynamic speed. This track is more reliant upon the driver fighting the car through the corners on a low-grip surface and finding a way to salvage tire wear to yield long-run speed. Needless to say even with the performance concerns, Darlington is a place where Harvick can still strike and get that first victory of the year.

Darlington Rules Package

This week’s race at Darlington will be different from all 3 races last season based on the rules package for this Sunday’s GoodYear 400. In last season’s 3 races, Cup Series’ teams utilized the 550HP package that most consider the “high downforce” package. On Sunday, Cup Series teams will utilize the “low downforce” package that also yields 750HP. It is the same package the Cup Series has run at the likes of Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, and the road courses this season. However, it will be the first time the teams have utilized this package at Darlington.

Obviously you are probably wondering what does this mean for bettors? Technically, it means that we have to give some consideration to the 750HP performance this season though Darlington is a completely different type of track. Ultimately this lower downforce package should favor the “drivers” more than the setups this week. I’m not sure if it really changes a lot. However, I don’t think last week’s strategy of performance on the 1.5 mile speedways will be useful this week and perhaps we give more credit to the teams, like Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske, that have been best under this specific package.

Darlington Loop Data

The good thing about this week’s loop data is that the majority of the races are extremely recent because of the 3 events held at Darlington Raceway last season. Despite the change in rules package this week, Darlington remains a track that trends with driver performance. The reasons this remains true is relatively simple. Darlington Raceway is a difficult track for drivers because of the narrow track, low-grip/slick conditions, and extreme tire wear. Typically in the night races at Darlington, the groove can move right against the wall but we will have to see if that happens this Sunday in the afternoon hours. Either way, it is a difficult track to master which is why we see a lot of the same drivers at the front of these events.

From our loop data, you will realize that Kyle Larson stands out with a lucrative 133.4 rating but keep in mind that is over just 2 races because Larson missed all 3 events last year while serving a suspension. Despite not having any wins at Darlington in 6 career starts, Larson has been very strong with finishes of 3rd or better in 3 of the last 4 starts. In the 2018 Southern 500, Larson won the opening two stages and led 284 laps but failed to get the victory which resulted in a 3rd place result. Obviously with the upgrade in equipment and superb performance this season, Larson will likely be in the hunt for the victory again on Sunday. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, Erik Jones, and Brad Keselowski are among the remaining drivers with 100 plus average ratings over the last 5 events. Personally, I believe Truex should be given extra consideration this week due to his performance this season with the 750HP package which includes wins at Phoenix and Richmond. Truex is the only driver to win multiple races this season and both of those victories were produced by this week’s rules package.

A few other key outliers from our loop data includes Erik Jones which is trending very high on this week’s loop dating ratings. Obviously, Jones will be driving inferior equipment this week compared to the prior stats he posted with JGR at Darlington. However, Darlington has been Jones’ best track where he produced a surprise victory in the 2019 Southern 500. Though I would not give Jones’ underdog credit this week for the outright victory, the #43 should be on everyone’s radar for potential H2H match-ups. Additionally, I would also like to point out the drivers on the opposite end of the spectrum. Ryan Blaney is one of the top drivers that has struggled tremendously at Darlington. Not only does Blaney have a measly 75.8 average rating but he has posted just 1 finish inside the top 15. With a surprise average running position of 18th, Blaney will be a driver worthy of undeniable fade consideration.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	133.4	2.5	4.5	2.5	2.5	9	115	328	734
Kevin Harvick	116.4	13.4	3.4	2.6	6.8	48	119	201	1602
Martin Truex Jr	106.8	12.2	11.8	12.8	10.0	-15	159	242	1600
Erik Jones	106.3	17	8.8	5.2	8.4	90	79	106	1602
Brad Keselowski	103.3	5.8	11.4	6.8	9	15	65	130	1602
Chase Elliott	99.1	9.6	11.4	17.2	8.2	14	101	151	1592
Denny Hamlin	98.4	7.6	4.6	11.6	8	4	63	42	1591
Kurt Busch	98.1	13.8	10.0	7.8	10.2	41	108	99	1602
Joey Logano	97.4	8	15.2	8.6	10.4	-11	38	37	1601
Kyle Busch	96.9	16.6	10.6	9.0	10.8	48	71	118	1601
Alex Bowman	95.1	9	10.8	13.4	11.4	-13	123	42	1598
Aric Almirola	82.6	13.2	14.2	11.8	14.4	39	8	0	1601
William Byron	82.3	13.2	13.2	21.6	14.2	10	22	3	1548
Tyler Reddick	76.8	22.3	18.3	14.3	16.7	55	20	0	867
Austin Dillon	76.2	14	16	11.8	16	-29	10	0	1602
Ryan Blaney	75.8	10.0	24.6	17.8	18.2	-5	16	0	1600
Ryan Newman	73.2	17.6	12.6	17.2	16.4	23	15	5	1599
Matt DiBenedetto	67.6	14	18.2	18	18.8	-41	4	0	1488
Cole Custer	66.1	16.7	19	21.7	20.7	-29	3	0	866
Chris Buescher	65.1	21.4	16	21.2	20	-49	15	0	1593
Ryan Preece	61.8	20.25	24.75	24.5	23.5	-24	1	0	1094
Christopher Bell	60.3	24.3	15.7	23.0	21.3	-5	3	0	850
Bubba Wallace	55.3	22	26.2	25	24.2	-86	17	3	1446
Daniel Suarez	54.9	22.2	25.4	23.4	24.4	-60	4	1	1588
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	54.7	27.4	28.8	25.8	26.6	41	15	0	1292
Michael McDowell	54.0	24.4	23.2	22.8	24.4	-2	0	0	1507
Corey LaJoie	43.4	27.6	29.4	31	29.8	-3	2	0	1420
Ross Chastain	39.6	32.7	32	28.3	31.3	13	2	0	1081
Quin Houff	33.8	31.3	34.7	31.0	34.0	-1	0	0	701
Josh Bilicki	32.2	39	33	33	34	-6	2	0	642
Joey Gase	31.5	35.8	35.8	33.2	34.8	-12	4	0	1316
Timmy Hill	29.9	35	36.25	34.5	36	-7	8	0	1054
Garrett Smithley	28.7	33.3	36.3	35.3	36	-10	5	0	675
B.J. McLeod	28.2	37.5	36.75	36.5	37	3	0	0	756

Betting Targets

This Sunday’s GoodYear 400 will be similar to recent races in the Cup Series under the notion that it would not be surprising to see 6-8 of the top drivers in victory lane if things go their way. Obviously some teams are going to unload a car that is off the mark and others may yield some surprise value. Unfortunately, the continued absence of practices provides less of an opportunity to identify these anomalies. If things go consistent with all of the handicapping angles that I have observed this week, I believe this will be Kyle Larson’s race to lose. I was big on Larson last week but I feel like his odds were overvalued as he moved from 9-1 odds at opening to 5-1 odds by the time the green flag waved. For this week’s race, I think you can make the argument that Larson could be the biggest favorite of the season.

As I have stated multiple times this season, win/futures odds do not provide a ton of value especially if you want to wager on the favorites. Due to Hamlin’s performance this season and track history at Darlington, there is no way you can ignore his potential this week. However if you want to pivot against the top two favorites, I do like the better odds value in Martin Truex Jr and Kevin Harvick. I believe the rules package change favors those drivers, more than anyone, for this week’s GoodYear 400. In the last 10 starts at Darlington since joining SHR, Harvick has finished outside the top 5 on just one occasion in the 2017 Southern 500. Meanwhile, I mentioned earlier Truex has been the best under this specific package. Perhaps more than the package/performance trends, I like Truex a lot at Darlington because he is one of the best long-run speed drivers in the sport which will likely be even more important this week with less downforce.

In terms of H2H match-ups and prop betting targets, I am putting my focus on the likes of Tyler Reddick, William Byron, and Erik Jones. I know those names are all over the map. However, I will break them each down specifically and why I have them on my radar. For Erik Jones, I am solely looking to see if he will have bottom-tier match-up appeal. I mentioned that Darlington is one of Jones best tracks but he is also now with Richard Petty Motorsports therefore he only provides value if he continues to be listed with bottom-tier drivers. If his stock is elevated this week, I will likely avoid him all together. William Byron has been my most reliable weekly target. I am a huge fan of the #24 team’s performance and Byron’s progression which has yielded a lot of profitable match-ups this season.

For Darlington specifically, I feel like Byron will have some dark horse appeal this week. Byron’s stats are not amazing at Darlington but they don’t exactly tell the entire story either. Byron won the opening stage in the first race at Darlington in 2020 but had a tire go down in stage 2. Despite a lot of poor finishes, Byron has run well and scored a career best 5th place finish at Darlington last September. With the continued improvement, I’m expecting the #24 to be solid again this week. For Tyler Reddick, I am putting him on the list because he is an absolute wheel man and Darlington is tailored to his skill set especially if the top groove comes into play. I don’t believe the Richard Childress Racing cars have been given enough credit this year which is why I pulled the trigger on Austin Dillon +200 prop bet at Kansas for a top 10 finish. Reddick deserves similar consideration this week.

Drivers to Fade

I mentioned Ryan Blaney’s name above is a driver with undeniable fade consideration due to his miserable Darlington stats. Blaney has struggled at the non-1.5 mile tracks where tire-wear is significant and especially at the tracks where rear-tire wear is significant. Blaney’s Darlington stats are very similar to Richmond where we faded the #12 a few weeks ago. Blaney actually had one of the fastest cars at Richmond but still faded as the race progressed to an 11th place result. I expect this to be another track where Blaney fades as the race progresses but should only be faded against top-tier talents.

Additionally, I am adding Bubba Wallace’s name to the fade population until I see a trend reversal. I personally thought Wallace would benefit tremendously with 23XI Racing this season but that has not been the case at all. Want to hear a crazy stat? Wallace has not even posted a top 15 finish this season after posting 11 top 15 finishes last year. I faded Wallace last week against Cole Custer. Custer and the #41 team had an awful performance and they still out-performed Wallace straight-up in that H2H match-up. Simply put, Wallace deserves straightforward fades until the #23 team proves things have changed.

*The SHR cars (excluding Harvick) are also worthy of fade consideration based on performance trends. I just have not seen much value (match-up pairings) on the other side of those match-ups. If your book provides value in drivers fading the likes of Briscoe, Custer, and Almirola, those drivers should be given fade consideration as well.

Draftkings GoodYear 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 GoodYear 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +600 (1.5 units)
Martin Truex Jr +800 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +5000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -115 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Ryan Newman -115 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Erik Jones +325 wins Group 5 (Almirola, Buescher, and Suarez)(1 unit)