2021 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 8th, 2021. 3:00PM (EST) at Watkins Glen
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Following a rare two week break, NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to center stage on Sunday at Watkins Glen with the running of the Go Bowling at the Glen. Despite a couple of weeks of inactivity, Cup Series’ teams and drivers will return to racing without any practice or qualifying sessions this weekend for the first race at Watkins Glen since 2019. Obviously, road course racing has become more common at NASCAR’s highest division and Sunday’s race will officially go down as the 4th road course event of the season with two events still on the calendar including next week’s inaugural Cup Series’ race at the Indianapolis Grand Prix. Therefore, get ready to gear up for multiple weeks of road course racing starting with this Sunday’s 2021 Go Bowling at the Glen race picks!

So far this season, there have been 3 different winners at the road course races. Christopher Bell delivered a stunner back in February at the Daytona Road Course. Chase Elliott struck next with a victory in a rain shortened debut at Circuit of the Americas. Kyle Larson struck gold in dominating fashion at Sonoma and most recently Chase Elliott scored another road course victory at Road America. Personally, I believe Elliott’s victory at Road America may have been among the most impressive victories among his illustrious road course resume. Elliott did not adapt quickly to Road America’s layout but got better with every lap before taking over at lap 46 to lead the final 17 laps to victory.

At 25 years old, Elliott already ranks 3rd all-time in NASCAR for road course victories with 7 career wins. To put things into better perspective, Elliott has won 7 times in his last 12 starts on road course layouts and has two additional runner-up finishes. Simply put, Elliott has been absolutely incredible on the road course layouts and is just one victory away from tying Tony Stewart (8) for 2nd all-time. On Sunday, Elliott will once again be in a prime position to add to his luxurious road course resume at perhaps his favorite road course venue. Elliott captured his 1st career victory at Watkins Glen back in 2018 and completed an encore performance with another victory at the Glen in 2019. Due to COVID-19, Watkins Glen was removed from the 2020 schedule which means Elliott will be looking to make it 3 straight victories when he takes the green flag on Sunday. If you combine the stats with performance trends from the season; Elliott deserves to be among the biggest favorites of the season for Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen.

Loop Data at the Road Courses

Obviously nothing is guaranteed in racing and road course racing produces a lot of strategy options from the pit box. Aside from Elliott, Kyle Larson has been the 2nd best driver overall at the road courses. Larson dominated at Sonoma and many forget that he was in position to challenge Bell back at Daytona before getting into a late-race incident. Despite the strong trends this season, Larson’s victory at Sonoma remains his lone victory on the road courses. I know Larson is performing much better compared to historical trends with his move to Hendrick Motorsports but I’m not sure that justifies his current betting odds which appear to be extremely overvalued.

In terms of overall thoughts in the 2021 loop data performance at the road courses shown below, Joey Logano stands out as the most underrated driver among the favorites. Logano’s average running position (9.0) and average finishing position (6.0) rank 3rd and 2nd among all drivers this season. I have pointed out on several occasions that the #22 team has performed extremely well all season with the 750hp package and those trends can be validated at the road courses as well. Logano is a former winner (2015) at Watkins Glen and perhaps deserves some extra attention going into the weekend. Another driver that stands out on the 2021 loop data observations includes Ross Chastain. Chastain does not have any dark horse appeal but could be a solid flier in H2H/fantasy formats with an impressive 89.7 average rating this season at the road courses.

In the bottom graph, I have also provided loop data metrics for the last 5 races at Watkins Glen. Personally, I like the performance trends above over the historical track metrics because they seem to be a better baseline for expectations. With that being said, it is still hard to ignore the triple digit ratings from Martin Truex, Kyle Busch, and Erik Jones over the last 5 races at the Glen. Truex scored a victory at the Glen in 2017 and Busch is a two-time winner (2008 & 2013). Meanwhile, Erik Jones stats are also impressive with finishes of 10th, 5th, and 4th in 3 career starts. The biggest question, for Jones, going into Sunday is can he replicate those results with Richard Petty Motorsports? If not, perhaps those performance trends vault Christopher Bell’s expectations as he will be in Jones’ former #20 machine and has already shown solid success this season at similar layouts.

*Loop data reflects 2021 road course races at Daytona, Circuit of the Americas, Sonoma, and Road America

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	125.6	11.3	4.0	6.3	6.3	49	47	86	278
Kyle Larson	112.9	3.3	11.0	12.3	6.8	22	35	61	278
Kyle Busch	106.0	15.8	8.5	13.3	11.0	31	12	18	277
Joey Logano	106.0	11.0	24.0	6.0	9.0	68	6	29	278
Martin Truex Jr	98.1	16.0	14.3	14.8	13.0	46	15	4	248
Denny Hamlin	97.9	8.3	7.3	7.5	9.8	38	6	7	278
Kurt Busch	95.6	19.0	6.0	10.3	10.3	42	3	10	278
Ross Chastain	89.7	16.5	19.5	14.3	16.0	6	5	4	234
Christopher Bell	89.4	13.8	16.8	16.3	16.0	19	19	5	242
Alex Bowman	86.7	16.3	14.5	12.3	13.8	17	3	3	278
A.J. Allmendinger	84.6	14.7	25.0	13.7	16.0	74	7	2	186
Austin Cindric	80.6	4.0	20.0	31.5	18.5	-72	1	6	89
William Byron	78.3	7.8	9.3	28.0	15.0	-50	11	20	261
Michael McDowell	76.8	16.0	19.3	18.3	17.3	-3	3	3	278
Tyler Reddick	76.6	9.8	11.0	18.5	16.0	14	4	5	266
Chris Buescher	75.2	20.5	17.5	14.5	16.0	-14	1	0	278
Chase Briscoe	74.2	26.3	16.3	15.3	17.5	-8	0	0	278
Brad Keselowski	73.2	17.0	15.5	13.0	17.8	37	0	0	278
Austin Dillon	71.6	15.5	19.8	17.5	17.8	-22	0	0	277
Erik Jones	70.8	26.3	16.8	15.0	18.8	2	1	0	278
Ryan Blaney	70.7	16.0	21.5	15.5	19.8	-1	1	0	278
Matt DiBenedetto	70.7	19.3	16.0	23.3	17.8	-95	4	10	273
Kevin Harvick	66.9	12.3	20.8	23.0	20.0	3	2	0	243
Cole Custer	63.6	16.3	28.0	21.5	20.8	46	0	0	248
Aric Almirola	61.9	24.3	19.5	21.0	19.8	-59	0	1	278
Ryan Preece	59.3	25.3	23.8	21.3	23.5	24	3	2	222
Daniel Suarez	58.5	19.3	25.3	24.3	27.3	-59	5	2	261
Bubba Wallace	57.3	19.8	27.0	25.8	26.3	-116	0	0	242
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	56.5	22.5	32.8	22.3	25.3	40	2	0	226
Corey LaJoie	53.2	19.3	19.5	22.5	22.5	3	0	0	278
Anthony Alfredo	47.5	30.0	21.8	27.0	26.3	-111	0	0	258
Ryan Newman	46.6	29.8	16.5	27.3	24.0	-54	0	0	278
James Davison	44.1	32.3	29.3	26.3	29.5	75	0	0	278
Justin Haley	41.2	24.0	23.0	29.7	30.7	5	0	0	144
Josh Bilicki	40.5	29.3	28.5	29.5	30.0	40	0	0	276
Cody Ware	39.8	30.5	31.8	30.5	30.0	-11	0	0	269
Garrett Smithley	33.7	32.3	31.7	29.0	31.7	-18	0	0	216
Quin Houff	27.8	33.8	34.8	36.0	35.3	9	0	0	172

*Loop data reflects last 5 races at Watkins Glen

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	120.4	6.0	7.5	7.0	7.5	-27	67	141	360
Martin Truex Jr	116.3	5.4	3.4	7.4	5.8	40	76	35	450
Kyle Busch	114.6	4.0	10.8	5.8	8.0	108	83	59	450
Erik Jones	104.8	9.7	5.7	6.3	7.3	-17	2	0	270
Brad Keselowski	101.2	11.6	12.6	10.2	8.6	-26	27	75	450
Denny Hamlin	97.7	7.4	9.8	9.6	10.0	3	9	12	450
Kevin Harvick	93.5	13.8	9.0	13.8	12.0	-42	12	29	443
Daniel Suarez	92.5	14.7	13.3	8.0	12.3	-11	1	14	270
Kurt Busch	90.0	18.4	11.8	8.2	12.6	25	3	3	450
Kyle Larson	89.8	4.2	18.2	15.6	12.0	-96	17	6	449
Ryan Blaney	85.4	16.3	15.0	11.0	13.3	-25	3	2	360
A.J. Allmendinger	85.2	6.3	16.5	13.0	14.3	78	7	21	360
William Byron	80.4	9.0	18.5	14.5	14.0	20	1	0	180
Joey Logano	75.1	12.6	19.8	17.4	18.0	-2	16	9	361
Michael McDowell	66.9	15.8	17.6	16.6	18.2	-17	0	0	450
Alex Bowman	66.0	26.0	19.0	19.0	19.7	-23	0	0	270
Aric Almirola	62.5	20.0	24.4	19.6	24.2	18	0	0	450
Ryan Newman	62.3	19.0	19.2	20.0	20.0	3	0	0	450
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	59.6	23.4	18.8	24.6	23.0	-32	0	0	411
Chris Buescher	58.4	22.0	26.2	22.2	23.8	-2	0	0	447
Matt DiBenedetto	55.7	29.4	20.4	25.4	23.8	39	0	0	428
Austin Dillon	46.8	21.4	27.2	30.2	25.6	-112	0	0	446
Bubba Wallace	42.8	29.5	30.0	26.5	26.5	37	0	0	179

Betting Targets

Chase Elliott has saturated all of the value around futures (win) bets this weekend and rightfully so when you consider the stats referenced above. If we are going to pivot against Elliott to simply find better value, Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano are the best options in terms of probability/value combinations. Kyle Busch also deserves to be in the mix of the conversation as well. Personally, Martin Truex and Joey Logano are among my favorite sharp options this week. A lot of people forget the importance of managing tire wear at Watkins Glen and that is where Martin Truex typically shines. Meanwhile, based on being included in the 2nd-tier betting group, Logano can be targeted in all formats as I have already explained above why he is high on my list this week.

I’m hoping that numerous H2H match-ups will be offered this week because I have a lot of guys that could be potential betting targets given the appropriate pairings. In fact, there are too many to discuss. One of the sharpest options includes the driver of the #14 in Chase Briscoe. This is the first time all season that I have listed Briscoe in the “targets” bucket so hopefully I don’t jinx him. However, the rookie has been best on the road courses this season in the midst of Stewart-Haas Racing’s underperforming season. Briscoe has finished 6th at both Circuit of the Americas and again at Road America which are his best finishes of the season. Briscoe has always been a very underrated road course talent and people fail to remember that his 1st Xfinity Series victory was produced at the ROVAL at Charlotte. After displaying a dominant run in Friday’s ARCA race before equipment issues, I have high expectations for Briscoe going into Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen especially when you consider the quality of drivers currently paired against him. As a result, Briscoe is one of my favorite targets in H2H formats.

Outside of Briscoe, I will throw out a couple of bottom-tier options. Daniel Suarez has performed well under the 750hp package this season and has been strong in every start at the Glen with finishes of 3rd, 4th, and 17th. I believe TrackHouse Racing is getting better as the season progresses and don’t rule out the importance of a two-week break for a small program to make improvements. Another bottom-tier driver that is on my radar includes Michael McDowell. Despite typically being overrated at the road course venues, McDowell has actually performed really well at Watkins Glen with 4 straight top 20 finishes. All of those finishes occurred when McDowell was driving inferior equipment and this will be a good opportunity for the reigning Daytona 500 winner to earn a quality finish.

Drivers to Fade

One of my top drivers for fade consideration this week includes Brad Keselowski in the #2 machine. Despite being a 2nd-tier type favorite, Keselowski’s stats have been really bad this season at the road course venues which has resulted in a measly 73.2 average rating. I mentioned a few weeks ago this team was not performing to par and that was before the announcement that Keselowski would be leaving Team Penske. Can anyone think of one good example, where a driver performed well in their final season with a team in the last decade in NASCAR? I’ll wait. As a result, Keselowski is among the top fade options this week.

If given the right value, I may also consider fading Kyle Larson this week. I’m just not convinced he deserves to be a top favorite this week and will take my chances at plus money with a guy like Martin Truex if given the option. Meanwhile, drivers like Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace, and Austin Dillon remain considerable fade options as well. Dillon and Wallace are among the worst road course talents in the series which is hidden by the fact they are in above-average equipment. For Kevin Harvick, “Happy” is a former winner (2006) at Watkins Glen. However in the 13 starts since that victory, Harvick has only produced one additional Top 5 finish. If you combine that fact with the 2021 struggles, this could be another prime opportunity to fade the #4 car.

Draftkings 2021 Go Bowling at the Glen Optimal Lineup

2021 Go Bowling at the Glen Betting Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +700 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +800 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1600 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Joey Logano -130 over William Byron (2 units)
Erik Jones -145 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Chase Briscoe -120 over Matt DiBenedetto (2 units)
Chase Briscoe +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)