2021 Go Bowling 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 14th, 2:30PM (EST) at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off a double header on Saturday at Richmond Raceway with the running of the Go Bowling 250. Both Xfinity and Cup Series teams will be in action on Saturday with the Federated Auto Parts 400 headlining in the evening hours. For Xfinity Series’ competitors, just two races remain before the start of the playoffs and we are fresh off a solid Xfinity win last week with Noah Gragson cashing at Darlington. This week, NASCAR’s former Most Popular Driver and Hall of Famer, Dale Earnhardt Jr will make his lone appearance of the season which should bring some extra excitement to the Go Bowling 250!

With NASCAR’s new schedule, the Xfinity Series has not competed on many short tracks this season. The former schedule included venues like Iowa and Gateway which gave bettors a bigger sample size on short-track performance. Aside from Bristol which races extremely different from Richmond, I would classify New Hampshire and Phoenix as the only races that will compare in driving style. Austin Cindric won the spring race at Phoenix over Ty Gibbs after leading 119 of 200 laps. More recently at Loudon, Christopher Bell put on a dominant performance by leading 151 of 200 laps to pull out a victory over Justin Allgaier. Now we turn our attention to Go Bowling 250 and attempt to identify the drivers that could potentially conquer Richmond on Saturday.

Following a sweep through both Richmond races in 2020, Justin Allgaier enters this week as the potential favorite especially on the heels of that 2nd place finish at Loudon which has some close similarities. Allgaier has posted a strong performance season with 2 victories and 10 Top 5 finishes through 24 starts. Richmond is a perfect match for Allgaier’s driving style and he is my outright favorite this week along with the rookie Ty Gibbs. While we don’t have a big sample size on Gibbs, he has competed everywhere this season. Outside of the two victories, Gibbs also posted a strong 2nd place finish back in the spring at Phoenix. While Gibbs does not have a lot of experience at Richmond, this track is closer to the typical layouts that the ARCA Series competes on and we all know about Gibbs dominance in ARCA.

Austin Cindric and Dale Earnhardt Jr deserve some outside respect among the top names as well. I have been critical of Earnhardt’s chances in prior years due to the lack of seat time. However, Earnhardt has posted top 5 finishes in each of his last 3 starts over the last 3 years in the Xfinity Series which includes a 4th place finish at Richmond in 2018. Though I would love to see Earnhardt pull out a victory, I think a top 5 finish is the more realistic ceiling. Meanwhile, Austin Cindric is a driver that has a real chance to steal the show. Cindric has been really good at Richmond despite not getting to victory lane. In 6 career starts, Cindric has posted 4 Top 5 finishes which includes two runner-up finishes. As a result, I believe Cindric is the guy that could spoil the show among the favorites.

H2H Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, I feel like Austin Cindric is being slightly disrespected in terms of futures (win) odds and H2H match-ups. Cindric deserves to be among the outright favorites but is getting plus value in some match-ups. Additionally, I would take Cindric with complete confidence against guys like Earnhardt Jr and Gragson which are within his current betting odds range. If we can get any of those match-ups with decent value, those are high probable opportunities barring misfortune.

Another great H2H option includes the #18 of Daniel Hemric. If it were not for Hemric’s luck and ability to screw every winning opportunity up, I would be even bigger on his chances for an upset this week. In reality, Hemric has been fantastic at Richmond with finishes of 3rd, 4th, 29th, and 3rd. In the one finish of 29th, Hemric also had one of the fastest cars in that event which was evident by an opening stage win before the team ran into trouble later in the race. Either way, Hemric is really good at Richmond which leaves us some opportunity in the form of match-ups. Outside of Gibbs, I would heavily favor Hemric in all match-ups against other JGR teammates.

Drivers to Fade

I am not exactly sure if either of these drivers will provide fade opportunities. However, both Josh Berry and John Hunter Nemechek should be avoided. Berry returns to the #31 for Jordan Anderson Racing which is still trying to get off the ground. Meanwhile, Nemechek has really boosted his stock in 2021 by dominating in the Truck Series with Kyle Busch Motorsports. With that being said, Nemechek will be driving the #26 for Sam Hunt Racing this week. Similar to Berry’s situation, this is an underfunded team that has a best finish of 13th throughout the entire season. As a result, do not get caught up with the name brands this week as both drivers will be worthy of fade consideration. One final option for fade potential includes the #16 of AJ Allmendinger. If you look at every comparable venue, Allmendinger struggles at these layouts. On the heels of a couple of wins in recent weeks, perhaps we can find some value fading the #16.

Draftkings Go Bowling 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 Go Bowling 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +400 (1 unit)
Austin Cindric +600 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1000 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Justin Haley -135 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Noah Gragson -130 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Harrison Burton +100 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Daniel Hemric +275 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)