2021 GEICO 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 25th, 2021. 2:00PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

For the first time since the Daytona 500, superspeedway racing will return this Sunday with the running of the GEICO 500 on the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway. In February, Michael McDowell stunned the world by winning a chaotic opener in the Daytona 500. McDowell’s surprise victory seemingly set the tone for the 2021 season which has produced 8 different winners through 9 races. If that trend continues, we could expect another first time winner on Sunday. The beauty of superspeedway racing is that it brings the ultimate parity to NASCAR’s top division and the opportunity for anyone to find victory lane just as we witnessed back in February. For bettors, the parity provides an exciting boom or bust betting opportunity with high reward potential.

Obviously, these superspeedway races are unpredictable by nature. Often, I point out the fact that the “Big One” or multi-car wrecks, which accompany pack racing, typically have innocent casualties. The fastest cars or best drivers can be wiped out in one corner by a single drivers mistake. Part of the success to this style of racing is simply surviving and drivers positioning themselves for a “chance” in the closing laps. Despite the unpredictable nature of this race, the Cup Series has produced far less surprise winners than most would expect. In the last 15 races, the only true surprise winner was Ricky Stenhouse’s victory in 2017 and even then Stenhouse had displayed solid superspeedway skills in races prior. For true shocking upsets, you would have to go back to David Ragan’s win in 2013 at 100-1 odds to find the last big underdog victory.

Despite the allure of potential huge upset winners, we most often see the better superspeedway drivers find their way to victory lane. In the last 14 races, the breakdown of winners is relatively unsurprising with Denny Hamlin (2), Brad Keselowski (3), Dale Earnhardt Jr, Joey Logano (3), Ricky Stenhouse, Aric Almirola, and Ryan Blaney (2). If you look at those names, those drivers have extremely strong superspeedway credentials meaning that Talladega has been somewhat tamed by NASCAR’s top talents in recent years. I simply point out these facts so bettors do not completely avoid the favorites and put excessive risks on too many long shots.

Talladega Loop Data

So how do we predict this unpredictable event? Well, technically we cannot predict outcomes to the degree of certainty we would typically need from handicapping these events. However, due to favorable odds that accompany superspeedway races we can see the higher ROI rewards by putting our bets in smart areas. For this week’s loop data, I would encourage everyone to focus on the average rating and average running positions more so than finishing positions. Ultimately, we want to find drivers that typically put themselves in the best position for victories at Talladega and then identify the best betting value from those options.

In this week’s loop data rankings, Joey Logano fills the top spot with a 105.5 average rating over the last 5 races. Logano has scored 3 wins in the last 11 races at Talladega which is better than anyone through that timeframe. Despite not winning in the last 5 races which provides these loop data statistics, Logano has still led the most laps (131) and been among the highest running drivers on average. Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney fills in the 2nd position with a 97.3 rating which is a product of 2 victories in the last 3 races at Talladega. Blaney is probably the most improved superspeedway threat in recent years and the majority of his success has come at Talladega.

Other notable mentions include Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, and Erik Jones who are all within the top 7 drivers in average ratings at Talladega over the last 5 races. Personally, I was surprised to see Jones’ name on this list. I know he is a former Daytona winner but I have rarely put him in the superspeedway dark horse category. Almirola perhaps deserves the most respect. Almirola captured a victory in 2018 and has the 2nd highest average running position (10.8) behind Denny Hamlin. I really like Almirola as a strong pivot option against the favorites this week. Almirola’s odds are not the greatest but you are also getting a top-tier threat and 2nd-tier betting odds.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Joey Logano	105.5	11	9.8	12.6	7.4	95	21	131	948
Ryan Blaney	97.3	12.2	12.4	14.2	9.6	41	19	118	952
Kurt Busch	94.2	9.6	13.2	17.8	11.8	4	18	124	861
Brad Keselowski	93.9	8.2	7.6	20.4	9.6	13	21	59	954
Aric Almirola	92.1	7.4	14.4	10.8	15	-87	16	40	817
Chase Elliott	87.7	7.6	9.6	20	12.6	45	28	107	903
Erik Jones	84.9	17.4	20.4	13.6	16.4	-56	23	18	934
Alex Bowman	83.6	6	13.6	18.6	14.4	39	11	20	876
William Byron	82.9	15.2	11	17.8	13.2	2	19	30	934
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	82.1	14.2	17.6	15.4	17.2	58	14	53	767
Cole Custer	81.7	23	13	26.5	16.5	12	6	0	299
Tyler Reddick	79.9	23	15.5	13.5	14	42	16	21	391
Kyle Busch	78.8	13.2	13.6	22.8	13.4	37	29	17	946
Denny Hamlin	78.2	15.2	23.8	9.6	19.4	10	22	44	852
Ryan Preece	77.4	29	21.5	11.5	19	76	22	3	767
Chris Buescher	77.3	23.2	17.2	16.6	16.8	46	12	20	952
Kyle Larson	75.3	18.7	13.7	24.7	18.3	20	9	1	486
Austin Dillon	73.2	14.2	11.8	17.6	17.4	18	20	1	902
Ryan Newman	72.5	18.4	21	12.6	22.4	63	37	4	960
Matt DiBenedetto	72.2	24	16	27.6	15.8	13	27	14	944
Kevin Harvick	70.7	9.4	17.8	22.6	17.2	-11	25	50	783
Daniel Suarez	70.3	23.2	13.2	24.4	18.6	16	24	0	847
Martin Truex Jr	66.1	10.6	21.8	23	21.2	-69	16	21	952
Bubba Wallace	62.6	24.6	19.2	24	22.6	22	22	12	771
Justin Haley	60.1	36.5	30	21.5	24.5	-51	11	0	380
Corey LaJoie	57.9	32.6	29.2	18.8	27.8	51	19	0	946
Michael McDowell	49.3	19.6	31.8	27.8	28.2	-79	26	1	623
Ross Chastain	46.3	34.7	30.7	20.7	30	-27	5	10	568
Quin Houff	45.8	32.5	30	20	29.5	-47	2	0	390
Christopher Bell	44.9	28.5	23.5	34	27	-6	2	4	191
Joey Gase	41.0	36.25	32	27.0	30	-20	9	0	695
Cody Ware	38.1	37.7	32.0	28.3	30.3	-55	3	1	569

Betting Targets

As I explained in the Ag-Pro 300 preview for the Xfinity Series, I don’t consider anyone a true betting “target” this week. I rarely will play H2H match-ups at the superspeedways because most match-ups are a result of circumstance rather than performance. Additionally, we are often forced into betting on the drivers with the most value (odds) at the superspeedway races rather than the simple talent. Based on current odds, I will say that Aric Almirola (+1600), William Byron (+2000), and Erik Jones (+5000) are among my favorite targets based on outright value. I have not mentioned Byron yet but I continue to believe he is one of the most underrated superspeedway talents in the field. Byron scored his 1st career victory at Daytona last year and it would not be surprising to see him strike at Talladega this week especially with the type of season the #24 team is producing.

I know there are several superspeedway talents that I have not mentioned yet. Brad Keselowski has 5 victories at Talladega which is the most among active drivers. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch are additional names that have won previously at Talladega. The problem is that all of those names, even Keselowski, have not performed well in recent races. In the last 6 races, Keselowski’s best finish is 13th. Obviously I don’t think you can ignore Keselowski’s talent especially given Team Penske’s dominance at Talladega in recent years, I just don’t like the betting value on many of those names mentioned above.

Prop Bets

Though I traditionally stay away from H2H bets at these races, I don’t necessarily shy away from taking chances on long shot prop bets. In honesty, the prop bets have historically produced more return value than the futures bets based on the history of common/top-tier drivers winning as described above. However, it is not uncommon to see some surprise names at the top of the finishing order. From a pure statistical perspective, Ryan Preece has the best average finish (11.5) at Talladega among active drivers despite just 4 starts. Preece is currently listed at 60-1 odds for the outright victory at nearly 10-1 odds for a top 5 finish. This is the type of value that cannot be avoided and while I don’t like to put excessive risk into the superspeedway races; I don’t discourage a few low-risk wagers on high yield prop bets where we find the favor in the analytical values.

In case you want a few additional extreme dark horses to consider in the area of prop bets, I would point to the likes of Justin Haley, Ryan Newman, and Harrison Burton as extreme flier options for prop consideration. Despite the equipment concern, Haley is an excellent superspeedway driver. Newman has finished inside the top 10 in 5 of the last 7 races at Talladega which includes two runner-up finishes. Meanwhile, Harrison Burton is a driver that nobody will likely mention this week as he makes his 1st career Cup Series start. Burton will be driving the #96 for Gaunt Brothers Racing and I mentioned him pretty heavily in our Xfinity Series preview for having an extremely strong average running position at the superspeedway venues. All of these drivers could produce significant upside for prop bets and may be worth consideration in this week’s betting line-ups.

Draftkings GEICO 500 Optimal Lineup

*Optimal lineups are not a product of true handicapping this week and should be considered high-risk due to superspeedway style racing. Primary strategy should focus on potential place-differential points to offset the volatility.

2021 GEICO 500 Betting Picks

*Final

Joey Logano +900 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +1600 (.75 units)
William Byron +2000 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +2500 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +3300 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Harrison Burton +1500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +750 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)