2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 18th, 2021. 3:00PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last week, Kurt Busch shook up the playoff picture with a relatively surprising win at Atlanta to become the 12th different driver to earn a victory this season. On Sunday, the Cup Series returns for their lone stop of the year at New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. With just 5 races remaining before the playoffs, each race is gaining the utmost importance for drivers trying to solidify their chances at a championship. We will discuss the drivers that desperately need a strong run on Sunday along with others that provide the best betting options for New Hampshire Motor Speedway with our 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 race picks!

Looking out on the horizon, this week’s race at Loudon will be the last of its kind until the Chase begins. New Hampshire Motor Speedway will be the final race of the season utilizing the 750HP rules package on a traditional oval. The 750HP package will be utilized at both Watkins Glen and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course but that is a completely different type of racing. If you consider those two road course events combined with the stops at Michigan and Daytona before the Chase begins, this week’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 may be the most traditional style race we witness over the next several weeks. Luckily, I believe we have enough historical data on the season to yield some solid performance expectations and lay the groundwork for this weekend’s predictions.

For bettors, New Hampshire Motor Speedway has traditionally provided a solid handicapping opportunity. Sometimes referred to as the Magic Mile, New Hampshire is a 1.058 mile oval with very flat banking. The straightaways barely have any elevation and the turns peak at just 7 degrees of banking. Drivers will put heavy emphasis on rolling the corner before attempting to accelerate off the corners. In many ways, the driving style characteristics that New Hampshire Motor Speedway yields are similar to the likes of Richmond and Martinsville. At each venue, long-run speed is extremely important and drivers will face the difficult challenge of accelerating off the corners while trying to avoid rear tire spin. It is very easy to burn the rear tires up at New Hampshire which means we can put extra emphasis on the drivers that excel at long-run tire management.

Loop Data for New Hampshire

For the 2nd straight week, I have compiled multiple loop data sets for handicapping purposes. The first table below highlights loop data metrics from the last 5 races in Loudon. As you will notice, Martin Truex Jr currently has the best average rating (117.1) over the last 5 races. Despite not having any victories in Loudon, Truex consistently runs upfront and has not finished worse than 6th in the last 5 races. Behind Truex, there is a very prestigious group of drivers that consists of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick with triple digit average ratings. Harvick leads all active drivers with 4 victories including 2 of the last 3 races at New Hampshire. Meanwhile Hamlin (3), Busch (3), and Keselowski (2) are all multiple winners in Loudon.

After last weekend’s breakout victory, it is worth noting that Kurt Busch also has 3 victories in Loudon and Ryan Newman also has the same number of victories despite being in the twilight years of his career. Aside from the notable mentions above, the biggest observations are the drivers that have struggled at New Hampshire. Kyle Larson has been hit or miss at Loudon with 3 runner-up finishes combined with a 3rd place result in 10 starts. In all other races, Larson failed to crack the top 10. Meanwhile, guys like William Byron and Alex Bowman have never cracked the top 10 in their young careers. I would also point evidence to the likes of Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch who have often struggled at New Hampshire in recent years. Despite the 3 victories, the elder Busch has averaged an 18th place finish over the last 10 races.

In the bottom table, I have combined loop data metrics from Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond, and Nashville this season to utilize as relative data. The Cup Series has utilized the 750HP rules package at additional venues this season like the road courses, Dover, and Darlington. However, I wanted to capture performance data from the 750HP package at the most similar venues in terms of the type of racing product that is necessary to succeed. I believe the tracks chosen in this table below provide that value. Notice that Denny Hamlin emerges as the top driver in this view with an impressive rating of 123.5. To everyone’s surprise, Hamlin is still seeking his first victory of the season and this Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 offers a good opportunity at one of Hamlin’s better tracks. In the reference to the loop data metrics at the selected venues above, Hamlin has posted a runner-up finish (Richmond) and a pair of 3rd place results (Phoenix and Martinsville) to earn the top rating.

Along with Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr also should receive a vote of confidence this week. After a strong run at Atlanta (3rd), Truex returns to the short-track venues where he has been flat out dangerous this season. Truex’s 3 victories have all come with the 750HP package and two of those victories are included in the sample below from the spring races at Phoenix and Martinsville. In this same data view, I would also point out a few dark horse indicators. Joey Logano ranks 2nd in the average rating category and has the 2nd best average running position (5.3) in the sample. Logano has been best under the 750HP package this year and that should not be forgotten as Sunday’s race approaches. Meanwhile, bettors should also take notice of upticks in performance from the likes of William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Aric Almirola in this sample. Byron has shown improved performance everywhere this season meanwhile Bell and Almirola are true outliers in this data view based on their 2021 performance averages.

*Data reflects last 5 races at New Hampshire

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	117.1	5.0	10.8	4.2	6.4	86	173	332	1504
Denny Hamlin	112.2	8.0	6.0	6.0	7.0	59	141	259	1504
Kyle Busch	109.0	3.6	10.2	12.2	10.4	49	226	436	1218
Brad Keselowski	105.7	6.8	9.0	11.2	7.6	8	92	196	1496
Kevin Harvick	105.0	10.6	8.6	9.6	9.4	32	104	59	1352
Kyle Larson	93.4	19.0	9.8	12.3	11.0	101	86	2	1166
Ryan Blaney	91.8	8.2	9.6	11.8	9.2	25	22	5	1504
Chase Elliott	90.4	10.0	14.2	13.0	12.6	50	22	32	1493
Joey Logano	87.3	17.6	9.4	13.8	12.6	38	26	1	1472
Kurt Busch	87.2	6.0	10.8	17.6	11.8	-40	66	94	1352
Aric Almirola	84.4	14.6	12.2	14.2	14.4	43	76	56	1501
William Byron	80.2	16.3	10.3	12.3	14.0	16	5	0	903
Erik Jones	77.7	8.4	21.4	17.6	16.8	11	46	4	1242
Ryan Newman	74.1	21.6	14.6	14.8	16.2	38	5	0	1502
Alex Bowman	70.1	17.7	17.3	13.3	17.3	3	0	0	903
Daniel Suarez	68.8	19.6	17.8	16.2	18.8	-22	10	0	1500
Matt DiBenedetto	64.2	19.2	23.8	20.0	21.4	-10	6	0	1494
Austin Dillon	63.2	20.8	19.8	20.0	21.0	21	19	3	1470
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	63.1	21.2	23.6	21.8	20.8	-24	5	11	1333
Ryan Preece	61.4	29.0	17.5	18.5	19.0	-8	0	0	601
Chris Buescher	55.8	23.4	23.2	21.2	22.0	-37	0	0	1500
Bubba Wallace	49.8	23.0	24.7	23.0	24.0	-54	0	0	899
Michael McDowell	49.7	24.4	25.4	22.2	25.0	-70	1	0	1498
Corey LaJoie	41.6	31.8	27.4	28.6	28.8	-42	1	0	1454
Ross Chastain	39.7	32.0	28.5	25.0	28.5	22	1	0	597
Quin Houff	29.7	33.0	35.0	31.5	34.0	-4	2	0	581

*Data reflects results from this season’s races at Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond, and Nashville

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Denny Hamlin	123.5	5.0	3.5	7.5	4.5	-25	208	516	1511
Joey Logano	111.9	4.5	8.3	5.3	5.3	-35	73	198	1512
Martin Truex Jr	109.9	12.0	8.3	7.5	8.3	32	170	191	1511
Kyle Larson	105.0	8.0	14.3	7.8	10.3	60	209	265	1510
William Byron	100.7	5.3	9.5	5.5	9.3	50	35	9	1512
Chase Elliott	97.1	5.0	9.8	8.0	9.5	42	33	13	1512
Christopher Bell	96.7	15.0	15.8	7.3	10.5	54	35	9	1512
Kevin Harvick	96.1	12.0	8.0	11.0	9.0	-15	30	0	1509
Kyle Busch	91.6	7.8	12.8	13.5	12.0	-6	37	11	1511
Aric Almirola	87.0	21.5	11.3	10.3	13.3	25	15	1	1511
Alex Bowman	86.4	18.3	10.0	15.8	13.5	66	46	10	1396
Ryan Blaney	85.8	7.3	11.8	17.5	14.5	12	49	192	1265
Brad Keselowski	85.8	11.5	8.0	18.8	12.0	4	30	44	1396
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	83.5	11.3	14.3	12.5	13.8	-12	44	1	1511
Kurt Busch	80.4	20.0	13.8	14.3	14.3	43	33	3	1510
Austin Dillon	76.4	17.5	16.3	13.3	15.8	28	16	1	1512
Matt DiBenedetto	75.4	17.3	15.8	15.0	15.3	2	2	0	1510
Ross Chastain	74.6	21.5	19.0	13.3	17.5	26	20	4	1511
Tyler Reddick	68.8	18.8	14.3	19.0	17.5	-2	10	0	1508
Daniel Suarez	65.8	21.8	16.8	19.0	20.5	11	36	0	1397
Bubba Wallace	64.8	21.5	24.5	19.8	19.8	-24	11	27	1508
Cole Custer	60.1	19.5	22.0	25.8	22.3	-14	19	0	1458
Chase Briscoe	58.8	23.0	20.5	25.8	21.0	-39	0	5	1428
Chris Buescher	58.2	15.3	25.0	23.3	24.0	-50	4	0	1286
Erik Jones	58.0	17.3	18.8	22.3	19.8	-10	0	0	1413
Ryan Newman	57.5	18.8	22.3	22.8	22.5	-67	0	0	1505
Ryan Preece	52.3	19.3	26.8	31.0	26.0	-42	39	0	1286
Corey LaJoie	51.4	31.8	18.0	25.3	24.8	19	0	12	1383
Michael McDowell	49.6	19.0	27.0	24.5	24.5	-31	2	0	1395
Anthony Alfredo	41.7	27.5	30.8	28.0	29.3	-38	7	0	1274
B.J. McLeod	38.5	33.0	32.5	30.0	31.0	-18	2	0	1475
Justin Haley	36.1	30.0	31.8	33.3	32.0	10	0	0	775
Garrett Smithley	34.4	35.7	32.0	31.7	31.7	-8	0	0	987
James Davison	32.2	34.3	33.7	29.3	33.7	-2	1	0	1187
Josh Bilicki	32.2	33.5	33.8	30.5	33.5	-11	0	0	1433
Cody Ware	31.6	32.0	36.3	33.3	34.7	-11	3	0	976
Quin Houff	31.1	33.8	34.8	32.3	34.3	-9	0	0	1188

Betting Targets

For the 2nd straight week, bettors will go into this weekend’s races “blind.” I use the word “blind” loosely because we do have the data metrics described above but we will be without pre-race practices again this week. Anytime drivers and teams unload a car without any form of practice there is an elevated amount of risk. If you just go back to last week’s race, Kyle Larson nearly led every lap in the spring race at Atlanta but struggled all afternoon with the front balance on the #5. As a result, Larson was never a factor for the victory like everyone expected. When teams do not have the opportunity to evaluate setups prior to races, this is the type of risk we must keep in mind especially at a venue like New Hampshire where this will be the only race of the season.

With that being said, I will put Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex at the top of my list this week. I know Kyle Larson is having a ridiculously strong season but he has also had a very forgettable two weeks following his performances at Road America and Atlanta. I just can’t justify the current overwhelming favorite odds listed on Larson especially at a track where it is easy for an aggressive driver to burn his tires up early in a run. As a result, Hamlin and Truex top my list for the best outright win options on Sunday. I personally believe Truex is in the best position to score his first win in Loudon but Hamlin remains long overdue for a victory following 11 top 5 finishes through the opening 21 races.

Without any doubt, my favorite H2H target for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is Christopher Bell. If you have followed my previews for a while, you will notice it is rare for me to call out a single driver in my H2H targets as I usually put them into groups. I think Christopher Bell deserves some standout respect this week. Bell has been improving with each passing week and is on the heels of a runner-up finish at Road America combined with a hard fought 8th place result at Atlanta. If you have followed Bell’s career, he has always been a better driver at the short tracks which is the same reason he has shown so much success at the road courses. Bell is a very underrated short-track driver at this point in his Cup Series career and posted 4 top 10 finishes at the 4 venues I extracted above as relative tracks (Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond, and Nashville). After a forgettable 28th place finish in his lone start at Loudon as a rookie last year, Bell is in a smash spot to return value where he went 2 for 2 with victories at New Hampshire in Xfinity Series competition.

For additional betting targets, I am cautiously optimistic for the likes of Joey Logano and Kyle Busch. Logano provides some 2nd-tier dark horse potential while Busch is deservingly in the top group of favorites. I would probably have Busch ranked higher this week due to his recent momentum. However, Busch’s recent success has all stemmed from performance with the 550HP package and he has not shown the same elite performance strength with the 750HP package. If you combine that fact with Busch’s odds, I just cannot back him this week (from a value perspective) but it would not be surprising to see the #18 in victory lane either. Lastly, let me throw out some cellar dweller names in the likes of Ryan Newman and Aric Almirola as potential bottom-tier match-up options. Despite the twilight days of his career, Newman has been really good at Loudon even in recent years with 2 top 10 finishes in the last 3 starts. The same can also be said for Aric Almirola and though I have steered clear of Stewart-Haas Racing cars since the start of the season; they have been better with the 750HP package.

Drivers to Fade

Based purely on betting odds, I will label Brad Keselowski as a fade option this week. Keselowski is the defending winner of the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 and is currently listed in the same betting group as the likes of Hamlin and Elliott. While Keselowski has a strong history in Loudon, I cannot look past the current performance. Since the 4th place finish at Phoenix in the spring which was the 5th race of the season, Keselowski has posted just 3 top 10 finishes which includes the win at Talladega and a pair of 3rd place finishes at Kansas and Pocono. None of those results have come with the 750HP rules package and I would not even point to the rules package as the issue; the #2 team is underperforming across the board and I cannot find any rationale with their current betting odds.

Based on prior performance with enough races to justify a trendline, I think we can also consider legitimate fade opportunities against drivers like Alex Bowman and Chris Buescher. I mentioned earlier that Bowman has never cracked the top 10 at Loudon in 9 career starts. In fact, Bowman has just 4 finishes in the top 20 during those 9 career starts. Perhaps based on this season’s success, Bowman is still within a betting range that likely can be considered overvalued. For Chris Buescher, I just noticed that he has always produced poor results at New Hampshire and it is not the product of DNF’s or other types of issues. In 7 career starts, Buescher has only posted an above 60 average driver rating once at New Hampshire which came in 2019 with a career-best finish of 15th. Buescher has failed to crack the top 20 in all other starts at New Hampshire.

Draftkings 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Optimal Lineup

2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Betting Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +600 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +700 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1200 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Denny Hamlin -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -110 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Joey Logano +115 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Christopher Bell +350 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)