2021 Food City Bristol Dirt Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 28th, 2021. 3:30PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The anticipation has been building for months and on Sunday the wait is over! NASCAR’s Cup Series will make their long awaited return to dirt for the first time in over 50 years. Bristol Motor Speedway known as the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile” has been transformed, by virtue of 23,000 cubic yards of dirt, into a dusty colosseum that will watch NASCAR’s top series return to its roots. Despite the fact NASCAR was founded on dirt, the last race on a dirt surface dates back to 1970 at the North Carolina Fairgrounds in Raleigh. Therefore, this Sunday’s Food City Bristol Dirt Race promises to be the most unique Cup Series race of our generation.

Outside of the pure excitement from a racing fan and spectator standpoint, Sunday’s race is not the most ideal betting event simply because we don’t truly know what to expect. We know there are drivers that have some extensive dirt backgrounds, other drivers with some dirt experience, and others with virtually no dirt experience. However, dirt experience is not always a requisite for success which we saw in the beginning years of the Truck Series’ events at Eldora Speedway. Simply put, there are a lot of unknowns around the drivers, the equipment, and even the tires which experienced significant wear in practices on Friday.

Betting Strategy

In the Camping World Truck Series preview for Saturday, I made the comparison to betting this dirt race with a superspeedway mentality. I standby that statement because the amount of unknowns and value you can find potentially fading the favorites. While there is better homerun value in the Truck Series in terms of true long shots, it would not be unfathomable to see a surprise victory on Sunday. After all, the Cup Series has produced 6 winners in 6 races so why would that trend not continue? The only downside to that mentality is that it appears the favorites this week have a stronger grasp of their frontrunner expectations whereas the Truck Series appears to be a true wildcard. As a result, I think the odds are pretty realistic for Sunday’s race which means we simply need to extract the sharp value with our picks

Friday’s Practices

In practices on Friday, we saw several of the drivers with extensive dirt backgrounds at the top of the speed charts. Kyle Larson had one of the most successful dirt racing seasons in history in 2020 after his suspension from NASCAR and is arguably the best dirt track talent in the world. Larson dominated the speed charts in race trim to justify his near 2-1 odds for Sunday’s race. Despite only showing 15th on single lap speed in final practice, Larson blasted the field on 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. The only driver that flirted with some of those long run times was the #8 of Tyler Reddick. I’m personally not familiar with Reddick’s background as it pertains to dirt but in reality it should be no surprise to see Reddick thrive at a track with no-grip.

It would be impossible to discuss how every driver looked in practice but I will try to touch on some high level observations. For starters, Christopher Bell, Ricky Stenhouse, Chase Briscoe, and Austin Dillon were a few of the drivers with increased stock this week due to their dirt backgrounds. Judging from practices alone, I don’t think any of those drivers lived up to the hype. Chase Briscoe looked the best out of that group but I think his stock has been overly inflated. A few of the drivers that I thought looked pretty strong included Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott. Perhaps that only proves that the top raw talents should shine on Sunday. I don’t think Hamlin nor Elliott have been given considerable attention this week because too much focus is going to “dirt experience” this week. However, there is simply too much value being given for some of the top drivers like Busch and Hamlin this week who were listed in the 20-1 odds range and higher.

Betting Targets

Unfortunately, Mother Nature did not cooperate with NASCAR’s plans to run qualifying heat races on Saturday. I purposely waited to discuss betting targets after the heat races because that would have provided bettors the best race trim observations. With no heat races, we will have to move forward based on practice speeds and outright expectations. For betting, I don’t see any value in betting Kyle Larson at such low odds. I need value to secure drivers into my lineup this week. Therefore, the best value among the favorites resides around Kyle Busch and Tyler Reddick at near 16-1 odds. Both drivers have been fast this weekend and have enough value for the inherited risk to take some chances at win/futures style wagers.

Ultimately, the best strategy for Sunday’s Food City Bristol Dirt Race will be sharp H2H plays that extract sharp value based on expectations. I think oddsmakers have overvalued dirt experience this week and we can perhaps use that to our advantage. As stated before Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott have shown more speed than most predicted this week which should be considered for H2H opportunities. However, the legitimate sharp plays surround the likes of Ryan Newman, Corey LaJoie, and William Byron. I’m not sure if LaJoie will be listed in match-ups but I also want to call him out for fantasy purposes from the 30th starting position. LaJoie showed solid speed on Friday and if things go their way; I could see the #7 team surprising people with a top 15 type performance.

For both Ryan Newman and William Byron, I just feel like they are not being given the respect they deserve. Byron does not have any dirt experience to my knowledge. However, he is having a tremendous season and showed quality speed again in practices on Friday. For consolation purposes, he also won the Iracing event at Bristol on Wednesday night. Obviously I am not making betting recommendations based on sim racing but I think Byron is strongly undervalued this week based on several different angles. Likewise, Newman has dirt experience and is a notorious wheelman which are the premier ingredients that you would like to have for betting targets this week. Newman was very fast on the long run and I think that will shine on Sunday!

Drivers to Fade

I understand Chase Briscoe has some dirt pedigree and is a former Truck Series winner at Eldora. However, I completely don’t understand why he is among the top 4-5 favorites this week. Briscoe has struggled with the transition to the Cup Series and Stewart-Haas Racing is vastly underperforming at the start of 2021. This combination does not bode well for a driver that is being completely overvalued for mere dirt merits and I will be looking to fade Briscoe for these reasons. Lastly, I believe Stewart Friesen belongs in that same category. Granted, I really like Friesen’s chances in the Pinty’s Bristol Truck Race but that is because the #52 is among the top teams in the garage. It is the exact opposite scenario for Friesen in the #77 car with Spire Motorsports. More importantly, Friesen has very limited Cup Series experience and these cars drive vastly different than the trucks and other dirt machines that Friesent is accustomed towards. I simply cannot justify the odds Friesen has received this week and oddsmakers have finally started dropping his value. Still, he has some fade value in a range of odds that includes Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and others.

Draftkings Food City Bristol Dirt Race Optimal Lineup

2021 Food City Bristol Dirt Race Betting Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +1000 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +1400 (.75 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2000 (.5 unit)
William Byron +2500 (.5 unit)
Ryan Newman +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -125 over Stewart Friesen (4 units)
Austin Dillon -115 over Stewart Friesen (2 units)
Chase Elliott -115 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -145 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)