2021 Food City 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday September 17th, 7:30PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go racing under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway this Friday for the running of the Food City 300. While Truck Series and Cup Series teams will feature elimination races this weekend at Bristol, the Xfinity Series will be putting the final stamp on their regular season. With a slightly different format, the Xfinity Series has just two playoff rounds before the season finale at Phoenix. Therefore, Friday’s Food City 300 will be the final race in the regular season before the playoff battle continues next week at Las Vegas.

As I mentioned in the UNOH 200 preview, this will be the first Xfinity Series’ event of the season on Bristol’s half-mile concrete surface as the spring date was overtaken by the dirt spectacle. While we would obviously prefer additional comparable data this week, we will have to make our best assumptions from an expectations standpoint. What I will point out to everyone is that the top drivers always find their way to the front at Bristol in these Xfinity Series’ races. If you look back through the history at Bristol, current Cup Series drivers have won 19 of the last 21 races at Thunder Valley. The only two exceptions to that rule include Elliott Sadler’s 2012 victory and Noah Gragson’s victory in the spring race last season.

For clarity, not all of those drivers in the previous stat were Cup Series drivers at the time of victory but are currently competing in the Cup Series which I believe speaks to the talent level normally needed to find victory lane. As a result, I think we should keep those items in mind when constructing betting lineups this week. Our betting focus should be geared around the best talents that have shown high potential at short-track venues. On the heels of two straight wins, Noah Gragson will likely be one of the overall favorites again this week when you combine his victory at Bristol in the spring of 2020. Surprisingly, Gragson is listed at 13.5-1 odds despite those circumstances and only the 8th-9th favorite on the board.

Personally, I have no idea why we are getting such a bargain price on Gragson. He is a streaky driver and has all the momentum going into a venue where he has a ton of confidence. Currently, Justin Allgaier is listed as the overall favorite at just 3.5 to 1 odds. Allgaier has traditionally performed extremely well at Bristol and has a 2010 victory on his resume. With that being said, I’m not sure that I can justify Allgaier being a 3.5 to 1 favorite when you consider how many strong finishes compared to actual wins (1). Instead, I believe bettors should focus on value this week because they are some really solid drivers that are getting good value in their betting odds. Bristol can be a volatile race due to short-track chaos and the ole game of track position. Therefore, we don’t want to be overextended with our selections.

H2H Betting Targets

As mentioned before, I think you have to include Gragson at his current odds simply based on betting value. Personally, I was not “targeting” Gragson this week but I will not ignore such extreme value. For true betting targets, I have really high expectations for Harrison Burton as he has been really impressive in all of his Bristol appearances. In 3 career starts, Burton finished 10th (2019) and posted a pair of 4th place finishes in both races last year. Burton is receiving pretty decent odds for the outright victory and I believe he is a guy that can be targeted with confidence in all formats.

Obviously guys like Allgaier, Ty Gibbs, and Austin Cindric are going to be in the hunt. Personally, I think Cindric is the better option of the group with slightly better odds. With that being said, it would not surprise me one bit to see Gibbs excel at this type of short-track where he can be really aggressive. Still, I am focused on those bets that provide potential. Therefore, I think even a Daniel Hemric at 12-1 odds is a decent option granted Hemric still remains winless in his career. However, Hemric has posted strong results in nearly all of his Bristol appearances in the Xfinity Series and the ROI potential must be taken into account.

For deepers H2H and fantasy options, Brandon Jones, Ryan Sieg, and Brett Moffitt are among the drivers that are staying close on my radar. Jones is often the forgotten option from the JGR brigade but has really solid results throughout his career at Bristol. The same can be said for Ryan Sieg who has posted an average running position of 10th or better in 2 of the last 3 starts. Granted, Sieg and the #39 team have struggled a bit in 2021. Personally, I believe most of those struggles are horsepower/aerodynamic type issues on the intermediate layouts. For Bristol, this should be an excellent opportunity for the #39 team to capture a quality performance. Lastly, Brett Moffitt is one of my favorite dark horse H2H and prop bet options. Moffitt has been great at Bristol in some of the lower series events. More importantly the #02 team with Our Motorsports is finally getting the speed to display some of Moffitt’s potential in a potential breakout spot going into Friday’s Food City 300.

Drivers to Fade

There are not many drivers that I am just looking to flat out fade in the Food City 300. I actually see more drivers that are undervalued than on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. From a statistical stance, I believe Justin Haley and Sam Mayer are your most obvious drivers that are overvalued. I know Mayer won the Truck Series race last year at Bristol and will likely draw some attention. However, the youngster has not performed very well in his part-time role with JR Motorsports. For Justin Haley, I was slightly surprised to see Haley with mediocre Bristol stats. I think Haley is a strong talent but he has rarely posted many worthwhile finishes. Due to the fact he is the 5th-6th favorite on the board, this could provide a potential fade opportunity.

Draftkings Food City 300 Optimal Lineup

2021 Food City 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Ty Gibbs +450 (1 unit)
Harrison Burton +900 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +1350 (.75 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Noah Gragson -105 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Brett Moffitt -110 over Ty Dillon (2 units)
Harrison Burton -130 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)