2021 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 21st, 2021. 3:15PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series’ campaign has provided unmatched parity through the opening weeks of the season. Following Martin Truex’s win at Phoenix last week, the Cup Series has produced 5 different winners through the first 5 races. Perhaps the most shocking aspect to that storyline is that the top 5 winners from 2020 have been completely shutout. Last year, NASCAR’s top drivers compiled 28 victories between the likes of Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano. Wildly enough, NASCAR’s top division has performed a complete turnaround from the 2020 season which featured betting favorites winning on a near weekly basis and has brought the underdogs back into the spotlight.

When you compare the 5 winners through the first 5 races combined with the numerous heavy talents that are bound to visit victory lane at some point this season, I would not be surprised if the Cup Series sets a record this year for the amount of different winners in a single season. Currently, the record stands at 19 different winners which occurred in both 2001 and 2011. On Sunday, there is a strong likelihood that we could see a 6th different winner in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are 5 drivers in the field on Sunday that have tasted victory lane at Atlanta Motor Speedway that will be seeking their first win of 2021. While we know nothing is certain in today’s age of racing, let’s take a look at the best betting options for the 2021 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500!

Atlanta by the numbers

Atlanta Motor Speedway is among the most difficult 1.5 mile venues for drivers in the Cup Series. The surface is abrasive and yields minimal grip. Most importantly, tire wear is the biggest factor with lap times falling off in the neighborhood of 2-3 seconds. In many ways, the tire wear factor is similar to what we saw at Homestead a few weeks ago. However, Atlanta does not have the progressive banking nor the multiple grooves of racing compared to Homestead. To be successful, drivers and teams will need to have their car working on the bottom of the racetrack and provide a setup that yields long-run speed.

Like Homestead, Chicagoland, and Darlington, Atlanta favors the input behind the steering wheel. If you look down the record books at Atlanta, you will notice the vast majority of winners are former Cup Series Champions. Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch are tied with 3 victories for the most among active drivers. Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski both have a pair of victories. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin is the only other driver in the field to have won at Atlanta via his victory in 2012. In recent years, Harvick and Keselowski have been the drivers to beat with two wins each over the past 4 races at Atlanta. Harvick pulls in the #1 ranking in our loop data this week with an extremely impressive 134.2 rating over the last 5 starts at Atlanta. Martin Truex, Brad Keselowski, and Kurt Busch are the only other drivers with a plus 100 average rating during that time frame.

On the downside of our loop data statistics, I believe Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman are worth mentioning as drivers performing below their standards. Hamlin has a relatively poor 86.9 rating and a career average finishing position of 17.3 through 21 career starts. With that being said, Hamlin has still shown some of the best speed in the garage this season so any ideas of fading the #11 should be thrown out the window. I’m just not sure Atlanta is a track where we should target Hamlin in our betting lineups. For Bowman, it is a similar storyline with a lower sample size. Through 5 career starts at Atlanta, Bowman’s best finish is a measly 12th place result in 2020. In his 3 career starts at Atlanta with Hendrick Motorsports, Bowman has produced a mere 75.4 rating.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Start	Mid Race	Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Top 15 Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	134.2	7.4	2.2	4.2	2.8	35	255	1615	800	1630
Martin Truex Jr	116.1	14.6	5.4	5.0	5.0	73	140	1615	104	1630
Brad Keselowski	110.4	10.4	6.6	4.4	7	18	122	1526	97	1630
Kurt Busch	104.3	8.2	8.0	5.6	7.8	30	44	1560	116	1630
Kyle Busch	97.6	10.6	9.2	6.8	9.4	35	89	1253	18	1630
Joey Logano	93.8	15.6	11.4	11.4	10.4	41	97	1317	33	1629
Kyle Larson	93.4	10.8	10.3	12.3	11.5	6	70	905	149	1302
Chase Elliott	93.1	17.0	9.4	10.0	9.4	12	50	1399	26	1629
Denny Hamlin	86.9	9.6	9.4	14.8	11.4	-19	41	1281	26	1485
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	84.5	7.8	16.0	14.0	12.6	-4	25	1262	1	1627
Ryan Blaney	83.6	19.2	13.6	16.2	13.2	7	63	1149	43	1626
Ryan Newman	82.8	7.6	14.6	21.6	14.8	-64	56	967	20	1608
Erik Jones	79.5	15.5	10.5	15.0	14.3	10	20	810	0	1297
Alex Bowman	75.4	14.0	14.0	15.7	15.7	-5	8	412	0	971
Austin Dillon	71.6	15.6	14.4	17.8	15.8	-12	7	842	0	1621
Aric Almirola	70.8	14.2	17.6	16.0	17.8	23	33	645	36	1623
Daniel Suarez	64.8	16.8	19.8	19.3	19.8	-17	9	620	0	1288
Ryan Preece	55.1	27.0	21.5	30.5	22.5	0	6	59	0	594
Chris Buescher	54.7	25.2	25.2	21.6	24.2	-9	7	154	0	1619
William Byron	52.2	20.0	25.3	22.7	25.7	-29	4	43	0	961
Bubba Wallace	50.0	23.7	27.0	26.7	24.7	-2	1	42	0	965
Matt DiBenedetto	48.9	25.6	25.4	27.8	25.6	-30	4	211	0	1612
Michael McDowell	43.9	26.6	28.8	29.4	28.6	-30	9	18	0	1510
Corey LaJoie	39.4	27.0	31.7	30.0	30.7	-27	10	6	0	955
Ross Chastain	32.8	33.0	33.5	30.5	32.5	3	2	0	0	632
Garrett Smithley	28.8	34.5	35.5	35.5	35	7	0	0	0	566
B.J. McLeod	27.0	38.0	37.0	36.0	36.5	5	2	0	0	316
Cody Ware	25.3	37.5	37.5	36	36.5	4	0	0	0	377

The Favorites

Despite the parity this season, oddsmakers are still not relinquishing any free value for Sunday’s race. In fact, 8 different drivers have been listed at less than 10-1 odds at some point this week. Fortunately, we just started witnessing a few positive line movements in the last 24 hours among the top guys and I am hoping that movement continues into Sunday. In breaking down the favorites, I can understand why Kevin Harvick is listed as the overall favorite. Harvick has been phenomenal at Atlanta and that 134.2 average rating is the highest we have seen this season in our loop data stats. However, I am concerned about the performance of the Stewart-Haas Racing cars which was my reason for avoiding Harvick last week at Phoenix where he has won 9 times throughout his career. Like I expected, Harvick was solid but he was never a true factor in contending for the victory and I’m afraid we may see that scenario continue until the SHR cars show more speed.

For the rest of the field, Kyle Larson is currently listed as the 2nd overall favorite stemming from his recent win at Las Vegas. Personally, I can’t justify Larson at 6-1 odds at Atlanta based on his history and overall win percentage. I mentioned Denny Hamlin’s struggles at Atlanta above though the #11 team continues to show exceptional speed each week so I don’t think anyone can rule out the FedEx Toyota. Joey Logano has looked fairly strong through the first 5 races despite average results at Homestead and Las Vegas which should be given some credibility as the only 1.5 mile races this season. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott has not shown much of anything on the heels of his 2020 championship.

As a result, the main drivers that I like among the favorites this week includes Martin Truex and Brad Keselowski. I mentioned Keselowski’s success at Atlanta above and I honestly think the #2 team have produced the best speed in the garage over the last several weeks. With that momentum, Keselowski becomes a dangerously sharp option this week based on how he gets around Atlanta. Lastly, who could deny Martin Truex’s possibility for going back to back on Sunday? I thought Truex’s victory at Phoenix was a mild surprise because that is not the type of track where he has historically performed exceptionally well. In true “Truex” fashion, the #19 car was unbeatable on the long-runs just as we saw a few weeks ago at Homestead with a 3rd place result. Despite never winning at Atlanta, Truex has been so close over the last few races with finishes of 5th, 2nd, and 3rd. Simply put, the team and the driver are putting fast products on the track which is showing tremendous long-run speed which is a winning combination for Atlanta.

Betting Targets

As we have seen in recent weeks, there is not a lot of value towards win (futures) bets. Despite failing to hit a winner, we have managed to scrape profits in each of the last two Cup Series races thanks to H2H bets and that remains the primary focus again going into Sunday. For H2H bets, Kurt Busch and William Byron are my favorite two options on Sunday. Byron has been performing very well in 2021 with new crew chief Rudy Fugle and basically dominated the race at Homestead which is similar in the realm of tire wear. Either way you slice it, Byron is performing far better than his prior averages or history would suggest.

For Kurt Busch, he has posted tremendous results at Atlanta throughout his career. Busch is a 3-time Atlanta winner and has a 6.9 average finishing position over the last 10 races which is 2nd to Kevin Harvick among active drivers. Busch and Byron are among the drivers listed in the intermediate betting range with high ceilings. Lastly, I would also throw a consideration towards Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse has been performing well in 2021 with finishes of 13th, 11th, and 12th over the last 3 races despite the inferior equipment. Stenhouse has notoriously performed well at Atlanta which means a top 10 is not out of the question this week. Stenhouse could provide some sharp H2H or prop value in the right situations.

Drivers to Fade

When I look over the drivers to consider for fade consideration, I don’t have many drivers that I absolutely “hate” this week. Last Sunday, I think we did a great job of fading Austin Dillon and Alex Bowman based on horrible Phoenix trends that did not fit their driving styles. I don’t like to force targets or fade opportunities so I just want to be clear; the following drivers I would label as “overvalued” rather than outright fades regardless of pairings. With that being said, I do believe Kevin Harvick is overvalued as the outright favorite. I just have not seen the speed we are accustomed to from the #4 team and believe that provides a possible fade scenario. Likewise, I believe Chase Elliott belongs in that same bucket. I mentioned a stat a few weeks ago that deserves repeating. Elliott has failed to finish in the top 10 in 8 of the last 9 races on 1.5 mile layouts. I believe bettors could argue that Elliott has been the least impressive driver from Hendrick Motorsports since the Cup Series left Daytona. Until we see something change, Elliott does not deserve to be among the top betting favorites.

Draftkings Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Optimal Lineup

2021 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +700 (1 unit)
Brand Keselowski +750 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +1200 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

*All H2H match-ups and props courtesy of Bovada

Kurt Busch -115 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Brad Keselowski -110 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -110 over Chase Elliott (3 units)
Number of lead lap finishers over 16.5 -115 (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +335 wins Group C (Cindric, Newman, Wallace, and Jones)(1 unit)
Kurt Busch +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)