2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 11th, 2021. 7:30PM (EST) at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The opening round of the playoffs did not disappoint last week at Darlington Raceway. While Denny Hamlin emerged victorious, several drivers did not escape the wrath from The Lady in Black. Drivers like Kyle Busch, Chase, Elliott, William Byron, and Alex Bowman will all need strong rebounding efforts this week to improve their chances to advance to the Round of 12. The 2nd race of the Chase will take place on Saturday when the Cup Series reconvenes at Richmond Raceway for the running of the Federated Auto Parts 400!

The Cup Series will host consecutive Saturday night races this week at Richmond and again next week at Bristol. Both Saturday night short track events will bring inevitable chaos to the playoff picture and I am personally excited to witness both events. Back in the spring, Alex Bowman delivered his 1st surprising victory of the season. Bowman took advantage of a late race restart to steal the victory away from Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex who combined to lead 314 of 400 laps. Truex enters this weekend’s race as the overall favorite ahead of Hamlin which I believe is the correct order of favorites. Truex swept both Richmond races in 2019 and nearly added another victory in the spring. Not to mention, all of Truex’s victories (3) this season have come on the shorter tracks with the 750hp rules package. As a result, Truex gets the rightful nod as the overall favorite this week.

Loop Data for Richmond

I compiled two different loop data sets this week to clearly show historical and in-season narratives. The first data set shows the last 5 races at Richmond where Martin Truex has amassed a huge lead with an impressive 128 average rating. Truex leads all major statistics including average running position, laps led, and fastest laps. Behind Truex, there is a logjam of drivers with triple digit ratings that include Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin. Busch leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Richmond while Harvick and Hamlin are tied for 2nd with 3 wins each.

In the first data set, I would also mention high ratings from Austin Dillon and Christopher Bell which greatly exceed their expectations. Bell has just two Richmond starts under his belt in the Cup Series but brought home a 4th place finish back in the spring. Meanwhile, Dillon has posted 4 top 10 finishes in the last 5 races at Richmond which includes a pair of 6th place results. Neither driver has a high-profile Richmond resume and perhaps that could lead to betting opportunities in the form of H2H match-ups.

In the bottom graph, I have compiled loop data metrics from earlier races this season at Phoenix, Richmond, and Loudon. While all 3 tracks are different, they share similarities in driving style and I thought it would be a good 3-race sample. In that data set, we see many of the same characters with the triple digit ratings with the addition of Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell who I just called out above. Denny Hamlin holds the slight edge with an overall rating of 118.7 and perhaps the most notable trend from the top group is that it consists of all 3 Team Penske drivers who have been really strong with the 750hp rules package.

*Data reflects last 5 races at Richmond Raceway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	128.0	6.2	2.4	2.4	4.0	25	210	565	2000
Brad Keselowski	113.4	9.0	3.4	7.2	5.2	26	142	404	2000
Kevin Harvick	111.7	2.8	8.6	9.0	5.4	-24	155	111	1997
Kyle Busch	110.2	7.0	8.8	5.0	7.0	52	188	400	2000
Joey Logano	106.1	10.0	7.6	6.8	7.6	-1	109	146	1999
Denny Hamlin	102.6	9.4	9.6	7.6	8.8	16	161	252	1998
Austin Dillon	92.2	12.6	10.4	9.8	11.4	51	90	56	1996
Chase Elliott	91.6	13.6	10.4	10.0	10.4	-1	36	36	1999
Christopher Bell	91.1	17.0	14.5	9.5	13.0	34	20	0	799
Aric Almirola	86.6	15.2	11.0	11.8	12.0	12	19	1	1997
Alex Bowman	85.9	14.6	13.0	12.6	12.8	3	42	11	1995
Kurt Busch	84.3	8.2	12.4	14.8	11.2	-36	48	15	1995
Kyle Larson	77.0	9.5	20.3	17.3	17.0	-31	19	0	1323
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	76.5	16.2	19.0	16.0	17.0	16	90	2	1996
Erik Jones	76.2	21.2	13.8	14.0	16.0	75	22	0	1996
William Byron	74.7	13.2	17.8	17.2	16.8	-8	26	0	1992
Tyler Reddick	73.8	17.5	14.0	15.5	15.5	-11	5	0	798
Ryan Newman	72.1	19.8	16.8	16.6	17.2	16	28	0	1991
Ryan Blaney	69.2	12.6	15.6	18.4	17.0	-28	23	0	1993
Daniel Suarez	67.8	28.0	14.6	18.0	18.2	38	30	0	1993
Matt DiBenedetto	65.5	18.2	21.0	19.8	20.0	-12	12	0	1987
Cole Custer	64.0	14.7	20.3	21.0	20.7	-18	5	0	1193
Bubba Wallace	55.9	25.2	23.0	23.8	24.8	-34	18	0	1985
Chris Buescher	53.5	17.8	24.6	26.6	24.4	-73	15	0	1979
Michael McDowell	51.6	19.0	26.0	26.8	26.0	-44	15	0	1827
Ryan Preece	50.2	21.5	25.8	25.0	25.8	-17	12	0	1587
Ross Chastain	46.1	27.0	30.5	28.8	29.5	-2	45	0	1450
Corey LaJoie	46.0	30.2	24.8	27.2	26.6	-1	7	0	1978
Quin Houff	28.6	32.3	34.8	34.0	34.5	-3	1	0	1550
James Davison	28.1	33.0	35.0	35.0	35.5	-2	0	0	775
Joey Gase	28.0	36.0	35.3	34.3	35.7	0	3	0	1162

*Data reflects earlier races this season at Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Denny Hamlin	118.7	3.7	3.7	5.0	5.7	18	151	241	1005
Joey Logano	116.6	9.7	10.0	3.0	8.3	31	74	192	1005
Brad Keselowski	112.4	10.7	2.3	7.0	5.7	11	61	97	1005
Martin Truex Jr	108.8	2.7	9.0	6.0	10.0	36	127	171	1005
Kevin Harvick	105.8	13.0	5.3	12.0	6.3	-9	66	66	1002
Ryan Blaney	105.5	7.3	4.3	8.7	7.0	-5	48	99	1005
Christopher Bell	104.9	7.0	12.0	5.0	8.0	0	41	0	1005
Aric Almirola	96.3	25.3	9.7	6.0	11.3	49	22	25	1005
Alex Bowman	91.3	16.7	10.7	7.7	12.0	64	29	10	1005
Chase Elliott	91.1	4.0	10.3	11.7	10.7	23	24	53	1004
Kyle Larson	88.6	6.0	17.3	10.7	13.3	28	67	1	1003
William Byron	88.1	10.0	11.3	12.0	11.3	24	15	0	1004
Matt DiBenedetto	85.2	16.7	11.0	11.3	11.7	2	11	20	1005
Kurt Busch	79.5	11.0	14.7	14.7	13.3	-19	28	2	1004
Ross Chastain	77.2	20.0	15.0	14.0	15.0	-6	2	3	1004
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	76.1	18.0	17.0	14.7	15.3	2	21	1	1004
Austin Dillon	73.6	12.3	20.7	14.7	17.0	19	5	1	1004
Kyle Busch	73.2	6.0	26.3	23.3	21.0	-9	16	7	719
Tyler Reddick	72.6	14.7	13.0	20.7	14.7	-16	6	0	1001
Cole Custer	63.1	22.0	20.7	22.7	19.7	-14	7	0	999
Erik Jones	61.5	22.7	20.0	19.3	20.0	-18	0	0	1002
Bubba Wallace	60.7	19.3	24.3	22.7	20.7	-6	11	4	1001
Daniel Suarez	59.9	28.3	16.7	19.0	21.0	35	1	0	1003
Chase Briscoe	57.4	23.7	22.3	23.7	21.7	-15	0	0	1001
Chris Buescher	54.1	15.3	25.0	24.0	24.3	-35	4	0	999
Corey LaJoie	52.9	31.7	13.7	23.7	23.3	6	0	12	1001
Ryan Newman	50.0	22.0	25.0	27.3	25.7	-29	0	0	998
Ryan Preece	49.2	21.7	27.0	25.7	25.3	18	7	0	999
Michael McDowell	48.2	20.7	26.7	25.0	25.0	-30	2	0	1000
B.J. McLeod	38.8	32.3	30.3	30.7	29.7	-47	0	0	990
Justin Haley	37.3	31.0	28.3	30.0	30.7	-31	0	0	604
Anthony Alfredo	34.7	28.0	34.0	33.3	33.3	-15	0	0	767
Quin Houff	32.2	34.3	34.0	33.7	33.3	-17	0	0	882
Cody Ware	31.1	32.7	35.3	34.3	34.7	-16	3	0	771
Garrett Smithley	30.2	34.7	33.3	34.0	33.7	-12	0	0	972
Josh Bilicki	29.4	34.0	34.0	35.3	34.3	-10	0	0	922
James Davison	28.8	34.3	34.3	34.0	34.7	-20	0	0	733

Betting Targets

When I was reviewing this week’s betting lines, I noticed there is a lot of opportunity to exploit drivers that should be bigger favorites and vice versa. I believe there is going to be really sharp value in H2H match-ups this week and it will be our job to identify the mismatches. One of my favorite H2H targets is Joey Logano in all formats. I mentioned Team Penske’s success at similar layouts this season and I believe Logano has been the best with the 750HP package from the Penske stable. Furthermore, Logano’s stats at Richmond are mouth-watering with a 5.9 average finishing position over his last 10 starts. Logano is a two-time winner and has posted 6th other finishes inside the Top 3. Simply put, Logano is an underrated betting target going into Saturday night’s main event.

In terms of the outright victory, I do believe Truex and Hamlin are rightful favorites this week. I prefer Truex to be in my lineup over Hamlin but neither driver is going to produce a lot of value. Outside of Logano, I do believe guys like Brad Keselowski and Christopher Bell have spoiler potential. I will probably regret this decision but I am staying away from Keselowski based on overall performance over the last several weeks. Keselowski has just two top 5 finishes in the last 15 races and has simply not been consistent enough to provoke confidence. However, Christopher Bell has shown all of the check marks in the handicapping boxes. Bell is an excellent short-track talent and is finally in the equipment to display those skills as we witnessed back in the spring. It seems like bettors have written off that performance as a fluke with Bell getting near 20-1 odds at some books. I definitely don’t believe the spring performance was a fluke and I will gladly take Bell in all formats given the right value.

Two additional betting targets that will be in the lower-tier classes include Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon. I mentioned Dillon’s surprising Richmond stats in the loop data above and I believe he is an excellent bottom-tier H2H option based on current pairings. I don’t believe the public perception realizes how good Dillon has been at Richmond and that is reason to pounce. Aric Almirola is in a similar boat but with probably less sharp value stemming from his breakout win at New Hampshire. Almirola has always been solid on the flatter surfaces and has top 10 finishes in 3 of the last 5 races at Richmond. As a result, Almirola also has some solid H2H appeal because a top 10 finish would seemingly beat most of the drivers he is paired against and I personally believe a top 10 is definitely within reach for the #10 team.

Drivers to Fade

I know Kyle Larson is a generational talent that can win at any venue. However if there was a track to potentially fade Larson, Richmond would be among the top contenders. Larson has a 2017 win at Richmond on his resume and another runner-up finish. Outside of that, Larson has no other top 5 finishes and has finished outside the top 10 more often than not. Larson has publicly stated that he struggles at Richmond and while I would not expect a “bad” performance. I do believe guys like Truex, Hamlin, and Logano are in much better positions to contend for the victory on Saturday. As a result, Larson does have some fade appeal compared to the top favorites.

Another driver that has consistently struggled at Richmond is Ryan Blaney. Blaney won back to back races at Michigan and Daytona. Last week, I put Blaney on my fade radar at the most opportune time following those victories and I was spot on as Blaney limped to a 22nd place finish. This week I would be willing to double down on fading Blaney for the 2nd straight week based on his pathetic resume at Richmond. In 10 career starts, Blaney has never finished inside the top 10 and has an average finishing position of 23.4. I know the Team Penske cars have performed well at similar layouts this season but I’m not sure it will be enough to drive significant change with Blaney’s results because he has been awful at long run speed at Richmond throughout his career.

Draftkings 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +550 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +650 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +950 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

All below odds courtesy of Bovada

Christopher Bell -115 over William Byron (3 units)
Alex Bowman -130 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Austin Dillon -115 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Joey Logano +225 Top Ford Finisher (1 unit)
Ryan Preece +350 finishes Top 20 (1 unit)