2021 EchoPark 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 20th, 2021. 5:00PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Shortly after the Truck Series’ concludes at Atlanta Motor Speedway, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage in the 2nd act of Saturday’s double header with the running of the EchoPark 250. Last week, Austin Cindric scored his 2nd victory of the season at Phoenix in relatively dominating fashion after leading 119 of the 200 posted laps. The reigning series champion has wasted minimal time in reclaiming his dominance with 2 victories through the opening 5 races. While Cindric has clearly established himself as the guy to beat, Cindric and the rest of the Xfinity Series field will get a surprise challenger this Saturday when Martin Truex Jr steps into the #54 car with Joe Gibbs Racing.

The 2017 Cup Series Champion will be making his first Xfinity Series start in over a decade and fresh on the heels of last week’s win in the Instacart 500 at Phoenix. Despite the decade of inactivity in Xfinity Series competition, last week’s win may have influenced this week’s betting odds. Personally, I thought Truex would be listed among the favorites but I thought we would see much better value than the +150 odds that are currently listed at most major sportsbooks. Not only is Truex’s value saturated but oddsmakers have not relinquished any value on Austin Cindric either. Typically when high-profile Cup Series drivers suit-up for competition in the lower series, we see improved value throughout the rest of the field. However, that is not necessarily the case with Cindric who is listed at just 2-1 odds going into Saturday’s event.

Betting Strategy

The Xfinity Series has been my Achilles Heel through the opening weeks of the season. Last week’s race at Phoenix turned into a disaster with 3 failed H2H match-ups which results in a double digit unit loss. For the record, I thought the H2H plays were solid but unfortunately two of the drivers I targeted blew engines which resulted in DNFs. Either way you slice it, the Xfinity Series has been difficult to tackle this season and as I alluded to above; oddsmakers are not allowing much overall value for these races. As a result, I am forced into a situation where we must downgrade our risk this week and perhaps going forward until we see more favorable betting opportunities.

I have a lot of respect for Martin Truex and his driving style favors long-run speed which is extremely important at Atlanta. However, Xfinity Series cars drive differently than Cup Series cars. Without any practice, I just don’t see Truex hopping in and dominating which is what +150 odds tend to suggest. Based on the circumstances, there is way too much risk towards betting Truex this weekend. Likewise, Austin Cindric and the #22 team did not look overly dominant at Homestead or Las Vegas. Cindric led 63 laps at Homestead but that was from the start of the race after starting on the pole. The #22 struggled significantly at Las Vegas which leads me to believe he is also a risky bet this week. Therefore, I am likely going to take a few small risk chances on the underdogs this week to try to corral some value back into these Xfinity Series’ events.

Betting Targets

Even though I am not backing AJ Allmendinger this week, I have to give some credit to the “Dinger” for his performance through the opening 5 races. After a slight upset at Las Vegas, Dinger backed up his victory with a surprising 5th place showing at Phoenix where he has traditionally struggled. I have noticed that the Kaulig Racing cars are showing more speed this season as an organization and it has been very clear that Allmendinger is capitalizing on the opportunities.

For betting opportunities, I remain convinced that Noah Gragson is being undervalued by oddsmakers. Gragson has shown winning speed on multiple occasions already this year which was on full display at Homestead a few weeks ago. Homestead-Miami Speedway is another low-grip/high tire wear track and even though the track races differently; it is the closest comparable track the Xfinity Series has competed on compared to Atlanta. More importantly, Gragson has thrived on most of the low-grip surfaces which includes a runner-up finish in this race one year ago. At 10-1 odds, Gragson provides some of the best betting value on the board especially if the team can shake off the bad luck demons that have ruined their results in the last two weeks.

Outside of Gragson, I like Daniel Hemric and Justin Haley as drivers that provide value in all formats. I know Hemric continues to choke every time he has an opportunity to win but I think it would be foolish to avoid the speed he has shown in the #18 machine. I feel like we are getting close to one of those instances where you see a guy get close so many times and then one week he just puts everything together. Remember Cole Custer’s top 5 finishes in 2017 and then he just completely dominated the finale at Homestead seemingly out of nowhere? I feel like Hemric is going to break out with a similar result soon. The team just has too much speed to continue to fail. Lastly, I like Justin Haley as a deeper longshot option. I mentioned Kaulig Racing’s improvement earlier and if that continues I could see Haley getting multiple wins in 2021. Haley seems to thrive at the tracks that are hardest on the drivers just as we seen last year with a 3rd place finish at Atlanta despite a clear speed disadvantage at the time. With perceivable improvement thus far in 2021 in the speed department, Haley could be a factor again on Saturday.

Drivers to Fade

After two straight quality finishes at Daytona to open the season, Harrison Burton has surprisingly been a non-factor over the last 3 races. I think many expected Burton to take another step forward this year but so far that has not been the case. After a slow start at Homestead, the #20 team suffered a blown engine. Then at both Las Vegas and Phoenix, Burton consistently ran just inside the top 10 which seems like a step in the wrong direction from last year’s performance. Oddly enough, we have seen speed in the JGR cars so we know it’s not performance/equipment related. Simply put, the #20 team is not getting the job done and perhaps it is time that bettors take notice. Lastly, I know this will be an unpopular option but I really believe Martin Truex should be worthy of fade consideration this week. To be clear, I would not fade Truex unless I was getting decent plus value from the underdog side. However, I am not sold on the fact that Truex should be a heavy favorite for this race and would not be surprised to see some mild-struggles. If we can find significant underdog value, I believe we have to give some strong consideration in fading Truex if the correct match-ups present the opportunity.

Draftkings EchoPark 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 EchoPark 250 Betting Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +1200 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1200 (1 unit)
Justin Haley +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Matchups and Props

AJ Allmendinger -130 over Harrison Burton (2 units)
Noah Gragson +170 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
Justin Haley +125 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)