2021 Drydene 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday May 16th, 2021. 2:00PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last week, Martin Truex captured his 3rd victory of the season by conquering Darlington Raceway as NASCAR celebrated “Throwback Weekend.” Truex is the only driver in the Cup Series with multiple wins in 2021 and last week’s victory in the GoodYear 400 was nothing short of dominant. Truex led 248 of 293 laps and held off a late rally attempt by Kyle Larson in the single most dominant performance of the season. On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will attempt to tackle the Monster Mile and the site of Truex’s first victory in 2007. Once again, Truex will be the overall betting favorite as he looks to keep his momentum rolling. Take a look as we analyze the best betting options for Sunday’s Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway!

As I noted last week in our preview for Darlington, bettors should take notice of performance using the 750HP “low downforce” package which was utilized at Darlington for the first time last week. Martin Truex has been nothing short of incredible using this specific package which was the reason I added him at +800 odds late in the week. Going into Sunday’s Drydene 400 at the Monster Mile using the same package, Truex is in another prime position to capitalize on performance at one of his best tracks. Not only is Dover the site of Truex’s first victory in the Cup Series but Truex is tied with Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Ryan Newman for the most victories (3) among active drivers. Most importantly, Truex has been extremely strong in recent years at the Monster Mile with a victory and 3 straight runner-up finishes in his last 4 starts. As a result, this is the perfect opportunity for the #19 team and Truex to build on their early season dominance.

The only question that bettors should be asking is who can spoil Truex’s bid for a 4th victory this Sunday? Odds makers have made it nearly impossible to bet on Truex this week at roughly 4-1 odds unless you really narrow down your betting targets. While I do believe Truex is deserving of the odds, I will also state this may be a good opportunity to take notice of betting value surrounding a few other popular drivers that have shown strong trends at Dover. I will get to the drivers that I personally believe we should be targeting on Sunday a little later. For now, it would be rather ignorant to not mention Kevin Harvick as another top option. Despite some moderate performance concerns from the Stewart-Haas Racing cars, Harvick has still shown speed. We just have not seen Harvick lead many laps and run upfront as much as we are accustomed. However, Dover could be the place where “Happy” turns things around as he has produced two victories and 5 top 5 finishes in his last 6 starts. Harvick has posted a lucrative 125.6 average rating over the last 5 races which leads us into our loop data discussion.

Dover Loop Data

As stated above, Kevin Harvick’s 125.6 rating earns the top spot in this week’s loop data which pertains to the last 5 races at Dover International Speedway. Martin Truex, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin have also produced triple digit average ratings and are all former winners at the Monster Mile. When I review the loop data over the last 5 races at Dover, there are not many big surprises on this list. Perhaps Cole Custer deserves a notable mention for his finishes of 11th and 10th which include a solid 89.2 rating in his only two starts as a rookie in 2020. If not for the struggles from Stewart-Haas Racing cars, Custer would be an ideal betting target this week in the realm of H2H match-ups. On the other side of the ratings scale, I would also mention that Chase Elliott is surprisingly far down the list with an average rating of 78.6. However, I will say those metrics are a touch misleading as Elliott had two DNF’s in the sample timeframe. In the other 3 starts, Elliott posted a victory and two additional top 5 finishes.

Since the Dover loop data did not yield any surprises, I also wanted a visual representation of the performance using the 750HP package this season. As we witnessed last week, there is a decent distinction between speed that teams are showing between both of NASCAR’s rules packages for the Cup Series. Needless to say, we have to consider the performance trends using this package and below I have compiled loop data stats at the 4 ovals that have utilized the low downforce package at Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond, and Darlington. Obviously, these venues are all different from one another but if you really break down the performance from venue to venue; we have some pretty clear trends in the realm of performance. Therefore, I believe this data is worth keeping in mind as we move into our predictions below.

*Loop data from last 5 races at Dover:

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	125.6	7.8	3.6	3.8	4.4	47	292	510	1826
Martin Truex Jr	117.7	8.2	3.8	4.4	5.6	52	199	235	1826
Kyle Larson	110.9	5.0	8.3	5.3	7.3	3	91	154	1204
Denny Hamlin	104.7	9.2	7.2	9.6	9.2	-11	130	333	1823
Brad Keselowski	98.9	9.6	6.8	10.8	7.4	-15	33	75	1824
Joey Logano	93.9	8.4	13.8	11.6	12.2	23	66	37	1801
Kyle Busch	92.9	16.2	11.8	7.6	11.0	62	81	25	1826
Alex Bowman	91.0	12.2	8.0	11.8	12.2	86	97	16	1816
Ryan Blaney	90.3	11.2	10.4	17.4	10.8	-48	26	37	1721
Cole Custer	89.2	15.5	14.0	10.5	12.0	11	5	0	622
Aric Almirola	89.0	9.2	12.6	14.0	12.4	12	64	86	1821
William Byron	85.4	12.2	12.8	14.4	14.0	11	37	7	1819
Erik Jones	83.3	12.2	12.8	11.8	13.4	10	18	0	1823
Austin Dillon	79.2	19.0	15.4	13.6	14.8	-10	30	49	1821
Tyler Reddick	78.9	12.0	15.5	15.5	15.0	5	9	0	621
Chase Elliott	78.6	6.4	21.6	17.6	19.6	22	109	183	1129
Kurt Busch	75.8	14.4	16.6	16.0	16.6	4	30	3	1519
Matt DiBenedetto	68.7	16.6	15.2	18.2	17.8	-18	40	28	1815
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	66.4	18.0	23.2	21.0	21.8	3	36	8	1714
Daniel Suarez	65.6	21.4	21.6	18.6	20.6	7	37	22	1817
Ryan Newman	64.4	17.4	22.0	20.0	20.6	-48	13	0	1813
Chris Buescher	62.0	18.4	22.4	22.8	21.6	-44	4	0	1649
Christopher Bell	60.3	21.0	22.5	24.5	22.0	-27	4	0	619
Ryan Preece	55.4	29.3	23.5	24.5	23.3	1	2	0	1407
Bubba Wallace	54.4	26.4	23.0	23.6	23.6	15	13	0	1806
Michael McDowell	52.5	24.2	21.8	25.0	24.8	-10	4	1	1803
Corey LaJoie	43.8	29.8	29.8	27.8	28.8	-5	2	0	1789
Josh Bilicki	37.4	35.0	32.5	32.0	33.0	-11	6	0	601
J.J. Yeley	37.0	34.0	33.8	33.3	33.3	-20	0	0	1184
Ross Chastain	35.5	34.0	32.3	32.7	32.3	0	2	0	1083
B.J. McLeod	34.9	36.6	34.2	33.8	34.0	-32	0	0	1336
Quin Houff	30.7	35.0	34.7	34.3	35.0	-10	0	0	768
Garrett Smithley	29.8	38.3	36.0	35.0	35.3	-2	2	0	914
Joey Gase	25.2	38.0	39.0	37.5	38.5	-3	0	0	297

*Loop data from 2021 races using 750HP package on traditional ovals:

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	131.7	4.3	3.5	2.0	3.8	27	229	439	1505
Denny Hamlin	129.9	3.5	4.0	3.3	3.0	1	221	521	1505
Joey Logano	113.8	6.8	9.0	6.0	4.8	-16	79	198	1504
William Byron	104.0	5.5	8.8	5.8	8.0	26	38	9	1505
Ryan Blaney	101.7	8.8	4.3	10.0	7.3	13	51	192	1505
Christopher Bell	96.8	14.0	11.3	8.5	9.8	36	44	12	1504
Kyle Larson	95.7	10.3	17.0	8.0	11.8	72	87	1	1503
Chase Elliott	95.3	5.0	10.5	6.5	10.3	75	32	0	1505
Kyle Busch	93.9	8.0	13.8	11.5	11.8	35	40	10	1504
Kevin Harvick	93.4	9.5	7.0	11.3	9.0	-13	38	10	1502
Brad Keselowski	87.1	8.0	10.0	18.8	12.5	-18	58	48	1387
Alex Bowman	85.8	21.0	8.8	16.3	13.3	63	49	10	1387
Matt DiBenedetto	77.7	16.5	13.8	13.5	14.3	9	2	0	1502
Austin Dillon	75.4	12.8	16.8	14.3	15.8	9	16	1	1503
Tyler Reddick	75.2	14.8	12.8	17.3	14.5	11	21	2	1500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	68.8	14.8	17.8	16.0	18.0	-16	30	1	1501
Kurt Busch	68.0	16.8	19.0	21.0	19.0	18	36	0	1316
Ross Chastain	67.1	21.3	22.5	16.5	18.8	-27	2	10	1502
Chris Buescher	66.4	13.8	16.5	16.3	19.3	-45	10	1	1502
Bubba Wallace	65.1	22.0	23.8	19.8	19.5	7	15	27	1499
Aric Almirola	64.0	28.0	19.0	18.5	21.0	26	4	0	1216
Chase Briscoe	60.5	24.5	20.8	20.5	20.3	-27	0	0	1493
Ryan Newman	59.5	16.5	21.8	21.8	20.8	-43	0	0	1497
Erik Jones	59.1	21.5	18.8	21.8	19.5	-28	20	0	1404
Daniel Suarez	58.6	20.0	19.3	23.0	22.5	-11	35	0	1387
Ryan Preece	53.8	21.5	27.8	29.0	25.5	-16	39	0	1379
Cole Custer	52.4	23.8	28.3	27.0	24.8	-13	13	0	1303
Corey LaJoie	51.0	33.3	16.3	26.8	23.8	35	0	12	1373
Michael McDowell	48.1	16.5	25.3	27.0	25.5	-29	15	0	1383
Anthony Alfredo	39.2	29.3	29.5	30.0	30.5	-38	7	0	1263
B.J. McLeod	37.6	33.3	32.5	30.8	31.0	-44	2	0	1465
Justin Haley	36.3	31.0	29.8	31.3	31.0	-6	3	0	984
Quin Houff	33.4	32.8	32.5	30.0	32.3	-19	0	0	1474
Cody Ware	31.9	32.3	35.5	33.5	34.3	-16	3	1	1164
James Davison	31.8	34.8	33.3	29.8	33.3	-7	1	0	1473
Josh Bilicki	30.0	34.3	34.3	32.0	34.0	-16	0	0	1380

Betting Targets

In terms of the outright victory, I believe Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are the most obvious choices this week to challenge Truex. It’s hard to gauge who I like better this week between Hamlin and Larson. Hamlin has shown the better speed, under this package, but does not have the most impressive Dover resume. Unlike last week’s race at Darlington where driver input is more valuable, this week’s venue at Dover is more favorable to outright speed on the concrete surface. Aside from the favorites, I believe Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and William Byron are noteworthy intermediate options. Byron continues to show speed on a weekly basis with 10 straight top 10 finishes. Elliott has posted top 5 results in 7 of 10 career starts at Dover. Meanwhile, Logano is getting great value this week despite a lot of success under this particular package.

If odds do not get much better, this may be a relatively conservative betting week. I strongly feel like Truex could run away with this thing for the 2nd straight week. However, there are a lot of drivers with proven Dover resumes and nothing is for certain in this age of racing without pre-race practices. As a result, I will continue to put major focus towards H2H match-ups and prop bets to see if we can steal some value this week. For these wagering options, Christopher Bell is likely my favorite betting target this week. Bell is not getting a ton of respect this week following finishes of 22nd and 27th as rookie at the Monster Mile in 2020. Obviously, Bell is performing much better than his 2020 results with the #20 team at Joe Gibbs Racing. With that being said, I believe odds-makers and perhaps bettors are forgetting where Bell’s true skill set shines which is on the smaller layouts. While I would not classify Dover as a true short-track, it does have some similarities especially compared to Bristol. Bell conquered the Monster Mile in 2 out of 4 starts in the Xfinity Series and I believe this is a potential opportunity for the 2nd year driver to deliver another quality performance. Not to mention, the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have been excellent under this 750HP package. Considering the odds range, Bell tops the list in terms of sharp value this week for match-up purposes.

A few other drivers that I would also keep close on the radar surround the likes of Alex Bowman and Cole Custer. I mentioned earlier, at the beginning of our loop data discussion, that Custer posted solid finishes of 11th and 10th at Dover as a rookie. I am slightly hesitant to back Custer this week amidst the SHR struggles. However due to those struggles, Custer is being listed as a bottom-tier style betting option in the same range as drivers like Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse, Ryan Newman, and others. For that reason, I believe Custer provides some sharp value despite the struggles of late. For Alex Bowman, he is a driver that can be considered in all formats. Bowman has some dark horse potential with top 5 finishes in 3 of his last 4 starts at the Monster Mile. Since we have discussed the 750HP performance often in this review, it is only right we give Bowman a nod of the cap based on his win at Richmond under this same package. I know all eyes are on the likes of Truex, Hamlin, and Larson this week. However, I have a strong feeling that someone from the Hendrick Motorsports camp could surprise this week as well. Byron, Elliott, and Bowman all have the potential to make it happen!

Drivers to Fade

I strongly considered fades on Denny Hamlin and even potentially Kyle Larson this week. I feel like both drivers are slightly overvalued. The problem is that Larson always records strong results at Dover and Hamlin is arguably performing better than anyone in the Cup Series. While I believe both drivers are overvalued, I’m not sure they truly fit into the “fade” category either. A pair of drivers that currently check off all the fade angles include Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace. If you remember, I put Wallace on my fade list for the first time last week. The #23 team is not showing good speed despite their alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing and Wallace is not exactly delivering from behind the wheel. In fact, Wallace has yet to record a top 15 finish this season. If you expand on that fact with Wallace’s stats at Dover, he has failed to crack the top 20 in 6 career starts. In last week’s fade against Wallace, it only took a top 20 finish to cash against the #23 and that could be the same scenario again this Sunday.

In a less obvious scenario, Kurt Busch has also entered the fade list this week based on performance under the low-downforce package combined with relatively subpar results at Dover. Busch has an average finishing position of 18th through 41 career starts at the Monster Mile. The elder Busch does have a victory stemming from his 2011 win. However when you look at recent results, Busch has posted finishes of 13th or worse in 14 of the last 18 races at the Monster Mile. Unlike some of the other Chevrolet teams, Chip Ganassi Racing has not shown tremendous speed in recent weeks and I believe that will likely add to the continuance of these trends for the elder Busch.

Draftkings Drydene 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Drydene 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

*I did not see as much value in H2H match-ups or props this week so I kept the overall lineup relatively conservative. Good luck to all!

Martin Truex Jr +400 (1.5 units)
Joey Logano +1500 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1600 (.5 units)
Alex Bowman +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Christopher Bell -145 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Cole Custer -120 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)