2021 Drydene 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday May 15th, 2021. 1:30PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The Xfinity Series will have the opportunity to battle the Monster Mile on Saturday when the green flag waves for the Drydene 200 at Dover International Speedway. Last week, Justin Allgaier tamed The Lady in Black with a victory at Darlington Raceway. The victory was Allgaier’s 2nd of the season following his win at Atlanta and he is now tied with Austin Cindric as the only drivers with multiple wins this season. Despite Allgaier and Cindric’s success, we have still witnessed an abundance of parity in NASCAR’s Xfinity Series with 7 different winners through the first 9 races. Will the trend of new winners continue or should we put focus on the favorites on Saturday? Find out our thoughts as we present the Drydene 200 race picks for Dover!

Many casual fans and perhaps bettors mistakenly consider Dover International Speedway a “short-track.” In reality, Dover provides racing like an intermediate speedway. The concrete surface provides adequate grip and low-medium grade tire wear. Despite the one-mile length, drivers will be heavy on the throttle. A lap around the Monster Mile consists of slight lifting on corner-entry and feathering the throttle until the apex before full throttle again on corner exit. Simply put, Dover is more tailored towards raw “speed” than most would imagine from a one-mile layout. With that being said, bettors should put focus towards performance and speed indicators this season as the primary betting angle this week. Obviously track history cannot be ignored but we need to ensure our betting picks have shown the speed, in the 2021 season, to conquer the Monster Mile!

Tire Notes

Xfinity Series teams will run the same tire compound that was utilized in both Dover races in 2020. If you remember, the Xfinity Series ran back to back races at Dover International Speedway last August. Justin Allgaier won the first event over Austin Cindric (2nd) in relatively dominant fashion by leading 120 of 200 laps en route to victory. The next day Chase Briscoe put the #98 team in victory lane to cap off the weekend at Dover. With this week’s returning tire setup, I would expect the drivers/teams that performed well in last season’s races to be strong again. Additionally, another important note related to this week’s GoodYear tire information includes the fact that Xfinity Series’ teams will only have 4 sets of tires for the entire race. Obviously, this is a shorter race at just 200 laps in total and combined with the number of tire sets, these factors likely reduce the idea of late-race strategy having any critical impact on the finish of the race.

Betting Targets

I don’t have a lot of visual data to share this week for the Xfinity Series. I will have more performance data to share in Sunday’s Drydene 400 in the Cup Series that will likely be useful. For the Xfinity Series, we just have not seen many races on tracks that are simply tailored to raw speed and handling like Dover International Speedway. Perhaps Las Vegas is the closest in comparison this season and trust me that is a pretty strong reach to force similarities. As a result, I don’t have an abundance of analytical data to share this week for visual representation.

With that being said, I do believe we can make some decent predictions this week. If we stick to our angle towards “raw speed”, I believe the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have flexed the most muscle in the speed department this year. Austin Cindric deserves to be in that same conversation and perhaps deserves serious consideration after finishes of 3rd, 2nd, and 3rd in his last 3 starts at the Monster Mile. However, I would still give the nod of the cap to the JGR brigade in terms of outright speed. Ty Gibbs steps back behind the wheel of the #54 this week and we know he has been phenomenal this season.

Meanwhile, I personally believe Brandon Jones and Daniel Hemric are your biggest sleepers this week. Both drivers have posted 5 top 5 finishes and have shown “winning” speed. Now you don’t have to point out the fact that Hemric has never won despite a ton of runner-up and 3rd place results. Furthermore, you can also point out Brandon Jones’ relatively low winning percentage. With that said, I am not saying these drivers should be outright “favorites” this week. However, I do believe both drivers have the sleeper potential to pull out a victory especially if they can win the game of track position late in this event.

Drivers to Fade

I am likely going to remain conservative this week in the realm of match-ups. I mentioned last week that the Xfinity Series has been the toughest to predict this season and I stand by that particular statement. I will mention a couple of fade options for those who want to pull the trigger on betting match-ups. One name that I have not mentioned yet is John Hunter Nemechek who will be making his 1st start of the season in the Xfinity Series. The reason I have not mentioned John Hunter previously is because I don’t believe he will be a legitimate threat this weekend in the #26 for Sam Hunt Racing. Don’t get me wrong, the #26 car has shown solid results this year for an inferior team with several top 15 results with Santino Ferrucci and Brandon Gdovic behind the wheel.

Additionally, I have a ton of respect for John Hunter’s natural talent and believe he will run decently on Saturday. I just don’t believe Nemechek deserves to be in the same odds range as guys like Josh Berry, Jeb Burton, and Justin Haley who are all in much better equipment. Therefore, I believe Nemechek deserves strong fade consideration in all match-ups. Lastly, I am going to throw out one additional name that may surprise everyone in Justin Allgaier.

I feel like all signs are pointing to Allgaier this week. Allgaier won last week at Darlington, he is the defending Drydene 200 winner, and has shown excellent results at Dover over the last 10 races. Still, I don’t know if I trust the outright speed of the #7 team this week. Allgaier has captured both of his wins this season at tracks that produce heavy tire wear by basically having tremendous long-run speed and taking care of his equipment. In both of those races, the #7 team struggled early when outright speed typically shines and that has been a trend all season. With so much emphasis on outright speed, I’m just not confident the #7 team is going to be as strong as the odds suggest. Does that mean Allgaier is an outright fade candidate? Absolutely not but if we can find some + money underdog odds to fade the #7, it could be an appealing option as well.

Draftkings Drydene 200 Optimal Lineup

2021 Drydene 200 Betting Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +400 (1.25 units)
Ty Gibbs +700 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1000 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1400 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Josh Berry -150 over John Hunter Nemechek (2 units)
Ty Gibbs -125 over Harrison Burton (2 units)