2021 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 9th, 3:30PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Just like NASCAR’s top division, the Xfinity Series will also have an elimination playoff race this weekend at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL with the running of the Drive for the Cure 250. Last week, Brandon Brown cashed a 50-1 winner for our bets at Talladega in one of our biggest wins of the year. While we will likely not have any huge underdog winners this week, Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250 will officially be the 7th race of the season at a road course venue. Therefore, we have plenty of prior data that will provide a strong baseline of our expectations going into Saturday’s elimination race.

In terms of the playoff picture, last week’s race at Talladega definitely shook-up the points situations. Noah Gragson, Harrison Burton, and Brandon Jones are just barely above the cut-off line. Jeb Burton is just 8 points away from the cut-off line while the likes of Myatt Snider, Riley Herbst, and Jeremy Clements are all but eliminated barring a victory. However, there are guys as high as AJ Allmendinger that could be eliminated if disaster hits based on mathematical truths alone. Outside of the playoff picture, Josh Berry and Ty Gibbs will return to competition this week looking for upset opportunities. Gibbs has already struck gold twice this season on the road courses with wins at Daytona and Watkins Glen. While this will be Gibbs’ first appearance at the ROVAL, he remains a dangerous threat to the championship contenders that desperately need a victory.

Loop Data at the Road Courses

By default, this will be just the 4th Xfinity Series race at the ROVAL. The ROVAL is a relatively new layout at Charlotte Motor Speedway which debuted in 2018. Since there are many drivers with limited experience at the ROVAL, I thought this week’s loop data should look at the holistic performance trends throughout the season at road course venues. Therefore, I have compiled averages and metrics through the 6 prior races this season at road courses which consist of Daytona, COTA, Mid-Ohio, Road America, Watkins Glen, and Indianapolis. For what it’s worth, I believe Daytona is the closest comparison to the ROVAL from a layout standpoint but I’m not sure if the 2nd race of the season can be used with handicapping confidence based on the timing that has transpired since that event.

For the loop data below, we have a pretty clear 3-headed group of frontrunners at the road course races between Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs, and AJ Allmendinger. Though Cindric has the highest average, Gibbs edges out Cindric in the category of fastest laps despite running 1 less race. Either way, all 3 drivers have been really stout at this style of racing. While bettors probably already know this with Allmedinger and Cindric’s backgrounds, I think it is important to point out that Gibbs has statistically produced the same results. The only other two drivers with triple digit ratings are Justin Haley and Justin Allgaier. Haley comes as the biggest surprise with a 104.9 rating and also has one of the highest average running positions (8th) in our data set.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have a few other notable mentions for the wrong reasons. Last week’s winner Brandon Brown and long-time Xfinity Series veteran Ryan Sieg have posted awful results this season at the road courses. Both drivers have sub 65 average ratings with average running positions that reside outside the top 20. Another driver with dismal results includes Noah Gragson who clocks-in with a 70.2 average rating despite being one of the top talents in the series. Before we jump to conclusions, I will say that Gragson’s overall average was impacted by two early DNFs this season but he still has not produced the results that most would expect outside of those setbacks.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Austin Cindric	127.0	2.8	3.3	5.5	5.0	97	63	122	369
Ty Gibbs	121.4	7.6	5.8	11.4	7.4	-23	43	79	312
A.J. Allmendinger	119.9	5.8	13.8	7.7	9.7	121	64	56	356
Justin Haley	104.9	11.0	8.7	7.0	8.0	118	13	28	369
Justin Allgaier	100.0	8.3	8.7	15.2	10.2	23	5	8	358
Harrison Burton	93.9	7.0	17.8	11.5	13.5	-58	6	6	310
Daniel Hemric	91.1	10.3	10.7	13.3	12.5	-22	7	12	369
Jeb Burton	84.9	9.5	13.8	12.7	12.3	36	0	2	369
Riley Herbst	80.8	17.3	15.5	17.3	15.7	60	0	3	328
Myatt Snider	79.0	14.5	10.2	18.0	12.8	-33	1	0	369
Brandon Jones	77.5	19.8	17.5	14.3	16.5	12	4	5	307
Andy Lally	76.9	21.0	15.0	15.4	14.6	23	0	0	286
Noah Gragson	70.2	18.8	20.2	20.8	21.0	41	0	4	258
Brett Moffitt	69.9	15.0	21.7	23.7	17.5	-48	1	0	321
Jeremy Clements	68.8	16.7	16.5	20.7	18.3	50	0	0	358
Sam Mayer	68.5	23.3	16.0	24.0	20.7	28	2	0	138
Josh Williams	67.2	25.2	18.2	14.6	19.4	-43	0	0	323
Alex Labbe	64.6	20.8	18.7	21.0	20.2	18	0	0	315
Brandon Brown	64.5	12.3	20.3	16.2	20.3	-40	0	0	308
Jade Buford	61.6	17.8	19.5	23.2	20.8	-8	0	0	322
Ryan Sieg	57.4	26.3	23.3	22.2	23.3	16	0	3	321
Preston Pardus	56.2	24.2	19.3	24.3	22.3	-77	0	0	301
Landon Cassill	52.7	24.8	25.2	19.7	24.0	-13	0	0	369
Tommy Joe Martins	48.1	26.5	26.0	25.5	25.8	-54	0	0	271
Kris Wright	45.6	27.8	26.5	25.7	26.5	17	0	0	306

Betting Targets

For betting targets, I believe we have to give AJ Allmendinger major respect this week. Allmendinger has won the last two Xfinity Series’ races at the ROVAL and has also been the hottest driver in the series throughout the latter part of the year. With that being said, I still have my eye on Ty Gibbs as the dark horse among the favorites. The ROVAL is not necessarily a difficult track to learn and it seems to favor aggressive drivers. Both of those characteristics trend well for the rookie who will be going for his 4th victory of the season and does not have to worry about points racing.

Obviously I will have a heavier focus on H2H match-ups this week due to limited value in futures (win) odds. Among the drivers I have on my radar in H2H match-ups, I honestly feel like Noah Gragson may provide the sharpest value. Despite poor results at the road courses this season, Gragson has been really good at the ROVAL over the last two seasons. In two career starts, Gragson has two top 5 finishes which includes a runner-up finish last year. In last year’s race, Gragson arguably was the fastest driver throughout the day and I simply think this is a venue that suits his driving style. As a result, I believe Gragson can be targeted in all formats and perhaps has some dark horse appeal as well.

Another driver on my H2H radar includes Justin Haley which I mentioned above in the loop data. Haley has consistently been one of the top drivers behind the top 3 favorites yet he is often paired against drivers like Jeb Burton, Brandon Jones, and others who rarely have the same success at the road courses. If we happen to get similar pairings again on Saturday, bettors should back Haley with confidence. For deeper options especially in the realm of fantasy racing, Austin Hill and Preston Pardus are underrated road course talents that will be starting deep in the field. Expect both drivers to return value barring any misfortune.

Draftkings Drive for the Cure 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Ty Gibbs +450 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +1800 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1800 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Noah Gragson +115 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)
Riley Herbst -110 over Ty Dillon (2 units)
Myatt Snider -115 over Alex Labbe (2 units)