2021 Dixie Vodka 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 28th, 2021. 3:30PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series will vacate the shores of Daytona Beach this weekend and head nearly 300 miles south for another stop in the Sunshine State at the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The Sunshine State has not produced much “sunshine” through the opening two weeks at Daytona as both Cup Series events were impacted by rain. However, the forecast for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 contains sunny and warm temperatures which should provide slick surface conditions on the rugged 1.5 mile layout at Homestead.

Personally, Homestead-Miami Speedway is my favorite 1.5 mile layout because it has everything fans could desire to optimize the competition at the front of the field. The surface has practically no grip which means drivers will fight extremely loose conditions lap after lap. The track has progressive banking which means we will see various racing lines and grooves throughout the evening. The track produces a tremendous amount of tire wear which means long-run speed and pit stops will be extremely important towards obtaining and retaining track position.

Typically, 1.5 mile tracks in the Cup Series are extremely aero-dependent meaning manufacturing chassis/setups create undeniable advantages. For that reason, we typically handicap the 1.5 mile venues along the lines of performance trends across similar layouts. For Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400, we have an exception to that rule. Not only is this the first race of the year on 1.5 mile tracks meaning no performance trendlines have been established for the new season but we also must consider that the racing conditions require more input from the driver behind the wheel as compared to setups. This is one of the few 1.5 mile tracks where the driver makes more gains than the actual equipment in certain moderation. As a result, we should trust some of the historical trends at Homestead-Miami Speedway specifically and discuss the drivers that own the skill set suitable for this style of driving.

Homestead Loop Data

When we look at the loop data statistics provided below for the drivers with multiple starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the last 5 races, we see that Kyle Larson (117.6) and Kyle Busch (116.6) lead all drivers with the top average ratings. Larson missed the 2020 version of the Dixie Vodka 400 due to his suspension but still clocks-in with the top rating through his prior 4 starts. Despite a 14.5 average finishing position, Larson has led 30% of the laps over the last 5 races and has the most fastest laps in that time period despite just 4 starts. Due to Larson’s perceivable upgrade in equipment this year with Hendrick Motorsports, I would expect Larson will be an even bigger threat than normal on Sunday if the team can provide a decent setup under the #5 car.

Outside of Larson, I would point out the fact that both Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have been spectacular at Homestead over the last several years. Beyond the loop data metrics, Harvick owns a ridiculous 6.9 average finishing position through his last 10 starts at Homestead with finishes of 4th or better in 6 of the last 7 starts. Meanwhile, Busch has produced a lucrative 3.8 average finishing position over the last 5 races at Homestead which includes 2 victories. Despite struggling at Homestead for much of his early career, Busch has finished 7th or better in 8 of the last 9 trips to southern Florida.

Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, and Joey Logano also deserve a considerable amount of respect for their recent performances at Homestead. Truex has finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 12th in his last 4 starts. Hamlin is the defending winner of the Dixie Vodka 400 and appears to be the top weekly threat in the Cup Series. Meanwhile, Logano has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Homestead. Outside of these top guys which are likely least surprising, I would like to point out a few outliers. Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman, and Matt DiBenedetto are among the names that have greatly underperformed compared to their typical 1.5 mile averages. Meanwhile, last week’s winner Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick both impressed at Homestead in 2020 in their rookie debuts with 8th and 4th place finishes. Despite the lack of Cup Series experience, both drivers have some optimism around their opportunities to run well again on Sunday.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Pct. Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	117.6	12.0	1.3	14.5	6.5	34	191	322	30.1	1011
Kyle Busch	116.6	4.4	4.6	3.8	4.8	12	117	187	14.0	1336
Kevin Harvick	112.3	6.2	3.6	8.0	5.8	22	125	178	13.3	1335
Denny Hamlin	108.3	1.6	7.8	8.2	6.8	-10	74	180	13.5	1336
Martin Truex Jr	107.6	4.0	8.2	10.6	7.0	6	121	201	15.1	1325
Joey Logano	102.8	8.8	10.6	8.6	8.8	10	51	113	8.5	1334
Chase Elliott	96.9	10.6	9.8	8.0	9.8	26	54	27	2.0	1335
Brad Keselowski	89.4	4.4	10.6	15.0	10.0	-21	24	2	0.2	1323
Austin Dillon	86.5	17.6	11.4	9.8	12.8	40	15	0	0.0	1336
Kurt Busch	81.5	10.6	13.2	16.6	13.2	-17	16	0	0.0	1331
Erik Jones	80.8	13.0	17.5	18.0	15.0	-30	34	0	0.0	1062
Ryan Blaney	80.8	10.4	18.0	17.2	17.0	-19	56	70	5.2	1328
Aric Almirola	77.0	18.0	17.6	18.8	17.8	20	14	0	0.0	1276
William Byron	76.3	19.7	12.0	24.0	16.3	3	5	0	0.0	748
Alex Bowman	76.0	13.0	20.0	18.0	17.8	-2	6	0	0.0	1064
Ryan Newman	75.5	12.2	17.2	17.4	15.8	-24	5	0	0.0	1328
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	69.3	15.0	19.0	20.0	17.8	-27	16	1	0.1	1326
Michael McDowell	62.0	26.2	24.2	20.6	22.8	7	22	2	0.2	1326
Daniel Suarez	58.6	20.5	19.5	27.3	21.5	-8	2	0	0.0	1016
Bubba Wallace	57.7	22.3	23.0	22.7	24.0	2	0	0	0.0	776
Chris Buescher	56.4	23.2	23.2	21.2	23.6	-36	6	0	0.0	1329
Ryan Preece	56.0	29.5	27.0	24.5	24.0	5	3	0	0.0	529
Matt DiBenedetto	54.0	27.0	25.2	23.4	26.2	11	15	0	0.0	1323
Ty Dillon	51.5	30.6	24.6	26.6	24.4	3	0	0	0.0	1316
Corey LaJoie	38.3	30.8	32.0	31.3	32.0	-19	5	0	0.0	1045
Ross Chastain	35.3	37.5	36.5	34.0	35.0	9	1	0	0.0	501
Timmy Hill	27.9	38.7	37.3	34.7	37.0	3	1	0	0.0	759

Betting Targets

When you consider betting odds, I really like Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch as the top betting options this week. I know the #18 team has not produced the best results over the last year but Busch remains among the best raw talents in the sport. If new crew chief Ben Beshore can produce a decent piece, Busch has the talent to subside all prior troubles. Likewise, Larson is a similar talent that should have a great opportunity on Sunday. I look at Larson’s prior results at Homestead and ponder if he should be an even bigger favorite this weekend with better equipment than in previous years? Perhaps the #5 team would be more dangerous if this was the 2nd or 3rd race this season on 1.5 mile layouts but I think they will still be strong on Sunday.

For anyone wondering, I believe Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are worthy of their top two favorite spots according to odds-makers. Hamlin is at the top of his game and leads all active drivers with 3 career wins at Homestead. However, he is usually hit or miss at Homestead unlike Kevin Harvick who basically lives inside the top 5 with every trip to this venue. Between the two drivers, I side with Harvick simply for the slightly better consistency, the better odds, and because I still believe the Fords will be relatively strong on the cookie cutter layouts.

In the realm of H2H options, I believe Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell are obvious choices. Reddick has been absolutely phenomenal throughout his career at Homestead which includes back to back Xfinity Series wins (championships) with two different organizations. Reddick can run the high-line at Homestead like no other driver which he proved last year with a 4th place finish as a rookie. I would have considered Reddick a dark horse for the outright win but I selfishly wanted more value than the 20 to 1 odds allowed. Still, Reddick is a solid H2H and prop option if you can find value.

Bell is another obvious choice based on his move to the #20 team and recent 1st Cup Series win at Daytona’s Road Course. I stated before the year Bell was going to benefit from the move to the #20 in a big way and it has not taken him long to prove that point. With that said, I still believe he is a slightly risky option based on the drivers he is currently being paired against. Other additional options that I will throwout for suggestion surrounds Cole Custer in the #41 machine and Bubba Wallace in the #23. Custer did not have the success as the other two rookies mentioned above in last year’s Dixie Vodka 400 but don’t let that provide any unnecessary bias. Custer has always run extremely well at Homestead and he probably owns the most sharp H2H value out of any driver in the field going into Sunday’s race. Meanwhile, this is the event where Bubba Wallace should take a bigger step forward in virtually JGR equipment. Wallace has shown some flashes of success at these low-grip layouts and this race may be the opportunity to warrant a play on the #23 because I expect his performance will improve exponentially in the upcoming weeks.

Drivers to Fade

Last year, I mentioned Martin Truex Jr as a potential fade option despite 3 straight finishes of 2nd or better going into that event. Truex finished in 12th position which was a successful fade against many of the overall favorites. The reason for the fade at that time and perhaps again this week is the #19 team simply has not shown the best speed since former crew chief Cole Pearn exited the organization. Granted, this may be a relatively risky fade for the opening 1.5 mile race of the season but I just don’t think Truex belongs among the overall favorites. Additionally, I would also consider Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman as identifiable fade targets. Bowman just has never looked good here and I’m not sure if I have the perfect explanation based on his win last year at Fontana which is a similar low-grip layout despite being 2 miles in length. For Ryan Blaney, he simply struggles at all tracks where tire wear comes into play. Blaney has struggled throughout his career with long-run speed and managing tires which is why you see the consistent subpar results compared to other 1.5 mile tracks.

Draftkings Dixie Vodka 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Dixie Vodka Betting Picks

*Final*

Kevin Harvick +700 (1 unit) *early email play
Kyle Busch +1000 (.75 unit) *early email play
Kyle Larson +1100 (.75 unit) *early email play

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Busch -115 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Kevin Harvick +110 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -135 over William Byron (2 units)
Cole Custer +295 wins Group E (Briscoe, Wallace, and DiBenedetto) (1 unit)