2021 Daytona 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 14th, 2001. 2:30PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The sanctioning body of NASCAR hosted their first official event back on February 15th, 1948 on a 4.1 mile road course on the sandy shores of Daytona Beach. Just a year later, NASCAR created its strictly stock division, which has now become known as the Cup Series, which yielded some of the most revered names from the early years of racing in the likes of Buck Baker, Tim Flock, Lee Petty, and others. In reality, racing did not begin at Daytona in 1948 when you consider there had been races held on the beach for decades before. However, that first NASCAR event gave rise to generations of iconic drivers and historic events that have become synonymous with racing’s most prestigious organization.

Nearly 73 years to the day of that first race, NASCAR returns to Daytona Beach in anticipation to add another chapter into its esteemed history books with the 63rd running of the Great American Race. By now, NASCAR fans can recall some of Daytona’s great moments by mere phrases: “There is a fight”, “They both spin!”, and “20 years of trying, 20 years of frustration” are just some of the calls that transformed this race into one of the most prestigious spectacles in motorsports. On Sunday, NASCAR’s best will kick off the 2021 season with an opportunity to etch their name into the history books among NASCAR’s greats. As we prepare for history to be made for the 63rd time, we take the time to break down the 2021 Daytona 500 and provide the best betting options for yielding a profit in NASCAR’s biggest race!

Daytona Betting History and Strategy

For bettors, the superspeedways pertaining to Daytona and Talladega are not your most probabilistic handicapping events. Due to the rules package being used, drafting effects, and overall parity for this style of racing, nearly everyone in the field has a legitimate chance to win unlike most traditional weekends where the legitimate chances can be boiled down to just a handful of drivers. With so many surprise opportunities, this creates a disadvantage for bettors based purely on probability. The good news is that superspeedway races generally offer relatively generous betting odds to counteract the elevated risk. As a result, there are betting strategies that can be used to limit the amount of bets/risk while still providing substantial return that makes it worth the opportunity.

At the superspeedways, my strategy is usually pretty consistent. Try to find the best betting options based on raw value, spread your betting options across several drivers (more than regular races), and limit the amount of units wagered per bet to marginalize overall risk. By following these simple rules, we can provide a betting strategy that will lend long-term profits for superspeedway events. Before we start to discuss the drivers that fall into those categories, I would also point to the history of the Daytona 500 for logistic betting reference. Denny Hamlin has won 3 (2016, 2019, 2020) of the last 5 races in the Daytona 500. Hamlin is among the best superspeedway talents in the field and has been extremely dominant at Daytona.

Anytime NASCAR visits the superspeedways, I believe bettors inherently expect underdog style winners due to the opportunistic nature of this style of racing. However, the Daytona 500 has most often been won by those elite superspeedway talents. In the last 10 runnings of the Great American Race, Hamlin has 3 wins, Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, and Dale Earnhardt Jr have also captured victories which were among the betting favorites in those particular years. The only big recent underdog victories come by the way of Austin Dillon’s (+5000) win in 2017 and Kurt Busch’s (+2500) victory in 2018 which have been the two biggest odds wins in the last decade in the Daytona 500. Therefore keep in mind that just because the potential is there for a long shot winner, it is by no means guaranteed.

Daytona Loop Data

Rank	Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
1	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	89.9	12.4	13.6	21.2	11.6	20	17	93	860
2	Alex Bowman	89.0	4.6	11.2	14.6	12.2	17	19	5	868
3	Joey Logano	88.4	4.4	15.2	24.2	12.8	8	14	93	743
4	Kyle Busch	88.0	17.4	10.8	23.2	13.4	7	11	86	734
5	William Byron	87.8	8.2	22.6	19.2	17.6	69	17	80	611
6	Chase Elliott	86.4	15.6	14.6	21.0	14.6	92	19	37	745
7	Denny Hamlin	84.9	12.8	16.6	13.8	15.6	82	19	123	758
8	Matt DiBenedetto	83.3	19.2	13.0	14.8	15.8	11	25	49	856
9	Ryan Blaney	82.1	14.4	14.4	23.0	15.8	24	4	19	734
10	Michael McDowell	79.7	24.4	18.6	14.4	17.2	63	22	25	862
11	Ty Dillon	77.8	23.4	11.4	13.6	17.2	-2	34	3	863
12	Erik Jones	77.8	21.6	21.0	16.0	18.0	-8	31	16	859
13	Kevin Harvick	77.8	4.6	17.4	19.8	16.0	-74	14	26	853
14	Austin Dillon	77.0	15.2	15.8	19.0	17.4	26	21	46	861
15	Martin Truex Jr	75.8	9.2	11.2	19.0	17.0	-69	27	34	834
16	Kyle Larson	75.3	15.3	19.8	16.5	18.8	26	15	0	665
17	Ryan Newman	75.3	14.6	16.4	14.4	16.8	-66	28	16	862
18	Brad Keselowski	73.9	10.8	18.8	26.6	18.4	-21	17	40	692
19	Christopher Bell	73.5	20.0	21.5	17.0	17.0	2	14	2	369
20	Chris Buescher	72.4	19.6	19.6	14.2	19.0	1	9	1	858
21	Bubba Wallace	70.0	19.2	18.6	17.4	22.0	-7	26	0	836
22	Tyler Reddick	69.1	26.3	25.0	28.0	19.0	103	14	1	548
23	Kurt Busch	68.1	14.8	25.2	27.8	21.6	14	24	9	711
24	Aric Almirola	66.1	11.0	19.6	21.2	19.8	-54	18	7	841
25	Cole Custer	62.3	14.0	20.0	33.5	21.5	-77	4	0	332
26	Daniel Suarez	62.1	25.0	12.8	33.5	21.3	-2	7	19	486
27	Ryan Preece	61.0	26.5	20.5	26.5	22.5	-9	17	1	675
28	Jamie McMurray	59.2	21.5	29.5	26.0	23.5	-2	9	4	266
29	Ross Chastain	51.7	32.6	23.6	20.4	27.2	19	13	0	856
30	Corey LaJoie	47.2	32.2	27.6	16.8	28.8	13	6	1	764
31	Timmy Hill	43.9	33.5	35.0	25.5	30.5	47	5	0	361
32	Joey Gase	39.4	37.5	32.0	26.5	32.0	-84	0	0	647
33	Quin Houff	33.0	33.7	38.3	33.0	34.7	-63	1	0	359
34	B.J. McLeod	33.0	37.0	37.7	28.3	34.7	-11	2	0	429

If you are new to my previews, I often review loop data in some form or capacity. Loop data provides an average rating and statistical viewpoint of how certain drivers have performed at specific tracks. Obviously for superspeedway races, loop data does not have substantial relevance. Just one mistake at Daytona can create enormous multi car wrecks that often collect innocent victims. Those events minimize the relevance of performance averages and historical narratives. However, we can review loop data to determine the cars that often find their way towards the front of the field at Daytona. While historical trends do not provide any guarantees, we would like to put our betting focus on high probability options with significant betting value. After all, part of the recipe towards winning at Daytona is just positioning yourself at the front of the field in the closing laps. Therefore, we can observe these trends to gauge potential drivers that have a habit of running towards the front at Daytona that have a higher probability of success

Though Denny Hamlin has won the prior two events in the Daytona 500 and has been the most dominant driver in recent years, Hamlin ranks 7th in our loop data rankings over the past 5 races. Obviously, Hamlin’s poor performances in the summer races at Daytona have hurt his overall averages. However, I was relatively surprised to see Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Alex Bowman at the top of this list. Stenhouse has rightfully earned some credit for his superspeedway skills with wins at Daytona and Talladega. However, it was still surprising to see both Stenhouse and Bowman ranked so high in terms of raw averages. Though I will point out, Bowman has led just 5 laps in those 5 races. Other quick observations include very respectable results from Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and William Byron who are all ranked inside the top 5 with at least 80 laps led in the last 5 races. Again, these numbers don’t guarantee any results but it is important to realize the drivers that constantly put themselves towards the front of the field.

Betting Targets

Before I dive into the drivers I believe are most deserving of betting consideration, just remember this style of racing can produce any outcome. However if we side with the trend of winners that consistently stem from the top talents, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano remain your best superspeedway talents. Hamlin’s success at Daytona has already been documented. Logano is the 2015 winner of the Daytona 500 and has 3 victories at Talladega to his credit as well. Despite the 1 victory, Logano has routinely been at the front of the field at Daytona which leads me to believe another win is likely imminent. Brad Keselowski likely deserves to be in the conversation among the best Cup Series’ talents at superspeedway racing. Keselowski won the 2016 Coke Zero 400 at Daytona and has another 5 victories at Talladega. The only problem with Keselowski’s win tally is that his performance has struggled in recent years on these layouts often leading to more DNF’s rather than strong finishes.

Kevin Harvick (2), Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Erik Jones, and William Byron all deserve notable mentions for being prior Daytona winners. Harvick and Busch are obviously elite championship talents that deserve greater respect for their win potential. However, I am not sure anyone in that former group has the betting value that yields optimism going into Sunday. The only exception in the group is William Byron. If my readers recall, I noted that Byron was one of the most underrated superspeedway talents in NASCAR before we cashed a winning ticket at 30 to 1 odds in last year’s Coke Zero 400. I remain convinced that Bryon is a really talented driver for this style of racing and his current betting odds are pretty solid in terms of value which elevates his stock for legitimate betting consideration.

Among the drivers without any prior wins at Daytona, I believe Ryan Blaney stands out as the best betting option. Blaney posted a runner-up finish in last year’s Daytona 500 and his last two wins have come at Talladega. Blaney is an underrated talent and worth monitoring if odds improve closer to start time. The good news for this year’s Daytona 500 is that there are many long shot betting options with legitimate potential. A few drivers that do not get enough superspeedway respect include both Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace. Ryan Newman could also be thrown into that category from a statistical point of view. Newman, the 2008 Daytona 500 winner, is on the downside of his career but has posted top 10 finishes in 5 of his last 7 starts at Daytona.

Meanwhile, both Buescher and Wallace have potential and excellent betting value with nearly 50 to 1 betting odds. Buescher has posted top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 6 races at Daytona including a 3rd place finish last year. Meanwhile, Wallace will begin the 2021 season in the best equipment of his career with newly formed 23XI Racing owned by Michael Jordan/Denny Hamlin that includes a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing. Despite below average equipment in recent years, Wallace owns the best average finishing position (14.86) among all drivers with more than 2 starts at Daytona. Wallace has also been really close to scoring multiple Daytona 500 wins in recent years in the closing laps and recorded a runner-up finish in the 2018 Daytona 500. Considering the betting odds for both Buescher and Wallace, I consider both drivers must-plays in the realm of overall value even if you place small or half size wagers.

Betting Observations following Bluegreen Vacation Duels

Thursday night’s Bluegreen Vacation Duels provided our first taste of racing action at Daytona that will be the same type of racing that we will see in the Daytona 500 on Sunday. Therefore, it is only right that I share a few of the observations from the duel races for bettors to consider when constructing lineups. In the opening duel, Aric Almirola prevailed as the victor following a solid run which featured the #10 car at the front of the pack throughout the night. Denny Hamlin ran out of gas on the last lap but he was still the most impressive “driver” at maneuvering the draft. Ryan Newman and Christopher Bell performed better than I expected and appear to have fast rides going into the weekend. Joey Logano showed speed as expected and I would also throw a shoutout to Matt DiBenedetto who ran much better than his 12th place result may indicate.

Perhaps the key item to note from both duels is that the Fords looked strong. After a rain delay, Austin Dillon pulled out the victory in the 2nd duel thanks mostly to a huge push from Kevin Harvick throughout the last ½ lap. Harvick and William Byron appeared to be the strongest cars in the 2nd duel. Byron was tangled in an accident in the closing laps and will likely resort to a backup car. Both Dillon and Bubba Wallace, who finished 1-2, were deserving of their results. I thought Bubba made a few mistakes in managing the front of the field but he was able to consistently drive back to the front after falling back which is a really good sign. Personally, I will be monitoring Harvick’s odds as we move closer to start time. I know Harvick is among the weekly favorites but his car stood out as really strong in the draft. If we can get some enticing superspeedway value, the #4 car has some sharp value.

Draftkings Daytona 500 Predictions

I mentioned earlier that the superspeedway races are highly volatile and do not provide the most advantageous circumstances for handicappers. The same concepts and circumstances can be applied to fantasy racing for the Daytona 500. Since I have already outlined the drivers to potentially target, the main fantasy advice that I have for superspeedway racing is to focus on place-differential potential involving drivers with poor starting spots and ultimately do not be afraid to leave salary dollars on the table if needed to sustain value. Unlike traditional races where you may want to squeeze every salary dollar to build the optimal lineup, that is not a mandatory recipe for success in these types of races.

Due to Denny Hamlin’s misfortune with running out of gas on the last lap of Thursday night’s duel races, the back to back Daytona 500 winner will start in the 25th position. I normally do not like betting the fantasy chalk in superspeedway races but it’s nearly impossible to leave Hamlin off lineups in single entry formats. Amazingly, Hamlin finished 4th or better in all 4 superspeedway races in 2020 so I am rolling with the #11 to anchor my lineup again this week. I have also utilized relatively cheap options like Matt DiBenedetto, Cole Custer, and Austin Cindric lineup this week as well. All 3 drivers are below the $8,000 range and have ideal starting positions for fantasy value. I am a big fan of the Fords this week so if we can avoid the wrecks; I really believe those drivers will shine.

Among the top drivers, you could probably have a variance of choices to mix into lineups this week. I leaned towards Ryan Blaney over Kevin Harvick due to the starting position. I will probably regret that choice because Harvick looked super strong. Joey Logano is another strong option to anchor lineups this week due to his 2nd best average at the superspeedway races behind Hamlin. With those options in mind, I chose to pivot to the #10 in Aric Almirola. Almirola won the opening duel Thursday night and I’m assuming his ownership will be low due to the 3rd place starting position. However, I want to capitalize on the low ownership because I feel like Almirola is the type of driver that could lead several laps in this event and make-up for the starting position with dominator value. I just have a feeling the #10 will be strong throughout the day on Sunday and therefore will roll the dice for my final fantasy lineup spot.

Draftkings Daytona 500 Optimal Lineup

2021 Daytona 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +1000 (.75 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1400 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1800 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +1800 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +1800 (.5 unit)
Matt DiBenedetto +3500 (.25 unit)
Tyler Reddick +5000 (.25 unit)
Cole Custer +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ryan Newman +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +260 wins Group 2 (Ky. Busch, Keselowski, Byron)(1 unit)