2021 Cookout Southern 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 5th, 2021. 6:00PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The opening race in the 2021 NASCAR playoffs will take place on Sunday when the green flag waves for the historic Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Back in May, Martin Truex Jr delivered one of the most dominant performances in recent memory at Darlington by leading 248 of 293 laps en route to a victory in the GoodYear 400. Few drivers have conquered The Lady in Black to the fashion Truex accomplished back in May which makes the #19 a strong favorite again on Sunday. However, rest assured things will likely unfold differently in this weekend’s Cookout Southern 500 as teams and drivers bring their best for a difficult opening playoff event.

As a reminder, Cup Series’ teams will utilize the 750hp rules package again this week. Previously, NASCAR utilized the 550hp package at Darlington during the 3 races in 2020. Kevin Harvick (2) and Denny Hamlin swept the Darlington races in 2020 in a season where both drivers combined to score 16 victories. Shockingly, both Hamlin and Harvick are still searching for their first victory of 2021 and judging by both drivers’ historical stats they could both have great opportunities on Sunday. With that being said, the rules package from those races last year was changed over to the 750hp (low-downforce) package in the spring race this season which appeared to make the cars more difficult to drive which is something to keep in mind as we head towards the weekend.

From a handicapping perspective, I provided the following explanation in Sunday’s Truck Series which articulates the angles that must be considered for Darlington. “The tough aspect towards handicapping this race is that there are not any tracks that can closely compare to Darlington Raceway. The significant tire wear the racing surface produces is along the lines of what we see at Homestead and Atlanta; perhaps even more significant. However, the layout of the track and the banking is unlike any other of its kind with two completely distinct corners. Despite the disposition, Darlington remains a driver’s track where handling and raw speed take a backseat to each drivers’ ability behind the wheel. As a result, our betting focus should be geared towards the top talents even if that means sacrificing value. If you look through the history books, the top driving talents in the sport consistently rise to the top at Darlington and that is a testament to how skilled you must be to conquer The Lady in Black.”

Loop Data for Darlington

Following that narrative, I compiled loop data stats over the last 5 races at Darlington to show a performance breakdown from recent events. Keep in mind, 4 of these races included a different rules package and while I believe the driver is more responsible for success at Darlington; we still cannot completely ignore the rules package equation. In terms of the ratings, Kyle Larson leads all drivers with a 119.9 rating but that only includes a two race sample due to the fact Larson missed all of the 2020 events. Larson has never won at Darlington but has finished 3rd or betting in 4 of his last 5 starts which includes a runner-up finish in the spring race back in May.

Behind Larson, Harvick, Truex, and Hamlin are the only drivers with triple digit ratings. Those 3 drivers have compiled 6 of the last 8 wins at Darlington Raceway. Without much surprises at the top, Erik Jones stands out with a 97.7 average rating which includes the biggest win of his career back in 2019. While Jones does not have the equipment to replicate those results, Darlington remains one of his better tracks. On the other end of the spectrum, Ryan Blaney and Aric Almirola are notable underperforming candidates. Despite winning the last two races, Blaney enters Darlington with just 1 career top 10 finish in 9 career starts with an average finishing position of 19th. Based on the recent victories, this could be the perfect time to fade Blaney but we will discuss that a little later.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	119.9	8.5	10.0	2.0	5.5	35	51	44	660
Kevin Harvick	114.4	9.4	3.2	3.0	7.0	35	114	211	1528
Martin Truex Jr	113.8	12.4	9.2	10.8	8.2	-1	201	460	1526
Denny Hamlin	103.0	8.8	5.0	10.6	7.2	9	67	36	1517
Kyle Busch	99.2	16.2	9.0	8.2	10.6	73	84	127	1527
Erik Jones	97.7	20.8	9.8	7.2	10.4	86	59	106	1526
Chase Elliott	96.6	8.6	11.8	17.6	9.0	38	88	151	1518
Alex Bowman	96.6	12.0	7.4	12.2	9.2	13	88	42	1524
Joey Logano	94.0	8.8	15.4	10.8	10.6	-17	31	19	1526
Brad Keselowski	92.3	3.4	14.8	11.4	11.8	-36	76	110	1525
William Byron	91.0	12.2	12.8	15.4	12.8	22	23	3	1512
Kurt Busch	85.9	15.4	14.6	13.6	14.4	48	102	99	1341
Tyler Reddick	81.1	19.3	16.0	13.8	14.3	54	31	2	1159
Ryan Blaney	79.9	9.0	21.8	16.4	16.0	-5	19	0	1526
Austin Dillon	75.9	12.2	19.2	11.8	16.4	-40	7	0	1526
Ryan Newman	73.0	20.4	15.0	15.4	17.0	40	13	5	1525
Aric Almirola	71.5	16.2	18.4	16.4	18.6	40	2	0	1239
Christopher Bell	66.7	23.5	12.3	20.8	18.8	2	12	3	1142
Chris Buescher	66.1	19.8	15.6	20.4	19.6	-58	20	1	1519
Cole Custer	60.2	18.5	23.3	25.3	23.3	-37	9	0	963
Ryan Preece	59.9	22.0	24.8	24.6	23.6	-29	1	0	1384
Bubba Wallace	57.4	21.2	25.2	24.0	22.8	-59	20	3	1373
Daniel Suarez	54.7	22.0	24.6	22.2	23.8	-52	0	1	1520
Michael McDowell	53.8	21.8	22.8	24.2	24.6	-5	13	0	1430
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	51.4	28.0	27.8	27.4	27.4	57	24	0	1215
Ross Chastain	51.0	27.7	28.3	24.0	25.7	9	1	10	1012
Corey LaJoie	45.6	26.8	27.2	30.0	28.2	0	1	0	1350
Quin Houff	34.3	32.3	33.5	30.8	33.3	-11	0	0	987
Joey Gase	32.8	35.0	34.8	31.5	34.0	-15	4	0	1196
Josh Bilicki	31.2	38.3	33.3	33.0	33.7	-17	2	0	887
B.J. McLeod	29.5	36.3	35.0	36.5	35.8	-7	0	0	694
Garrett Smithley	28.7	33.3	36.3	35.3	36.0	-10	5	0	675
James Davison	27.9	36.0	35.0	35.0	35.0	-7	0	0	448

Betting Targets

Despite two wins at Darlington last year and 3 wins overall in his career, I really can’t get behind Kevin Harvick this week when considering his overall performance in 2021. I feel like a lot of people will be on Martin Truex due to the dominance shown in the spring race and it’s hard to deny the #19 teams’ performance this year with the 750hp package. Call me crazy but we rarely see repeat winners at Darlington as the track conditions will be extremely different this week which includes a new piece of asphalt through turn 4. I love Truex’s long-run ability but I wish the team would have shown better speed in recent weeks to give me more confidence.

I believe Kyle Larson is the driver to beat and Denny Hamlin should also be given the utmost credit in the group of overall favorites. I warned everyone that we would sacrifice value this week and focus on the best drivers. I believe Larson and Hamlin are the most reliable betting targets among the favorites. Of course I will be looking into H2H match-ups for sharp value this week especially since our ROI potential will be limited on futures (win) bets. My favorite H2H targets surround the likes of William Byron and Erik Jones. I know Jones seems like an obvious H2H pick this week but he is still being listed against bottom-tier competitors. Despite the obvious downgrade with Richard Petty Motorsports, Jones still finished 18th in the spring race and has a resume at Darlington which includes finishes of 8th or better in 6 of 7 starts. Therefore, Jones can still provoke value in the right pairings.

For William Byron, I believe he produces some dark horse potential this weekend. Byron is one of those drivers that is usually strong on longer runs and has a habit of staying out of trouble. Both characteristics are important for Darlington. More importantly, Byron has improved with every appearance at Darlington in his young career finishing with a career-best 4th place result in the spring. If I could list all the betting angles I consider for this type of race, Byron checks off all the boxes. Another sleeper H2H options includes the #14 of Chase Briscoe. Most people forget Briscoe’s iconic and eye opening win in the Xfinity Series last year at Darlington when he bested Kyle Busch in the closing laps for victory. Briscoe has a proven track record at Darlington and finished 11th in the spring race despite Stewart-Haas Racing’s early struggles. Another driver with tremendous upside in the H2H department, Briscoe deserves to be kept on betting radars this week.

Drivers to Fade

One of my favorite drivers to fade this week includes the #12 of Ryan Blaney. Blaney has been red-hot in recent weeks with victories at Michigan and again at Daytona. However, Darlington is one of Blaney’s worst tracks where he has just a single top 10 finish in 9 career starts. In reality, that fact is not entirely surprising as Blaney has traditionally struggled at the low-grip tracks with heavy tire wear. Therefore, I’m not only fading Blaney on statistics this week but also driving style comparisons as well. Another solid fade option among bottom-tier talents includes Ricky Stenhouse Jr who has just one Top 15 finish in 11 career starts. Lastly, I will also throw out Chase Elliott’s name as a potential fade option. The Hendrick Motorsports cars have been great this season which is concerning when considering fade options. However, Elliott has not been great at Darlington with a career average finishing position of 17.2 in 9 career starts.

Draftkings 2021 Cookout Southern 500 Optimal Lineup

2021 Cookout Southern 500 Betting Picks

*More plays to be posted closer to start time*

Kyle Larson +300 (1.5 units)
Denny Hamlin +750 (.5 unit)
William Byron +1200 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1400 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chase Briscoe -130 over Daniel Suarez (3 units)