2021 Cook Out 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday April 9th, 2021. 8:00PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

On Friday night, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage at Martinsville Speedway for the running of the Cook Out 250. The last time we had the luxury of setting eyes on the Xfinity Series was 3 weeks ago at Atlanta Motor Speedway. In that event, Justin Allgaier outlasted Martin Truex in the closing laps to earn his 1st victory of the season. In similar fashion to the Cup Series, the Xfinity Series has produced significant parity this season with 5 different winners through 6 races. Austin Cindric remains the only driver with multiple victories stemming from his wins at Daytona and Phoenix.

Despite the parity, Martinsville Speedway provides a completely different racing venue this weekend compared to tracks already visited in 2021. The half-mile paperclip is an extremely flat surface that requires drivers to use heavy braking and find a way to slowly roll the bottom of the corners to turn fast laps. There are not many tracks on the schedule that provide close comparisons to Martinsville. In fact, the Xfinity Series only recently returned to racing at Martinsville in 2020. Before last year’s race, the Xfinity Series had not competed at Martinsville in nearly 15 years. As a result, we only have last year’s Draft Top 250 as the only recent race at Martinsville in the Xfinity Series for historical data.

I never base handicapping picks on any single data element but I must admit this is a relatively weird scenario. Not only do we have just 1 prior race at Martinsville but the Xfinity Series’ dates for Iowa and Gateway were cancelled in 2020. Both Iowa Speedway and WWT at Raceway share some similarities to Martinsville. Iowa Speedway is the closest track in layout, banking, and requires similar driver input. WWT at Gateway is a larger surface but has some of the heavy braking characteristics. Without any recent races, this Friday’s event at Martinsville becomes even harder to predict. The Xfinity Series has already been difficult for bettors this season and I’m afraid this Friday’s race will require a conservative approach yet again.

Breaking down the favorites

Harrison Burton won last year’s return to Martinsville in the Top Draft 250. Burton led 81 of 250 laps in route to the victory. As you can imagine, Burton will be among the overall favorites this week to defend his trophy. Personally, I don’t think Burton has run well enough to warrant the betting odds he is currently receiving. Burton has posted just 2 top 5 finishes through the first 6 races and Martinsville is a track that is heavily dependent on track position which means it will be hard to repeat without consistently running towards the front of the field.

As I move Burton further down my list, the two names that really stand out among the favorites are Justin Allgaier and AJ Allmendinger. Granted we could make arguments for Austin Cindric on a near weekly basis because he is definitely capable of winning anywhere. Still from a performance and stylistic standpoint, Martinsville favors the talents of Allgaier and Allmendinger. Allgaier finished 2nd to Burton in 2020’s lone Martinsville event and he also won back to back races at Richmond which is another track where drivers must roll the corners while attempting to save the rear tires. Allgaier has always displayed strong short-track skills and this will be another great opportunity for the #7 team.

Meanwhile, Martinsville was actually among Allmendinger’s best tracks during his Cup Series tenure. The heavy braking zones favor Allmendinger’s open wheel/road course skill set. Based on how the Kaulig Racing cars have greatly improved this year, I can only expect that Allmendinger’s chances will be even better this week. The veteran driver led 68 laps in last year’s Draft Top 250 before getting into trouble late in the race. If he can keep the nose clean, he is my sharp pick among the favorites this week!

Betting Targets

Without repeating anything above, I believe Allmendinger provides the sharpest value among the favorites this week in the form of H2H match-ups. A few other guys that I will have on my radar include Ty Gibbs and Jeb Burton. Gibbs is making his 3rd start in the #54 car and has been phenomenal through his first two starts with a win at the Daytona road course and a runner-up at Phoenix. If I conducted my research correctly, I don’t believe Gibbs has competed at Martinsville previously. However, the young driver does have multiple wins at WWT at Gateway and Iowa which I mentioned earlier have similarities to Martinsville.

Personally, I was skeptical of Gibbs chances at Phoenix and he nearly pulled out another surprise victory. I am skeptical again this week simply because Martinsville typically favors experience. However, nobody can deny that Gibbs is a sensational talent and if we can find the #54 paired against “non-favorites” then he should be targeted with confidence. Lastly, Jeb Burton and Riley Herbst are guys that deserve a lot of attention this week potentially in H2H formats. Burton finished 4th in last year’s race at Martinsville driving for J.R. Motorsports. More importantly, Burton has always performed extremely well at the short/flat style racing surfaces. Burton provides true dark horse potential and sharp H2H value. Meanwhile after a slow start to the 2021 season, Herbst has recorded finishes of 4th (Phoenix) and 6th (Atlanta). Following a 6th place finish at Martinsville in 2020 with better equipment and experience under his belt, Herbst is another driver that deserves attention in all formats.

Drivers to Fade

For Friday’s Cook Out 250, I don’t have any drivers that are just screaming to fade. Based on current odds, I strongly believe Harrison Burton and Austin Cindric are overvalued among the favorites. Cindric has improved his short-track skills considerably over the last two years but I don’t think he belongs in the +500 range. For Burton, I understand he had an outstanding run in last year’s race but he has not shown enough consistency to be labeled in the same odds range as the other favorites. If I can find fairly even match-ups fading Cindric or Burton against the likes of Allgaier or Allmendinger, I will take my chances on those match-ups with confidence. Additional options to fade include the likes of Brandon Jones and Ryan Sieg who have both struggled mightily throughout their careers on the shorter/flatter surfaces.

Draftkings Cook Out 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 Cook Out 250 Betting Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +500 (1.5 units)
Noah Gragson +1200 (.75 unit)
Jeb Burton +2500 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +6600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Riley Herbst -125 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)
Justin Allgaier -105 over Harrison Burton (2 units)
Jeb Burton +125 over Brandon Jones (2 units)