2021 Contender Boats 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday February 27th, 2021. 4:30PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series returns to action on Saturday with a star-studded lineup for the Contender Boats 250 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. One week after Ty Gibbs dazzled to victory in his Xfinity Series debut at the Daytona road course, the series will now move to perhaps the most exciting 1.5 mile venue on the circuit at Homestead. Considered quite possibly the biggest drivers’ challenge among 1.5 mile layouts, Homestead rarely disappoints in terms of competitive racing and several of the sports popular names will join the Xfinity Series’ regulars on Saturday including Tyler Reddick, Ty Dillon, Josh Berry, and others. As we prepare for an exciting afternoon of racing, it’s time to break down Saturday’s Contender Boats 250 and provide the betting options!

Contender Boats 250 Betting Preview

When I saw Tyler Reddick’s name on this week’s entry list, I knew that he would be a heavy favorite. Reddick won back to back Xfinity Series titles due to victories at Homestead with two different organizations in JR. Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing. Reddick’s “wheelman” style talent is perfect for Homestead’s low-grip conditions where the racing groove tends to gravitate to the outside retaining wall. Reddick has perfected the rim-riding role that shines at Homestead and posted outstanding numbers at Homestead which includes two victories in just 3 starts. Reddick even surprised Cup Series’ fans by recording a 4th place finish in his rookie debut at Homestead in last year’s Dixie Vodka 400. Needless to say, it is the least bit surprising to see Reddick as this Saturday’s overall betting favorite.

Perhaps, most surprising is the fact there are so many other drivers in close proximity in terms of betting odds. Noah Gragson, Austin Cindric, Ty Dillon, and Harrison Burton have all been listed at less than 10-1 odds at different points throughout the week. Burton won the Hooters 250 last year at Homestead which has produced conservative odds this week on the #20 car. The Xfinity Series actually competed in back to back races last years at Homestead on consecutive days. Burton won the opening event and Chase Briscoe won the 2nd race. However, Noah Gragson is the driver that dominated both races but somehow could not get the victory in either event. With all that being said, win odds are really limited this week and I just don’t see the opportunity for another upset winner like we had by taking Ty Gibbs at 50 to 1 odds last week. These races at Homestead are not for surprise winners and typically favors the top drivers. As a result, our win bets will be conservative this week.

Despite the distasteful betting odds, it is probably a good idea that we approach this race with caution. In the first two weeks of the season, we have experienced the wildcard of superspeedway racing and the unique skill set of road course racing. On Saturday, drivers and teams return to the typical prototype which is 1.5 mile layouts. With this being the first race of the season, we do not have much performance trends to analyze. The 1.5 mile tracks are very aero-dependent and typically trend together in performance. At this point in the season, we really don’t know the teams that have the best 1.5 mile programs. We can obviously speculate from last year’s results and trending observations however the ultimate point is that this is the first event of its kind for this season. From a betting standpoint, it only makes sense to approach this race with caution and perhaps a slightly downgraded risk game plan.

Betting Target

The good news for bettors is that Homestead is not solely performance based. As I mentioned earlier, the driver makes up a lot of time at this speedway especially on the long-run when tires start wearing and drivers have to muscle their way through low grip conditions. At face value, these circumstances appear tailor made for Tyler Reddick. However, I am not convinced that Reddick should be the overall favorite this weekend. On talent alone, I would say absolutely but Reddick will be behind the wheel of the #23 car for RSS Racing which is owned by the family of Ryan Sieg who competes regularly in the #39 car. Sieg has shown flashes of success in the #39 car but has been far from consistent. Meanwhile, the team has fielded several part-time drivers in recent years including Myatt Snider, Natalie Decker, Joey Gase, Ross Chastain, Brandon Brown, and many others. Of all those opportunities, not one driver has recorded a top 5 finish, outside of the #39 with Ryan Sieg, in the entire team’s history.

Therefore, I am not convinced Reddick deserves to be the favorite for this race at disgusting 2.5 to 1 odds. Austin Cindric deserves decent respect at 5 to 1 odds. The #22 team has shown the most speed at 1.5 mile venues over the last 2 years and Cindric has the talent to get the job done. Ty Dillon will jump into the #54 car this week following Ty Gibbs victory a week ago. The former Cup Series driver should be able to run well but he is far from the “favorite” status which is indicative of current betting odds. Brandon Jones and Harrison Burton have legitimate dark horse potential. Jones could be the driver that is completely forgotten this week and provides significant betting value. Jones had several high profile wins last year including at Darlington and has shown the ability to run upfront at Homestead. Personally, I believe Jones holds more H2H value but he can be given consideration in all formats.

Ultimately, the driver that I expect to be the biggest threat on Saturday surrounds the #9 of Noah Gragson. I mentioned earlier that Gragson dominated both races at Homestead in 2020 despite failing to get to victory lane in either show. Still, Gragson drives the car as hard as anyone in the field which was obvious in both races last year. Gragson actually led nearly half of the laps in each race and scored the most fastest laps from both races combined. Personally, I am not a fan of Gragson but his skill set favors this type of racing. After watching his drive at Homestead in both races last year, I believe the driver of the #9 car will be the one to watch when the green flag waves.

Drivers to Fade

I am doubling down on the fact that I think Tyler Reddick is worthy of fade consideration this weekend. I just don’t think he deserves to be the outright favorite given the equipment he will be driving. Other drivers that deserve fade consideration include guys like Daniel Hemric and Justin Allgaier. Hemric may be the more risky fade option given his upgrade in equipment but I still feel like this type of driving does not fit his skill set. Meanwhile, Justin Allgaier has only cracked the top 10 twice in 12 career starts at Homestead and led just 7 laps combined throughout his career at this venue. Based on the guys Allgaier will be paired against, he should be a sharp fade candidate.

Draftkings Contender Boats 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 Contender Boats 250 Betting Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +330 (1.25 units)
Austin Cindric +500 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +6600 (.25 unit) *early email play

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Noah Gragson -115 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)