2021 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 28th, 2021. 7:00PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Just one race remains in the Cup Series’ regular season which will be decided with an inevitable chaotic finale this Saturday with the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. For many drivers, this will be the last opportunity to secure a ticket in the playoffs and decide the significance of the rest of their seasons. Back in February, Michael McDowell delivered one of the biggest upsets in recent memory with his victory in the Daytona 500. That victory has already secured McDowell’s ticket into the Chase and now we await to see if another big underdog can steal a victory to send their team into the playoffs. We breakdown all of the potential betting opportunities and discuss drivers to consider with our 2021 Coke Zero Sugar 400 race picks!

Obviously, there is not a handicapper on earth that can truly “predict” these superspeedway races. Personally, I think it is hysterical when people try to release “insider” or “guaranteed” bets for a place like Daytona and that is something you see a lot when the season is kicking off with the Daytona 500. In reality, you could draw names out of a hat and be semi-successful with small sample sizes. For our readers, I can tell you that our focus for superspeedway races is based on long-term strategy. We know we are not going to hit every superspeedway winner. However, if we limit our overall risk and target drivers with sufficient ROI for this volatile style of racing; we can profit long-term by capitalizing our gains with the winners that we do cash. As a result, expect another low-risk approach this week that targets drivers with premier “value.”

Loop Data for Daytona

Fortunately, we can exclude the conversation about rules packages this week and the differences in performance between the two packages. For superspeedway races, I like to observe historical track data which indicates the drivers that have a habit of running at the front of the pack. Ultimately, we want our betting targets to be focused towards drivers that routinely find the front of the field at the superspeedway races. Since this racing is so chaotic with a lot of carnage, all we can hope for is that our betting selections be in position for a victory in the closing laps and that is where I leverage the historical loop data trends as one of the many tools to decide bets at Daytona.

In this week’s loop data, I have simply provided an accumulative viewpoint of the last 5 races at Daytona. As you can see, we don’t have any drivers with triple digit average ratings this week for the first time this season. Needless to say, it is hard to stay upfront at these races and/or avoid trouble. With that being said, Denny Hamlin still has the rightful place as the top driver. Hamlin has 3 victories at Daytona, all in the Daytona 500, which is the most among active drivers. In close proximity, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano trail Hamlin by just a few points. Personally, I believe Logano and Keselowski are the best superspeedway talents in the Cup Series behind Hamlin. Between the two drivers, Logano has been much better at Daytona whereas Keselowski’s success has mostly come at Talladega.

Obviously we will not be able to take a bunch of favorites this week as we will put heavy emphasis on drivers that yield betting value. Drivers that I believe are budding with potential include the likes of William Byron, Austin Dillon, and Michael McDowell from the loop data ratings. Byron captured his 1st victory in this race last year and remains one of the most under-rated superspeedway talents in the Cup Series. Austin Dillon is a really aggressive driver that knows how to win at Daytona. More importantly, Dillon must win this weekend to make the playoffs and the Richard Childress Racing cars have shown plenty of speed this year to get the job done. Lastly, Michael McDowell may seem like a fluke and chances are he will not strike gold for a 2nd time this week. However, I also believe people are overlooking the fact that McDowell has been excellent on the superspeedways this year. After the Daytona 500 win, McDowell also finished 3rd at Talladega with a near triple digit average rating between the two events.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Denny Hamlin	98.9	14.4	9.6	7.2	10.6	71	22	221	905
Kyle Busch	98.6	16.4	4.6	19.4	9.8	-4	12	85	869
Joey Logano	97.4	4.0	8.6	18.8	8.4	19	19	119	889
Chase Elliott	92.2	17.8	9.4	14.6	11.2	93	22	29	891
William Byron	85.8	5.0	21.6	18.0	18.4	59	17	68	738
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	81.8	15.4	12.8	21.4	13.2	7	17	42	891
Brad Keselowski	81.6	15.0	14.0	22.0	15.4	-27	23	31	838
Christopher Bell	81.4	15.0	14.7	16.7	15.0	15	25	34	568
Kevin Harvick	80.4	5.2	16.6	16.8	14.6	-82	11	35	891
Austin Dillon	79.3	14.0	12.2	17.8	16.2	3	20	53	893
Kyle Larson	78.5	15.0	15.8	11.8	16.8	13	19	1	742
Michael McDowell	78.2	26.2	21.0	9.4	18.0	74	26	6	907
Matt DiBenedetto	77.2	17.6	15.8	20.0	18.2	45	22	49	702
Alex Bowman	76.9	4.4	17.6	19.6	17.2	0	16	5	713
Ryan Blaney	76.5	14.8	12.4	21.0	15.6	3	4	19	695
Bubba Wallace	72.4	16.0	19.8	18.0	21.6	6	34	1	867
Kurt Busch	71.2	14.2	22.8	24.8	20.8	5	29	9	853
Cole Custer	69.7	18.3	18.7	26.0	18.7	-70	10	1	532
Martin Truex Jr	69.6	11.8	14.8	23.6	19.8	-29	42	14	859
Ryan Preece	68.4	23.4	18.4	22.4	19.8	-1	26	1	875
Erik Jones	67.0	22.0	23.6	23.6	22.0	-19	22	15	704
Tyler Reddick	65.1	27.0	25.3	27.8	20.8	108	17	1	736
Chris Buescher	64.2	19.0	24.0	19.4	22.0	10	7	1	704
Daniel Suarez	64.0	20.8	13.0	33.8	21.8	-8	7	19	445
Ryan Newman	63.5	14.6	23.0	20.4	22.0	-58	21	15	707
Justin Haley	62.1	33.5	31.0	7.0	28.5	0	8	1	336
Aric Almirola	61.7	6.4	21.0	22.6	21.6	-76	8	7	699
Ross Chastain	59.5	32.8	21.4	17.6	24.8	28	15	0	894
Corey LaJoie	59.4	27.8	24.8	12.4	25.6	-11	14	1	899
Josh Bilicki	41.8	38.0	30.5	31.0	30.5	-31	0	0	345
B.J. McLeod	40.3	37.3	33.5	27.0	31.0	-19	2	0	624
Joey Gase	40.2	35.5	33.5	25.3	31.8	-71	0	0	682
Quin Houff	35.6	33.5	36.0	32.0	33.0	-75	1	0	396

Betting Targets

I am not sure if betting “targets” is the right title this week. I am simply discussing betting options in reality and a few drivers that I believe deserve consideration. I highly doubt that I will place any H2H wagers this week because those bets are simply disadvantageous. Among the top-tier drivers, I like the value of Kyle Busch among the options for the favorites. Busch has been strong everywhere this season and was really strong at Daytona back in February. Denny Hamlin is obviously the most realistic option among the favorites but I just wish there were better odds for the driver of the FedEx Toyota.

In the intermediate-tier of drivers, William Byron and Austin Dillon are my favorite betting options. Byron’s success this season has saturated his overall value this week but I really expect him to be in the hunt for the victory if he can avoid the chaos. Byron is the defending winner of this event and finished 2nd to Brad Keselowski earlier this year at Talladega. Simply put, Byron is a top superspeedway talent that is still receiving 2nd-tier type odds. For Austin Dillon, the chances of him ending up on the hook are pretty high so perhaps avoid the #3 car in fantasy lineups. However, the car has the speed and the driver has the aggressiveness to win this race. There are few drivers that really have a knack for controlling the field behind them when they get out front and Dillon is one of those drivers. Therefore, Dillon should remain on everyone’s radar this week.

I understand the appetizing thought of cashing a huge winner this week. After all, superspeedway races offer that potential so I want to throw out some bottom-tier names that have the Michael McDowell type of underdog potential. Keep in mind, just because I don’t mention some names does not mean that there are no other options available. You can nearly make the argument for anyone this week but these are the drivers that I believe check off the right boxes for a potential play. Among the lottery style threats this week that I like this week include Justin Haley, Matt DiBenedetto, Cole Custer, and Ryan Preece. Haley is a tremendous superspeedway talent but has rarely had the equipment to display it in the Cup Series. Haley did win the rain-shortened Coke Zero Sugar 400 back in 2019. However, Kaulig Racing’s Cup Series program is really showing improvement and that significantly boosts Haley’s ceiling this week.

DiBenedetto and Custer are just two names that rarely get any attention but have a habit of being around at the end. Both drivers are ideal options for fantasy/match-ups if you are crazy enough to play them this week because they rarely put their cars in bad situations. Lastly, Ryan Preece is one of my favorite lottery targets this week. Preece has posted 90 plus ratings in each superspeedway race this year. While trends do not promise results, we may be able to find some reasonable prop bet value on Preece to post another quality finish!

Drivers to Fade

Again, I typically steer clear of fantasy and betting match-ups at the superspeedways. However, I know others that like to throw extra money at these races. So if you are looking specifically for drivers to fade, I would put Martin Truex Jr, Daniel Suarez, and Aric Almirola into that “fade” bucket. Suarez has simply been awful at Daytona with skill and luck. In short, Suarez has just a single Top 20 finish in 8 career starts and an average finishing position of 31.6. Aric Almirola is typically considered a strong superspeedway driver and I agree with that sentiment to some degree. However, Almirola is usually a boom or bust candidate with the latter being more frequent. Finally, Martin Truex is one of the popular names that can usually be avoided with confidence at the superspeedways. Truex has 32 starts at Daytona and just 5 Top 10 finishes which is semi-embarrassing.

Draftkings 2021 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

*Final*

William Byron +1300 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1400 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1400 (.75 unit)
Austin Dillon +2000 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2000 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +6600 (.25 unit)
Chase Briscoe +6600 (.25 unit)
Ryan Preece +8000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Tyler Reddick +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)