2021 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday May 30th, 2021. 6:00PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The greatest day in motorsports will convene on Sunday in celebration of Memorial Day weekend. The day will begin with the 105th running of the Indianapolis 500 in IndyCar as fans, bettors, and overall motorsports enthusiasts enjoy one of the greatest races in auto racing. Once the dust settles in Indianapolis, the Cup Series will take center stage in the twilight hours for the 62nd running of the Coca Cola 600 in NASCAR’s backyard at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Known as NASCAR’s longest race, the Coca Cola 600 is one of the marquee events in the sport and ultimately provides bettors an exciting finale to Sunday’s festivities.

NASCAR’s 2021 campaign has been anything short of mundane with 11 different winners through 14 races. Perhaps most surprising is the fact that last year’s dominant duo, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, are still among the drivers searching for their first victory of the season. Even reigning Cup Series Champion Chase Elliott needed some luck last week at Circuit of the Americas to capture his 1st victory of the season. Needless to say, the Cup Series has proven to be extremely competitive this season which means that we will have to consider numerous drivers that could potentially pull out a victory over the course of 600 miles.

The beauty of the Coca Cola 600 is that it takes a full effort from both driver and team to win this race. When the green flag waves, the track will be under the fading sun with relatively hot temperature but as the sun fades into the darkness; the track will undergo several changes before the checkered flag waves. Drivers will need to manage their equipment and stay on top of the changing surface while crew chiefs will be heavily relied upon to make effective changes during pit stops to have the speed at the end of the race. In the last few years, we have seen everything from dominating efforts from start to finish like Martin Truex’s victories in 2016 and 2019. We have also witnessed fuel mileage determine the outcome which allowed Austin Dillon to steal a victory in 2017 and just last year Brad Keselowski basically came out of nowhere in the final laps to steal a victory. Therefore, we have to keep an open mind for all competitors and their betting chances this Sunday!

Loop Data

If you have read my prior previews this week, I have spent time alluding to how I approach handicapping at Charlotte. Charlotte Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile track with relatively high banking and a lot of grip. Ultimately, speed is the name of the game at Charlotte and that is why I typically like to look at recent performance trends. However, this race in particular has that long-run effect. This race is notorious for producing long green flag runs which means we must keep in mind the teams/drivers that typically shine in those conditions. As a result, I have compiled loop data stats for different data sets this week. The initial data set contains ratings for the last 5 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway which is important because it also contains the last 3 Coca Cola 600 races. Next, I have also compiled loop data for all races on 1.5 mile surfaces using the 550HP (high downforce) rules package. Performance under this rules package must be given considerable credibility and that is why I believe both of these data sets provide value for handicapping purposes this week.

*Last 5 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway (oval)

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	116.8	13.8	8.0	4.0	7.8	99	209	294	1750
Chase Elliott	112.3	12.6	4.4	4.2	7.2	87	103	121	1749
Kyle Busch	107.0	7.2	14.6	13.4	12.4	27	225	478	1743
Alex Bowman	99.8	13.5	4.8	16.8	9.8	-48	90	223	1411
Kevin Harvick	99.6	17.0	12.6	13.8	12.6	51	148	226	1433
Ryan Blaney	99.0	17.2	8.2	12.8	10.4	34	45	4	1628
Kyle Larson	97.6	15.3	6.3	16.7	10.0	82	63	12	1052
Brad Keselowski	94.2	12.2	13.8	9.2	12.4	30	73	99	1748
Kurt Busch	91.2	10.0	9.0	14.0	9.8	26	34	54	1746
Denny Hamlin	91.1	13.2	16.6	11.2	14.6	79	102	75	1743
Tyler Reddick	87.9	9.0	12.5	11.5	11.5	-8	4	0	613
Joey Logano	84.8	10.4	14.4	14.0	13.2	-4	34	80	1747
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	84.2	17.0	15.8	11.4	14.6	50	16	1	1746
William Byron	83.3	8.3	18.3	20.3	16.0	-3	22	42	1151
Austin Dillon	77.6	8.4	16.8	21.4	16.8	-66	23	0	1613
Christopher Bell	77.1	13.5	12.5	15.5	14.5	-3	2	0	613
Aric Almirola	76.0	16.2	15.2	16.8	16.4	3	19	0	1749
Erik Jones	69.1	16.4	20.4	22.8	21.2	98	45	0	1370
Chris Buescher	67.8	18.2	21.2	17.2	19.8	20	12	0	1744
Daniel Suarez	64.4	19.0	26.6	19.2	21.0	-58	20	0	1741
Cole Custer	62.9	18.5	19.0	15.5	21.0	-25	1	0	613
Ryan Newman	62.3	16.0	19.6	27.2	21.2	-112	4	0	1395
Bubba Wallace	57.7	28.5	24.5	29.3	24.3	-36	3	0	1124
Matt DiBenedetto	55.5	24.8	27.2	26.4	25.0	1	6	16	1254
Michael McDowell	54.5	19.6	28.0	23.8	24.4	-87	18	1	1702
Ryan Preece	52.1	25.0	23.3	26.0	24.0	-3	0	1	953
Corey LaJoie	51.7	29.8	26.8	21.8	26.4	6	6	0	1740
Ross Chastain	46.9	27.0	27.7	27.3	27.7	23	5	0	935
Gray Gaulding	37.1	32.8	32.5	32.3	32.0	-49	0	0	1258
Quin Houff	37.1	34.7	31.7	32.0	32.7	-20	0	0	991
B.J. McLeod	34.7	35.0	32.6	32.4	33.2	16	3	0	1690
Timmy Hill	30.6	34.5	34.8	33.3	35.3	-3	5	0	1304
Joey Gase	27.8	38.3	37.3	36.0	37.3	-5	1	0	727

*Data reflects performance on 1.5 mile venues in 2021 (Homestead, Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Kansas)

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	132.6	14.5	4.8	6.5	3.0	43	246	509	1126
William Byron	112.0	11.0	9.3	6.5	6.8	36	86	129	1126
Denny Hamlin	104.8	7.0	8.0	7.8	7.8	46	49	81	1126
Brad Keselowski	104.1	5.5	10.0	12.3	9.0	3	81	146	1122
Martin Truex Jr	102.2	7.5	9.0	6.0	7.5	8	41	43	1126
Kyle Busch	101.9	16.5	11.3	4.8	9.5	71	46	20	1126
Ryan Blaney	99.6	14.3	10.3	14.0	8.8	18	61	26	1125
Kevin Harvick	91.3	4.0	17.3	9.3	13.3	5	17	0	1125
Alex Bowman	90.5	15.3	10.8	14.3	11.8	23	32	0	1124
Austin Dillon	87.7	13.3	13.8	10.0	12.3	33	11	0	1126
Chase Elliott	86.8	10.3	13.5	17.5	13.5	57	34	26	1021
Chris Buescher	85.9	15.8	14.8	12.0	13.8	-23	50	70	1126
Kurt Busch	84.4	12.8	20.0	20.3	15.3	-4	41	1	913
Matt DiBenedetto	81.5	23.0	15.3	14.8	13.0	-10	10	0	1124
Joey Logano	81.1	12.3	16.3	16.5	13.8	-49	9	19	1125
Christopher Bell	75.7	8.8	18.3	19.0	15.0	-23	27	0	1122
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	74.2	16.8	13.0	17.5	16.0	5	5	23	1117
Ryan Newman	73.4	19.5	19.0	13.5	18.5	-4	8	0	1125
Tyler Reddick	72.8	21.5	16.8	14.3	19.5	16	23	7	1123
Michael McDowell	70.9	8.0	11.0	13.8	18.0	-39	4	9	1124
Ross Chastain	67.9	24.5	21.8	17.0	18.8	42	4	0	1125
Daniel Suarez	64.0	22.3	11.8	17.3	19.5	-10	10	14	1123
Bubba Wallace	61.0	17.5	26.5	23.0	23.0	-18	14	2	1119
Cole Custer	59.3	16.8	14.8	22.5	20.0	-46	0	0	1123
Erik Jones	58.0	24.0	26.3	21.5	23.5	-5	10	0	1122
Aric Almirola	54.3	19.5	22.0	29.3	23.0	-19	0	0	1030
Ryan Preece	54.1	15.5	25.8	23.3	24.0	-36	5	0	1115
Chase Briscoe	52.5	24.3	27.8	20.5	25.0	-4	2	0	1123
Anthony Alfredo	48.9	27.0	15.8	24.5	25.8	-14	1	1	1121
Corey LaJoie	44.1	28.5	22.3	32.3	28.3	-35	29	0	923
Justin Haley	40.9	25.5	26.3	28.8	30.3	-43	9	0	1110
Garrett Smithley	35.6	31.7	32.7	31.7	32.3	4	0	0	781
B.J. McLeod	33.9	32.3	33.8	32.3	33.5	-21	0	0	1091
Cody Ware	33.6	31.0	34.0	32.8	33.5	-13	0	0	1093
James Davison	32.5	31.5	35.0	34.5	34.5	10	0	0	377
Quin Houff	30.7	35.8	34.3	34.5	34.0	-7	0	0	1084
Joey Gase	28.5	36.0	35.7	34.7	35.7	-3	0	0	821
Josh Bilicki	27.7	36.3	37.3	36.0	36.8	-8	0	0	1046
Timmy Hill	24.5	36.3	37.7	36.7	37.3	2	0	0	572

Friday’s Practice

The Cup Series hosted a lone practice session for the 2nd consecutive week on Friday. As you may be aware, practices are rare in the post-COVID era of NASCAR. NASCAR holds practices at new venues just as it did last week at Circuit of the Americas and also holds practices for the marquee events which is the case with Sunday’s Coca Cola 600. The good thing about Friday’s lone session is that it took place in the evening hours which could resemble Sunday’s track conditions pending the weather forecast. At the end of the 50 minute session, Austin Dillon found himself at the top of the leaderboard with a lap of 180.935mph.

Dillon’s fast lap came towards the end of the session when the team was making a mock qualifying run. However, I thought both Richard Childress Racing cars (Dillon and Tyler Reddick) looked strong on the stopwatch. In fact, we should probably address the elephant in the room. Chevrolet teams produced 8 of the 9 top speeds in practice. The only non-Chevy driver was Joey Logano with the 5th fastest lap. We have seen Chevrolet teams show speed all season and obviously the Hendrick Motorsports drivers have been the best of the group. While I am sure some people will lean towards the belief Chevy teams have an advantage, it was also pretty obvious those cars were trimmed out more than most other teams. While trimmed out (less downforce) is great for single lap speed, it does not always equate to great long-run speed. Therefore, I am not going to force a manufacturing narrative that I do not believe exists.

I do want to rattle off some quick observations before I dive into outright betting targets and fades. For starters, Kyle Larson looked terrific in practice. Larson has produced a sizable gap against the competition at the 1.5 mile venues which is evident in the data metrics above. On Friday, Larson led all drivers with the fastest 5, 10, and 15 lap averages. Aside from Larson, I was mostly impressed with William Byron, Joey Logano, and Tyler Reddick as the drivers that stood out on raw lap data. Personally, I had Byron pegged as a dark horse going into the weekend and his performance in practice only solidified that belief.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, there were a few guys that struggled that should be noted as well. Among those was the #48 of Alex Bowman. Despite Hendrick Motorsports and Chevrolet teams speed, Bowman struggled severely with handling issues throughout the session despite attempting several changes. The team never got the car where they needed and it is obvious major changes will be made before impound qualifying on Saturday. A couple of additional drivers that caught my eye in a bad way were Brad Keselowski and Bubba Wallace. I’ve made reference to Wallace’s disappointing season on a few occasions now and I’m still surprised that this #23 team is not showing better speed with the JGR alliance. Meanwhile, the defending winner of the Coca Cola 600 did not show any speed in practices. I did not hear anything on the broadcast and find any reports as to what may have been taking place with the #2 car. I just know the stopwatch was consistently waiting for Keselowski to cross the line.

Betting Targets

I would not discourage anyone from placing Martin Truex Jr at the top of their betting list this week. Truex is having an excellent season and leads the Cup Series with 3 victories in 2021. Despite the fact the Coca Cola 600 is tailor made for Martin Truex’s driving style and the fact Truex has won 3 of the last 8 races at Charlotte (oval), I still have Kyle Larson listed as the outright favorite in my book. When you combine all the handicapping factors I take into consideration, Larson has a clear advantage. The downside is that things can go south over the course of 600 miles but if Larson can stay out of trouble; it would not surprise me to see him run away with this race. I would also advise everyone to keep their eye on Chase Elliott. I am not betting Elliott because I don’t like his odds but I do believe the #9 will be in the hunt on Sunday.

If you are new to my betting picks, I have played a conservative strategy in 2021 on win/futures bets. For Sunday’s Coca Cola 600, I must admit that there are some appetizing betting options in the intermediate odds range. Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin are both listed near 10-1 odds which screams value. Hamlin has simply run too good this season to not be given legitimate betting consideration with that type of value. Meanwhile, I am also enticed by guys like William Byron and Tyler Reddick at longer odds. I know these drivers may seem like picks derived from practice observations but that is not accurate. While both drivers did have strong practice speed, Byron has been fantastic all season especially under this package. Reddick likely holds more H2H value but we can’t rule out the long shot potential at 40-1 odds. The RCR cars have been showing improved speed in each of the last few weeks and Reddick has been running upfront rather consistently.

For H2H match-ups and prop bets, William Byron remains my favorite option because I think he is far better than the drivers within his odds range. Since I mentioned Byron multiple times already, I will move on to names that I have not previously mentioned that I believe yield sharp value. Two drivers that you can target in less polarizing match-ups include Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain. Both drivers are trending in the right direction without notice. Chastain has posted top 15 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races including a season-best 4th at COTA last week. The #42 team has shown solid speed on the 1.5 mile surfaces despite being an afterthought to oddsmakers. Likewise, Daniel Suarez is in a similar situation. Suarez has benefited tremendously from moving over to the startup team at Trackhouse Racing. Suarez has shown some promising moments this season on the dirt at Bristol and then with an 11th place result recently at Kansas. I was thoroughly impressed with the speed from the #99 car in practice and since Suarez is typically labeled a bottom-tier driver; I will gladly target him in any low-tier match-ups or prop opportunities.

Drivers to Fade

I mentioned earlier that Alex Bowman and the #48 team struggled tremendously in practice. While I don’t encourage making betting selections solely on practice observations, it’s hard to keep Bowman off the radar this week based on their performance on Friday. It’s also worth mentioning that Bowman has finished outside the top 15 in 7 of 9 career starts at Charlotte. Other fade candidates that have numerous indicators that we can pivot against include Bubba Wallace, Aric Almirola, and Joey Logano. Logano offers the sharper fade value. I mentioned that Logano looked strong in practices but I am not letting that deter me from the fact the #22 team has been really bad under this rules package. Meanwhile, I am not going to elaborate on Wallace and Almirola for fade reasons. Simply put, they are both high percentage fade candidates.

Draftkings 2021 Coca Cola 600 Optimal Lineup

2021 Coca Cola 600 Betting Picks

*Final

Kyle Larson +600 (1.5 units)
Denny Hamlin +1000 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1400 (.75 unit)
Tyler Reddick +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -110 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Ross Chastain -110 over Cole Custer (3 units)
Kyle Busch -130 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +250 wins Group E (Custer, McDowell, Newman)(1 unit)
Austin Dillon +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)