2021 Call 811 Before You Dig 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 13th, 2021. 5:30PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

On Saturday, the Xfinity Series will have the luxury of playing the lead-off role for this weekend’s festivities at Phoenix Raceway. Just nearly 4 months ago, Austin Cindric captured the biggest win of his career at Phoenix to capture the 2020 Xfinity Series Championship. For Saturday’s Call 811 Before You Dig 200, Xfinity Series teams will not be competing directly for a championship. However, they will be chasing a potential playoff bid while attempting to find the best speed in effort to return in November for a chance to fight for a championship. As we prepare for racing in the Valley of the Sun, let’s take a look at the best betting opportunities with our 2021 Call 811 Before You Dig 200 race picks!

Unlike the past few races, we do not have any of the popular Cup Series drivers participating in Saturday’s race. Part-time driver Ty Gibbs returns to the #54 following his amazing victory in his 1st start back at Daytona’s road course. Meanwhile, the rest of the field is compiled on regular Xfinity Series’ drivers. Obviously on the heels of Cindric’s victory in November, the #22 is currently listed as the overall betting favorite once the green flag waves. However, I would argue that the flat 1-mile tri-oval at Phoenix requires just as much from the team’s chassis/setup combinations as it does from the driver. Therefore, don’t be surprised if we see a few surprises on Saturday if certain teams hit or miss their setups.

Betting Strategy

I don’t think bettors can solely rely on any single driver this week for the win. While we know some of the names that should be in contention, there are a lot of variables in this race. For example, long-run speed is often the premium but we saw both 2020 races impacted by late cautions. So far this season, the Xfinity Series has been difficult to handicap. There are legitimately 9-10 really good drivers that are in good equipment that could strike on any given week. Given the recent conservative betting odds and limited match-ups in the Xfinity Series, there has not been enough options to provide value. I think the strategy remains conservative this week unless we see more options in the form of match-ups. With that being said, don’t be afraid to take a low-risk gamble on 1-2 dark horses because Phoenix is the type of setup that could produce a relatively surprising winner that few expected.

Betting Targets

Austin Cindric is the overall betting favorite this week at near 3-1 odds. However, Justin Allgaier is within the same range of betting odds for justifiable reasons. Phoenix and Richmond have been Allgaier’s best tracks throughout his career and they are relatively similar to each other in the form of shorter flat layouts. In 21 Xfinity Series starts, Allgaier has 2 victories and 8 top 5 finishes. In terms of the drivers competing on Saturday from the Xfinity Series regulars’, Allgaier owns the highest driver rating over the last 3 races at Phoenix. As a result, the #7 deserves to be among the favorites this week with no other clear favorites in the field outside of Cindric.

Outside of Cindric and Allgaier, Noah Gragson is my top pick to challenge the leaders at the front of the field. Gragson has improved with every start at Phoenix which peaked with a runner-up finish in last year’s finale. In fact, Gragson is currently listed in the some odds category (+900) as AJ Allmendinger, Harrison Burton, Ty Gibbs, and Brandon Jones. Personally, I believe that is a mistake from odds-makers as Gragson has considerable more value than those drivers. I’m a huge fan of Ty Gibbs but this race at Phoenix does not setup that same All-Star performance potential as it did at Daytona’s road course and remember I picked Gibbs at the road course so it’s not like I am pulling against him.

For dark horses and H2H targets, there are a few drivers that deserve more respect. For a true dark horse, I believe bettors need to start paying serious attention to Justin Haley. Kaulig Racing cars appear to have found even more speed from the limited races we have been able to witness in 2021. Kaulig Racing cars were strong at all the shorter layouts in 2020 but largely struggled at the bigger speedways. With more improvement shown on the bigger tracks, I am wondering if they will also translate to better performance at the shorter layouts as well. Haley has always been an extremely underrated talent behind the wheel and he has posted exceptional performances at the superspeedways and short tracks. Just look back to last year’s opening race at Richmond for example. Simply put at 20-1 odds and higher, Haley is the best value on the board in the realm of dark horses.

I’m sure Daniel Hemric deserves some dark horse potential. Hemric had yet another runner-up finish last week at Las Vegas and it is obvious he is going to finally win a race this year with Joe Gibbs Racing. However, Hemric just does not pull-through enough (or ever) to deserve his current betting odds. With that said, he has shown promising results in the past at Phoenix. Meanwhile, the H2H target that is high on my list this week revolves around the #1 of Michael Annett. Despite struggling in his early career at Phoenix, Annett has posted 97.0 or higher average ratings in 3 of his last 4 starts at Phoenix including a 4th place finish last November. Considering the drivers that share the same win/futures odds as Annett which includes Jeb Burton, Brett Moffitt, and Josh Better; I would love to see Annett paired in match-ups against any of those drivers. Either way, I believe the #1 provides sharp H2H value this week.

Drivers to Fade

For fade considerations this week, I’m not sure I would call either of these drivers heavy fades but would label them both as overvalued. Overvalued drivers that standout to me include both AJ Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs. I expect Gibbs to run relatively well but if people are suggesting he will compete for another win this week which is implied by his betting odds; I personally highly doubt that will happen and would much rather take more experienced drivers that are getting the exact same odds this week like Harrison Burton or Noah Gragson if given the option in match-ups. Meanwhile, AJ Allmendinger is currently listed as the 3rd overall favorite behind Cindric and Allgaier. I know Allmendinger is coming off a win at Las Vegas but this specific style of layout has troubled the former Cup Series veteran throughout his career. Phoenix is not the type of track that favors experience but rather the flat style of driving that involves rolling/rotating the corners. I don’t believe Allmendinger’s experience will help him this week and would not be surprised if he somewhat struggles based on current expectations.

Draftkings Call 811 Before You Dig 200 Optimal Lineup

2021 Call 811 Before You Dig 200 Betting Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +300 (1.5 units)
Noah Gragson +900 (.75 unit)
Justin Haley +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Michael Annett -110 over Josh Berry (3 units)
Brandon Jones -110 over Ty Gibbs (3 units)
Noah Gragson -110 over AJ Allmendinger (3 units)
Justin Haley +650 finishes Top 3 (1 unit) *Odds courtesy of Bovada!