2021 Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 10th, 2021. 8:00PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

For the first time this season, NASCAR’s Cup Series will go under the lights for Saturday night racing at Martinsville Speedway with the running of the Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500. Following a historic event two weeks ago on the dirt at Bristol, the Cup Series will keep the intensity with short-track racing at the infamous half-mile paperclip. With Joey Logano’s most recent victory at Bristol, the Cup Series has now produced 7 different winners through the opening 7 races of the season. In NASCAR’s modern era, there have only been two seasons that produced 8 different winners at the start of the season (2000 & 2003). Therefore, it will be interesting to see if the streak of different winners stays intact following 500 laps at Martinsville!

Last November, Chase Elliott won the most recent stop at Martinsville in the Xfinity 500. Elliott ultimately dominated the event by leading 236 laps and the victory secured his place in the Championship 4 at Phoenix. As everyone knows, Elliott would win the championship one week later at Phoenix but a big part of that championship was the performance at Martinsville. Elliott has experienced a sluggish start to the 2021 season and the team is still searching for their first victory. Aside from the runner-up finish at Daytona, Elliott’s only other finish inside the Top 10 was a 5th place result at Phoenix. While I’m sure a win is the goal this week, Elliott and the #9 team really need to post a quality effort to get their performance on steady ground.

Though Elliott is listed among the top favorites this week, I really believe this race will boil down to Martin Truex Jr and the Team Penske cars. NASCAR’s Cup Series will be utilizing the 750HP package which was used at all short-tracks last season. It is the same package that we saw at Phoenix where Truex earned his 1st victory in the Valley of the Sun. At Martinsville, Truex has been phenomenal in recent years with victories in 2 of the last 3 races. Truex leads all drivers over the last 5 races in the most laps led (743) and fastest laps posted (345). Not only is the win at Phoenix important but Truex was among the most dominant cars at Bristol just two weeks ago under this same package. While I understand the style of racing from the dirt is completely different, we can’t deny the speed the #19 team has shown under this package.

Likewise, the same can be said for the Team Penske cars. Brad Keselowski was the most dominant driver under the 750 HP package in 2020 on traditional ovals. Keselowski won 3 times at Bristol, New Hampshire, and Richmond. It is also worth mentioning Keselowski is a two-time winner at Martinsville which includes one of the most dominating performances in recent memory in the 2019 spring race. In that race, Keselowski led 446 of 500 laps en route to victory. Keselowski also owns a relatively lucrative 3.8 average finishing position over the last 10 starts at Martinsville which is easily the best among active drivers. Going into Saturday night’s event, I have to elevate all of the Team Penske cars for their performance under this package. In fact if we just look at both Martinsville races from 2020, Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney all finished in the top 5 in each race which is fairly remarkable for a 3-car team. Logano is a former winner from 2018 and Blaney has been really strong in recent trips which includes two runner-up finishes last season. Needless to say, I expect all 3 of those cars will be extremely strong again this Saturday.

Martinsville Loop Data

Our loop data this week consists of an aggregate compilation of the last 5 races at Martinsville Speedway. There are no true surprises towards the top of the data metrics based on the introduction and descriptions provided above. I would mention that Denny Hamlin deserves to be in the conversation this week as well. Hamlin has the most wins (5) at Martinsville among active drivers and has been the most consistent driver in the Cup Series this season with 6 top 5 finishes in 7 races. Despite 0 wins, Hamlin has a relatively large points lead and if his current performance continues; the wins will come.

Perhaps one of the more shocking standouts is the measly 72.5 rating posted by Kyle Larson. Admittedly, Larson has been on my “fade” radar all week because I’m well aware of his struggles at Martinsville and our loop data stats definitely support that narrative. Obviously, Larson is the breakout star in the Cup Series thus far in 2021 as he is showing everyone what he can do in quality equipment. With that being said, Larson does have a career best 3rd place finish at Martinsville stemming from 2016. Some may argue that he is performing much better than historical trends would indicate and I would agree with that statement. However, Larson has still only cracked the top 15 in 3 of 12 career starts at Martinsville which means this could be the perfect opportunity to pivot against his 2021 success this season.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	118.4	10.2	6	7	5.6	37	345	743	2499
Joey Logano	115.9	6.2	4.8	7	5.2	-15	156	567	2500
Brad Keselowski	110.8	6.4	7.6	3.2	8.2	74	161	495	2500
Chase Elliott	110.5	9.4	11.4	10.2	9.6	78	249	286	2445
Ryan Blaney	107.8	7.6	6.6	6.6	8.2	43	155	70	2500
Kyle Busch	98.6	8.6	10	9.8	9.6	1	120	105	2499
Denny Hamlin	98.5	5	8.4	9.2	9.4	39	170	103	2497
Kurt Busch	95.8	12.8	11	7.6	10	54	44	23	2500
Kevin Harvick	92.0	10.8	14	11	11.4	1	64	0	2499
Aric Almirola	85.6	6.6	11.8	19.4	13	-62	87	19	2339
Alex Bowman	80.1	12	15.2	14.6	14.4	-16	43	1	2494
William Byron	77.4	16.8	14	21.2	16.6	27	71	0	2302
Ryan Newman	76.0	21.6	13.4	14.2	15.4	-2	37	0	2498
Kyle Larson	72.5	9.7	18.7	21.3	16.7	-37	5	6	1393
Matt DiBenedetto	71.3	18	16	17.8	17.6	-17	12	0	2451
Erik Jones	69.2	15.8	17.8	21.6	20	-24	17	0	2481
Daniel Suarez	66.3	18.4	18.8	20.8	19.6	-23	12	0	2479
Tyler Reddick	66.3	15.5	16.5	20	18	-21	6	0	997
Chris Buescher	64.2	19.4	21.4	19.4	20.2	-18	10	0	2145
Austin Dillon	63.6	22.6	22.4	24.6	21.6	-27	61	0	2387
Cole Custer	63.6	21	21	21	21	-18	11	0	994
Bubba Wallace	63.2	28.8	19.6	19.2	20.6	52	23	0	2487
Christopher Bell	61.0	21.5	25.5	21.5	22.5	5	0	0	994
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	60.5	18.6	21.6	20	21.2	-14	11	0	2494
Ryan Preece	59.4	21.5	23.5	20	21.25	-7	3	0	1995
Corey LaJoie	52.1	29.75	22.5	23.5	23	-31	1	11	1986
Michael McDowell	50.3	20.2	25	24.2	25.4	-40	16	0	2484
Ross Chastain	39.5	28.3	31.3	30.7	31.7	-12	21	0	1351
Timmy Hill	31.0	37.25	36	35	35.75	-10	8	0	1418
Joey Gase	30.8	35	36	34.7	36	8	11	0	1378
Quin Houff	27.6	34.5	35.5	33.5	35.5	-3	2	0	963
Garrett Smithley	27.5	35	37.7	35.7	37	1	2	0	1037

Betting Targets

In terms of win (futures) bets, there is a logjam at the top of the odds list. If I had to choose a single driver to place my money on, Martin Truex gets the nod among the favorites. Personally, I was anxiously anticipating Ryan Blaney’s odds this week but was severely disappointed that he has been listed at less than 8-1 odds for most of the week. I am expecting some better line movement closer to race time on a few drivers this week. Currently, Blaney and Joey Logano are listed as the two favorites in the 8-1 odds range which are actually better than the likes of Truex, Elliott, Keselowski, and Hamlin. If the odds on both drivers get better closer to start time, I think they deserve some extra attention.

As usual with the 2021 season, our best value will likely come in H2H formats. A few of the drivers that I believe will yield the sharpest value in H2H formats include Alex Bowman and Aric Almirola. Almirola is probably the sharpest pick out of the two because his numbers/stats at Martinsville are misleading. Almirola has posted a 20.2 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Martinsville but has performed extremely well over the last 6 races since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. Even in those 6 races, Almirola has finishes of 33rd and 37th which stemmed from mechanical (battery) issues and a wreck with Kyle Busch. In nearly the last 4 races, Almirola has produced borderline top 5 speed but has rarely got the finishes to show for it. Due to the competition that Almirola has been paired against in recent weeks, this should be a strong play on the #10 car this week.

For Alex Bowman, I am actually going to throw Bowman and teammate William Byron into the same bucket this week. Both drivers have significantly improved their short-track skills in a short time in the Cup Series. Bowman posted a pair of 6th place results in both 2020 races at the paper-clip and just continues to show improvement. William Byron nearly won the First Data 500 in the fall of 2019 at Martinsville. There were times where he was faster than Martin Truex in the final stage but ultimately came up just one spot short. Byron posted an 8th place finish in this race last year and was a victim of unfortunate circumstances in the fall last November. The #24 team has probably been the most improved “team” this season with Rudy Fugle on top of the box which has produced finishes of 1st, 8th, 8th, 8th, and 6th over the last 5 races. With all-around better performance, this should be a good opportunity for Byron to score another quality performance at a track where his skill set is largely undervalued.

Drivers to Fade

My biggest fade this week surrounds the #5 of Kyle Larson. I know that fade option will not be popular because Larson has been stout all season. However, I feel like it is the right play. I mentioned in the loop data stats above that Larson’s history includes top 15 finishes in just 3 of 12 career Martinsville starts. For the most part, the struggles have not been equipment related or misfortune. Larson simply struggles at Martinsville because it does not fit his style of driving cars deep into the corners and muscling off the corner. In fact, that is the exact opposite of what you need to do at Martinsville. Larson has also been very vocal about his tendency to burn-up the rear tires at Martinsville as a result of his driving style and that is the biggest challenge I see for the driver of the #5 this week. Martinsville is vastly underrated as a long-run speed track and it is extremely critical to salvage tires. I just don’t think that combination favors Larson and since he is still listed among the favorites this week; I will be fading the #5 with priority.

If you can find value in fading Austin Dillon or Tyler Reddick, I would also mention both of those drivers in the “fade” conversation as well. Dillon has posted pathetic results at Martinsville over the last several races. In fact, he has just one stage point (Stage 1 – 10th place finish in 2019) in the last 6 races at the paper-clip which basically sums up Dillon’s recent performances. Tyler Reddick is another driver that has yielded little success at Martinsville despite just two prior starts. Like Larson, I think Reddick is a stylistic fade as his skill set simply does not correlate to what is needed from the driver’s seat at Martinsville. Lastly, I am going to keep Kyle Busch towards the top of my fade list this week. Busch has a 6.8 average finishing position over the last 10 starts which is 2nd to Brad Keselowski among active drivers. However, Rowdy’s last 3 performances have been truly forgettable. We have seen some improvement from the #18 team this season but none of that improvement has included the 750HP package that will be utilized this week.

Draftkings Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Optimal Lineup

2021 Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +500 (1.5 units)
Ryan Blaney +800 (1 unit)
William Byron +2000 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +2500 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +8000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Aric Almirola +140 over Christopher Bell (3 units)
Bubba Wallace -110 over Austin Dillon (3 units)
Matt DiBenedetto -110 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Joey Logano -130 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Matt DiBenedetto +300 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)