2021 BL Transport 170 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday June 5th, 1:00PM (EST) at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will make the solo trip to Lexington, Ohio on Saturday for the running of the BL Transport 170 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. Both Xfinity and Cup Series teams will be participating at road courses this weekend. While the Cup Series will return to Sonoma Raceway for the first time in two years, the Xfinity Series remains the only touring series that competes at Mid-Ohio. Similar to the Cup Series brief hiatus at Sonoma due to COVID-19 last season, the Xfinity Series also did not compete at Mid-Ohio in 2020 which means this Saturday’s return to Lexington will be the first event in two years for current teams and drivers.

Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course is not an overly challenging road course when compared to the likes of Circuit of the Americas that the series just recently visited two weeks ago. However, I do believe we must consider the experience factor this week especially in the realm of H2H match-ups. There will be a few drivers making their first starts at Mid-Ohio this week and other drivers with very limited experience at this particular venue. Through prior road course races this season and even going back to last year; I believe we have a pretty strong baseline of expectations among the drivers that are the superior road course talents. Now it is about expanding and pivoting from those expectations for this week’s picks.

Without question, Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger are the top two talents at road course venues. Cindric captured a victory in the most recent event held at Mid-Ohio in the BL Transport 170 in 2019 and has captured 4 of his 11 career victories at road courses. Meanwhile, everybody is also familiar with Allmendinger’s road course background and skill set. Allmendinger won the inaugural race at Mid-Ohio in 2013 and despite only recently jumping into full-time Xfinity Series competition; Allmendinger has visited victory lane 6 times in the Xfinity Series and 4 of those wins have taken place on road course layouts. Therefore, we know that Cindric and Allmendinger deserve to be the favorites this week. The question is who do we prefer between Cindric and Allmendinger? Another important question is there any other drivers that could sneak into the picture on Saturday to battle for the victory?

Betting and Handicapping Strategy

From a handicapping standpoint, I am not going to display analytical metrics this week. I usually compile loop data statistics for one or multiple data sets each week to analyze for handicapping purposes that is most relevant to each track. I thought about using the Xfinity Series’ combined results from Daytona’s RC and Circuit of the Americas this season but I normally like to have larger sample sizes for analytical data. Furthermore, sometimes analytics is not the best handicapping approach and I feel that may be the case this Saturday.

For this week’s return to Mid-Ohio, I think we can take into account several factors that statistics will not portray. For starters, there will be drivers in the field with minimal experience at Mid-Ohio and others with a decent amount of experience which cannot be overlooked as we return to an event schedule that excludes practice and qualifying sessions. Additionally, don’t overlook the equipment factor this week. I mention equipment quite often at the intermediate speedways where aerodynamics and horsepower are extremely important. At road courses, I rarely mention the equipment factor but Mid-Ohio produces a tremendous amount of speed for a flat 2.258 mile (13 turn) venue. If you look through the history books at Mid-Ohio, the top performing teams have consistently compiled the overwhelming portion of the top finishing positions year after year. As a result, we have to keep those things in mind for this week’s predictions.

For betting purposes, the wins/future market looks relatively grim but perhaps that is expected with the heavy favorites in Allmendinger and Cindric. Unless we see improvement in betting odds, I will approach win bets conservatively. However, I am hopeful we will have strong value in H2H match-ups this week. I have various drivers that I will be looking to either target or fade this week so I am hoping for several H2H options. In the last two weeks, oddsmakers have released minimal matchups for the Xfinity Series races which has been frustrating. However, I believe the reason for the lack of variety was due to practice and qualifying sessions taking place before the race which caused odds to be pulled off the board frequently. Without practices or qualifying this week, I am hoping we see a better variety of matchups. If that happens, I may attack aggressively if I get the match-ups I am expecting.

Betting Targets

Among the top two favorites, I am favoring AJ Allmendinger over Cindric. Both drivers have prior victories at Mid-Ohio but I believe Allmendinger has looked the best on the road courses this year from a performance standpoint. Simply put, both guys have great upside. I just favor Allmendinger by a razor thin margin if forced to pick between the two drivers. Aside from the favorites already discussed, Justin Allgaier is the driver that I believe could play the spoiler role and provides our sharpest H2H value. Allgaier has a good amount of experience at Mid-Ohio and is often forgotten as a strong road course talent. Allgaier has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks. After recording his 2nd win of the year at Darlington, Allgaier recorded back to back 3rd place finishes at Dover and Circuit of the Americas despite rough conditions. I believe this is another excellent spot for the #7 team based on performance trends and Allgaier’s skill set to potentially deliver another high quality finish.

Another pair of drivers that are likely falling under the radar this week in the realm of matchups include the likes of Harrison Burton and Jeb Burton. I am not sure what it is about the Burtons that makes them good road course drivers but both have performed really well on road course layouts throughout their careers. Harrison Burton has finished 6th in each of the road course events this season and owns one of the highest average running position marks (7th) among all drivers from those two races. Jeb Burton posted a 5th place result back at Daytona’s RC and then finished 10th at COTA despite a star studded field. The only downside to Jeb Burton’s value this week is that he has not competed at Mid-Ohio so the experience factor is a slight concern. Still, Jeb is usually listed in lower tier matchups which could still yield value.

I would also throw a real quick note towards guys like Myatt Snider, Brett Moffitt, and Daniel Hemric for H2H and fantasy purposes. I throw Hemric’s name into the mix mainly for fantasy purposes because he will be starting towards the rear of the field. Still, keep in mind that Hemric has an excellent track record at Mid-Ohio with prior finishes of 2nd and 3rd with Richard Childress Racing. Snider and Moffitt will also be starting towards the back due to last week’s troubles at Charlotte. I really like Moffitt as an undervalued driver that shines at road courses. Moffitt is not in the greatest equipment but seems to always overachieve at the road course and short track venues. Therefore if we can find a bottom-tier match-up, Moffitt may be worth the look for matchup purposes. In fantasy, Moffitt may provide one of the better value options on the board.

Drivers to Fade

I posted a tweet last week that Ty Gibbs may be the most outstanding young talent that I have ever seen and I don’t think people understand how big of a compliment that is considering I have watched this sport for more than 3 decades. Gibbs burst onto the scene with an amazing victory at Daytona’s RC earlier this year and visited victory lane for just the 2nd time last week at Charlotte. Based on timing, this is the perfect spot to fade the young driver as expectations are getting too lofty. Remember Gibbs victory at Daytona was surprising but not completely unforeseen.

If you recall, I had Gibbs on my betting card that week because of his performance in ARCA at Daytona’s road course. Gibbs had enough seat time at Daytona to translate positively towards his Xfinity Series’ drive. Fast forward to this Saturday and I don’t think the situation is most favorable for the 18 year old driver considering he has never competed at Mid-Ohio. Despite the experience factor, Gibbs is still listed among the betting favorites and while I understand he is an incredible talent; I can’t justify the betting odds this week. I believe we can extract value from fading the #54 based on inexperience at both track and road courses in general. Especially when you consider this will be a relatively short race, I just think we have better value on the opposing side of the #54 team this week.

A few other guys that seem to always struggle at the road course venues include the likes of Michael Annett, Noah Gragson, and Brandon Jones. Gragson has shown potential at the road courses but rarely captures the finishes to showcase the potential. The #9 team completely missed the setup at COTA which turned into a rather disastrous weekend. Without practices this week, I would almost gamble on the fact that the team could miss the setup badly again. Either way Gragson is not an overly impressive road course talent and while he does have a 5th place result in his only Mid-Ohio start, I would bet against that outcome repeating itself on Saturday based on the law of large numbers. Lastly, Brandon Jones is one of those drivers that is always on my fade list at the road course venues. In respect, Jones has posted finishes better than his average running position on a few occasions just as we saw at Daytona’s RC in February. Still, he is a solid fade if we can find the right match-ups with an average running position outside the top 15 in the last 3 Xfinity Series races on road course layouts.

Draftkings BL Transport 170 Optimal Lineup

2021 BL Transport 170 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +375 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +850 (1 unit)

Match-ups and Props

AJ Allmendinger -105 over Ty Gibbs (3 units)
Jeb Burton -115 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Harrison Burton +650 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Jeb Burton +2000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)