2021 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 18th, 2021. 7:30PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The final race in the opening round of the Cup Series playoffs will condense upon the World’s Fastest Half-Mile on Saturday with the prestigious running of the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Unlike the dirt race which debuted for the first time at Bristol back in March, Cup Series will return to the half-mile concrete surface for high stakes short track racing with playoff implications on the line. Several of the Cup Series’ popular drivers like William Byron, Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, and even Kyle Busch are among those in jeopardy of elimination which should bring some extra drama to one of the most exciting races of the season!

From a handicapping standpoint, Bristol Motor Speedway has not exactly been easy to handicap. Though the top drivers typically emerge at the front in Thunder Valley, there have been 5 different winners within the last 5 races. If we stretch the history back a little further, Kyle Busch’s accomplishments come into better scope. Busch has won 3 of the last 7 races at Bristol and is tied for 3rd for the most all-time victories with 8 career wins. Kurt Busch is the only other driver within the same neighborhood as Rowdy. The elder Busch has amassed 6 victories in Thunder Valley with his most recent win coming in the 2018 Bristol Night Race. Further down the pecking order, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski each have 3 Bristol wins to their resume. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano both have two wins each at Bristol. Oddly enough, there are no other former winners in the field outside of that very select group of talent.

Personally, I would not be surprised to see a first-time Bristol winner this Saturday especially when you consider the likes of Martin Truex, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott are all among the group of drivers trying to achieve that first victory. With that being said, our betting focus should remain slightly conservative in terms of futures (win) bets. As I alluded to earlier, the winners of these Bristol races are not always the perceivable favorites. From being around this handicapping game for a while, Bristol is one of those tricky venues where you really need to focus on H2H bets to provide the bulk of your betting value. Therefore, my win bets this week will be relatively conservative so we are not overextended with overall risk.

Loop Data for Bristol

The good news for bettors is that Bristol is truly a one of a kind venue. As a result, it takes an acquired skill set to produce fast laps. Some drivers are able to figure it out rather quickly whereas others slowly improve over time. Either way, I believe our most useful observable data is to take a look at recent performance trends at Bristol Motor Speedway. Unlike other venues where I would put heavier emphasis on rules package performance, I think we can stick strictly to prior races at Bristol this week. As a result, I have compiled loop data averages for the past 5 races at Bristol Motor Speedway to construct our baseline for expectations this Saturday.

Despite not having any wins at Bristol, Chase Elliott owns the top spot with an average driver rating of 112.7. Elliott has actually produced numerous strong performances but has rarely got to finish to display those performances. Elliott dominated the spring race at Bristol in 2020 but got tangled up with Joey Logano in the final stage. Still, Elliott produces some sharp value this week compared to obvious favorites like Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, and Kyle Larson. In terms of loop data, I don’t think there are many huge surprises. Ryan Blaney clocks-in with an average triple digit rating and Bristol happens to be the site of his 1st career Xfinity Series victory. Judging by the semi-breakout season Blaney has produced, perhaps we should keep him on the radar this week.

One thing I would like to point out which may be slightly different than most loop data observations is the fact I pay closer attention to the “fastest laps” category when handicapping Bristol. Usually that category is more of a fantasy racing tool. However, the fastest laps category can be a really useful observation for Bristol to determine who is consistently running fast laps because it is often someone that is not the leader of the race. If you pay close attention to the fastest laps results, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Chase Elliott are your top 3 drivers. Now I would be hesitant of betting Harvick this week due to the 2021 performance trends but we cannot deny he has produced at Bristol in historical terms.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	112.7	4.2	4.8	9.6	5.0	7	169	294	2499
Kyle Busch	108.7	13.4	7.0	6.2	10.4	111	231	360	2497
Joey Logano	103.1	8.4	6.0	11.0	8.6	-5	135	243	2495
Ryan Blaney	100.6	8.6	14.4	14.8	11.2	21	135	339	2196
Kevin Harvick	99.5	7.8	15.8	14.8	13.8	24	255	262	2244
Brad Keselowski	97.6	7.6	10.4	14.4	10.2	-17	127	328	2410
Kurt Busch	95.9	13.0	9.4	6.8	11.4	22	82	33	2497
Kyle Larson	95.2	6.3	12.3	9.0	11.3	-17	104	79	1499
Denny Hamlin	92.1	6.0	14.0	11.6	11.4	27	84	218	2497
Erik Jones	90.9	12.4	9.8	11.8	12.0	31	115	33	2492
Martin Truex Jr	86.2	10.2	17.4	20.8	13.8	-25	128	52	2424
Matt DiBenedetto	77.8	16.4	20.2	17.2	16.2	-7	60	104	2449
Christopher Bell	77.3	26.5	18.5	18.5	15.0	24	16	1	987
Alex Bowman	74.7	13.0	19.2	19.8	18.6	-19	41	0	2220
Aric Almirola	74.3	6.2	20.2	26.2	18.6	-41	61	3	1883
Ryan Newman	72.9	18.2	13.6	14.4	16.8	-38	6	1	2495
Austin Dillon	72.6	15.4	18.2	15.8	17.8	-19	11	0	2385
Daniel Suarez	70.0	25.0	14.8	15.6	19.2	29	31	0	2493
Tyler Reddick	69.6	19.0	24.5	20.0	20.5	-2	19	0	728
Chris Buescher	67.9	24.8	13.4	17.8	17.4	-1	16	0	2489
William Byron	66.8	11.2	18.0	21.2	19.0	22	32	0	2224
Ryan Preece	59.9	27.0	24.0	16.0	22.8	39	2	0	1992
Bubba Wallace	58.4	28.0	22.0	20.8	21.8	-2	8	0	1997
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	55.0	16.6	29.4	32.8	27.0	-6	45	0	1537
Cole Custer	51.4	17.0	28.0	29.0	25.0	-11	0	0	725
Michael McDowell	50.0	25.6	26.8	25.2	26.4	-43	1	0	1869
Ross Chastain	45.6	37.0	29.3	27.0	28.7	16	2	0	1473
Corey LaJoie	43.7	30.0	24.6	31.4	28.2	-47	1	0	1830
Quin Houff	34.5	32.8	33.0	29.5	33.3	-8	3	0	1920
Garrett Smithley	34.5	35.5	33.0	29.0	34.0	13	1	0	925
Joey Gase	30.6	31.5	34.5	32.0	36.0	-14	4	0	765
Josh Bilicki	29.0	37.0	36.5	37.0	36.0	-4	0	0	426

Betting Targets

With each visit to Bristol Motor Speedway, it would be rather foolish to act like Kyle Busch is not a legitimate threat. Busch may just be the best to ever driver at Bristol and we have seen him drive beaten up cars to victory lane at Thunder Valley. While I will never deny Busch’s threatening nature at Bristol, my flat out favorite targets this week include the likes of Joey Logano and Chase Elliott. For clarity, Logano and Elliott are my favorite targets for futures (win) bets. As mentioned earlier, Elliott has been so strong at Bristol and seems to get better with every visit. For Logano, he is just always rock solid at Bristol and I cannot completely ignore how strong the #22 team has been with the 750hp package this season as well.

If you are wondering about Kyle Larson, he is simply a “no bet” for me this week. I love Larson’s driving style for Bristol but I am not laying any money on him at sub 5-1 betting odds. Judging by current betting odds, I would say Ryan Blaney and Kurt Busch are among the drivers with really good value. As you see above in the loop data statistics, Blaney has been very solid at Bristol and is getting 15-1 odds for a driver that has visited victory lane twice in the last 4 races. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch’s success at Bristol is etched in the history books with 6 overall victories yet the elder Busch is getting north of 20-1 odds. If you ask me, that is nearly a must-play based on value alone.

For deeper H2H or fantasy options, Ryan Preece, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Ross Chastain are among some of my favorite options. Personally, I think it is about time everyone recognizes that Chastain has probably been the most improved driver during the 2nd half of the season. Chastain has posted several quality performances in recent weeks. Chastain has run well at Bristol in other series and only has 4 Cup Series starts which were a product of bottom-tier equipment. With momentum and a strong team, Chastain is a threat for another breakout performance. Ricky Stenhouse has posted 4 top 5 finishes in 16 career starts and has the aggressive driving style to have success. The problem with Stenhouse is that he is always a risky option. Lastly, Ryan Preece is a really good bottom tier H2H option. Preece has improved in all 4 of his Cup Series starts at Bristol with a career best 9th place finish in this race last year.

Drivers to Fade

Among the drivers in that upper echelon category, Martin Truex Jr is the driver I am most comfortable fading this week. Statistically speaking, Truex has been downright bad at Bristol with just 1 top 10 finish in his last 17 starts. Unlike some of the other short tracks where long-run speed can be the product of equipment management and smooth driving, Bristol is one of those tracks where you must stay aggressive lap after lap. For that reason, Bristol is just not a track that fits Truex driving style and the statistics confidently back up that claim.

A couple of drivers that are in the intermediate range that could produce fade opportunities include the Hendrick Motorsports teammates of William Byron and Alex Bowman. As many will realize, I have praised the Hendrick Motorsports’ cars/drivers for most of the season. However, Bristol does not care much about horsepower or aerodynamics. Instead, this track relies on handling and most importantly a driver that can consistently find grip off the corner. So far in their young careers neither Byron or Bowman have shown much success at Bristol. While both drivers are having breakout seasons to a certain degree, both have also lost momentum in recent weeks. The only risk about fading these drivers is that both will probably gamble for track position due to their desperate point situations.

Draftkings 2021 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Optimal Lineup

2021 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Betting Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +900 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1100 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1500 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney -110 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Christopher Bell -105 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +400 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Ryan Preece +160 finishes Top 20 (2 units)