2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 17th, 2021. 2:00PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Just 3 races remain to decide the 4 drivers that will battle for a championship at Phoenix. Last week, the ROVAL provided a dramatic close to the Round of 12 which featured early exits from the likes of Alex Bowman, William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Kevin Harvick. On Sunday, the Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway for the first official points race of the season. Kyle Larson, last week’s winner at the ROVAL, secured a victory in the All-Star Race at Texas back in June. This week the stakes will be even higher for playoff contenders because a victory in Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 guarantees a spot in the championship 4 at Phoenix!

Due to the revamped 2021 schedule, the Cup Series has not frequented the 1.5 mile venues as much as many would expect from a traditional season. In fact, Denny Hamlin’s victory in the opening race in the Round of 12 at Las Vegas stands as the solo event on a 1.5 mile surface since Atlanta in early July. As a result, I believe bettors should be slightly conservative this week with their predictions. We will obviously break down some performance trends below to give everyone an idea towards how teams/drivers have performed at the 1.5 mile venues this season. However, it is worth noting the time differential that includes just two races in the last two months on the intermediate layouts. Therefore, we should expect some slight differences as teams have had extra time to put their best stuff forward for this final stretch of the season.

Loop Data

Texas Motor Speedway is not a very difficult 1.5 mile venue. The track was reconfigured and repaved in 2017. As a result, the surface at Texas provides tremendous grip. With the 550 horsepower package, Cup Series drivers will have minimal time off the throttle. Therefore, the teams that produce the most aerodynamic speed will likely prevail as long as the setup provides balance. For those reasons, I rarely give a ton of attention to prior Texas results as I believe this particular venue favors the equipment over the driver in most circumstances.

Still, I did provide a viewpoint below that includes the last 5 races at Texas and was relatively surprised to see Ryan Blaney at the top of the list. Kyle Busch (4), Kevin Harvick (3), and Denny Hamlin (3) have been the heavy hitters at Texas in recent years with 10 combined victories. Despite not having any wins at Texas, Blaney has been very consistent which helped him earn the top spot. In fact, Blaney has finished 8th or better in 6 of the last 7 races at Texas which perhaps provokes the idea that the #12 car could be a dark horse when the green flag waves on Sunday.

In the bottom graph, I compiled loop data statistics for the last 4 races at 1.5 mile speedways which includes Kansas, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Las Vegas. In this particular data set, you see more of the 550hp performance trends emerge. As you can see, Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch have put a gap between the rest of the competition with extremely impressive stats. Larson has two wins on 1.5 mile surfaces this year and an All-Star victory at Texas as well. Meanwhile, Busch has been incredible with the 550hp package this season finishing in the top 5 in every race, at 1.5 mile tracks, since Las Vegas in early March. For Hamlin, he deserves the ultimate respect as well due to the #11 teams’ late season emergence. Hamlin has solid averages with the 550hp package and has been the hottest driver in the series in recent weeks which includes two playoff wins in each opening round at Darlington and Las Vegas.

The noteworthy outliers in the bottom graphs include surprisingly strong results from the likes of Tyler Reddick and Brad Keselowski. Reddick has consistently been the best among the non-playoff drivers in recent weeks and is coming off a runner-up finish last week at the ROVAL. Keselowski has not had the season that many would expect but is still alive in the championship picture. I was surprised to see Keselowski slide into the 6th position in our loop data ranking and perhaps that is worth keeping in our back pocket. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Martin Truex Jr and Joey Logano are among the drivers that have not shown many positives with the 550hp package. Logano has struggled the most among the popular drivers with just a single top 10 finish all year on the 1.5 mile surfaces.

*Data reflects last 5 races at Texas Motor Speedway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Ryan Blaney	113.3	8.2	8.4	11.6	8.8	38	169	255	1564
Kevin Harvick	113.2	6.6	6.2	6.2	9.2	32	203	364	1672
Kyle Busch	110.3	10.2	13.2	7.8	9.2	56	151	185	1673
Joey Logano	105.1	7.6	7.2	7.4	7.8	32	48	89	1672
Aric Almirola	98.9	9.0	9.4	10.0	11.2	25	112	101	1671
Kurt Busch	96.8	10.4	12.4	8.0	10.0	14	73	1	1673
Martin Truex Jr	96.2	13.2	9.8	11.6	11.2	46	60	78	1659
Erik Jones	94.8	13.0	9.6	9.0	10.8	36	57	48	1672
Austin Dillon	86.5	17.0	13.0	9.8	12.2	25	18	27	1673
Alex Bowman	86.1	12.8	12.4	14.4	12.6	-1	58	57	1657
William Byron	83.3	11.6	14.0	17.8	13.0	13	33	23	1590
Chase Elliott	82.5	9.0	18.6	16.6	16.0	-21	51	35	1650
Denny Hamlin	81.3	5.8	19.4	17.6	17.4	-71	47	56	1660
Tyler Reddick	80.0	21.5	24.5	8.5	15.5	-4	12	5	668
Daniel Suarez	79.0	19.4	16.0	16.8	17.8	-2	50	34	1657
Christopher Bell	78.9	24.0	17.5	12.0	18.0	49	32	5	665
Kyle Larson	77.9	19.0	17.7	18.7	16.7	61	21	0	818
Brad Keselowski	76.0	6.8	21.6	20.4	19.4	36	40	65	1336
Cole Custer	72.1	17.5	14.5	26.5	20.0	21	7	0	553
Matt DiBenedetto	70.9	18.4	18.2	20.6	17.2	-12	9	3	1633
Ryan Newman	68.6	19.4	18.0	15.2	17.6	-32	3	0	1669
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	68.4	15.6	19.0	23.4	21.6	10	11	0	1277
Chris Buescher	61.4	19.2	19.6	23.0	21.8	6	12	0	1644
Michael McDowell	58.8	25.6	24.2	22.0	23.8	-31	3	0	1659
Ryan Preece	57.8	27.3	19.5	25.8	23.0	30	2	0	1213
Bubba Wallace	56.2	18.8	25.6	24.8	24.0	-47	3	2	1391
Corey LaJoie	42.3	33.0	31.0	29.4	30.6	-50	4	0	1331
Ross Chastain	36.9	34.3	33.0	30.7	32.3	20	1	0	974
Garrett Smithley	36.4	37.3	31.0	33.0	32.3	-19	2	0	838
Josh Bilicki	35.7	34.3	34.3	30.0	33.3	-21	2	0	967
Quin Houff	35.0	32.3	33.3	33.3	33.0	-8	1	0	813

*Date reflects races at Kansas, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Las Vegas

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	122.6	10.3	4.5	2.3	3.8	42	129	114	1194
Kyle Larson	121.1	10.0	3.0	12.0	5.0	-7	186	554	1194
Denny Hamlin	109.7	10.8	7.0	8.3	7.3	27	64	149	1194
Chase Elliott	108.4	8.0	13.3	4.0	7.8	23	79	36	1194
Tyler Reddick	102.4	11.5	7.5	7.0	7.3	12	57	11	1194
Brad Keselowski	97.5	9.0	11.8	7.8	9.3	-2	32	82	1194
William Byron	97.0	7.0	13.8	12.8	9.3	13	90	26	1192
Kevin Harvick	96.5	8.8	11.8	8.0	9.8	32	38	0	1194
Ryan Blaney	96.1	8.8	11.8	11.0	10.3	-21	43	10	1194
Martin Truex Jr	91.9	8.0	13.5	10.5	10.8	40	27	1	1185
Alex Bowman	90.5	14.0	10.5	12.3	11.8	-5	29	5	1192
Kurt Busch	87.9	17.0	16.5	15.5	14.8	26	66	144	933
Austin Dillon	87.8	10.0	13.8	10.3	11.8	31	33	8	1193
Matt DiBenedetto	82.0	13.3	14.5	10.8	13.8	-10	5	2	1192
Joey Logano	76.8	16.0	13.5	16.0	13.8	-16	17	0	1191
Christopher Bell	74.3	10.3	18.3	21.0	16.5	7	27	3	1187
Bubba Wallace	73.0	19.0	17.5	17.5	16.8	-4	7	0	1192
Chris Buescher	72.5	21.5	15.3	14.3	17.5	4	14	13	1192
Chase Briscoe	64.8	17.5	22.5	18.0	20.5	-7	1	0	1190
Ross Chastain	61.7	15.3	25.3	23.8	23.0	-28	15	0	1150
Daniel Suarez	61.5	20.8	20.8	19.3	23.8	-5	9	0	1174
Ryan Newman	60.2	24.3	23.5	22.8	23.3	3	26	0	1185
Erik Jones	59.4	21.0	21.8	22.8	21.5	-11	21	0	1187
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	59.0	15.8	18.8	25.0	21.8	-4	11	23	1102
Aric Almirola	56.1	21.5	17.5	23.3	22.5	-3	3	8	1185
Michael McDowell	54.3	18.8	20.3	20.3	22.8	-34	14	0	1187
Cole Custer	52.3	21.0	21.3	22.8	24.0	-28	2	1	1188
Corey LaJoie	50.4	26.3	25.8	24.5	24.8	-6	1	0	1185
Anthony Alfredo	49.4	28.8	19.5	25.3	25.3	1	2	3	1185
Ryan Preece	47.1	24.5	20.8	27.8	25.3	-17	15	1	1179
Justin Haley	40.0	30.5	30.3	29.8	30.5	-12	0	0	1173
B.J. McLeod	35.8	33.3	32.0	31.3	32.0	-5	0	0	1160
Cody Ware	34.8	33.3	32.5	32.5	32.3	-9	0	0	1159
Garrett Smithley	31.9	34.8	34.0	33.3	33.8	3	0	0	1153
Quin Houff	29.6	34.3	34.3	34.5	34.3	-17	0	0	1148
Josh Bilicki	26.5	33.8	35.8	36.0	36.0	-19	0	0	1132

Betting Targets

In many ways, I see the handicapping aspect of Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 similar to the recent South Point 400 at Las Vegas strategy which included avoiding the overall favorite in Kyle Larson for the likes of Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. I believe Hamlin and Busch have the better 1.5 mile performance at this point in the season and both drivers are getting more than twice the value compared to Larson. Additionally, I would also look very closely at Ryan Blaney as one of the better intermediate options on Sunday. Blaney is currently listed at +1250 and maybe among the best values on the entire board.

Another reasonable long shot option includes the #48 of Alex Bowman who is currently listed at more than 30-1 odds. Bowman has finished in the top 5 in 2 of the last 3 races at Texas. Bowman has been better with the 750hp package this season but should be considered based on the absurd value combined with the Hendrick Motorsports’ performance on the 1.5 mile speedways. Aside from the outright win (futures) predictions, I would label Tyler Reddick and Kurt Busch among my top H2H options that should provide sharp value on Sunday. I mentioned Reddick earlier in the loop data and honestly he has probably been the most improved driver throughout the season. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch has finished 1st, 4th, and 8th in the last 3 races at 1.5 mile venues. Not only is Busch a former winner at Texas (2009) but he has also finished in the top 10 in each of the last 8 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

For fantasy options, Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick are ideal options from the 17th and 24th starting positions. Harvick has not been nearly as good as most would expect this season at the 1.5 mile venues but still has finished 11th or better in every 1.5 mile race since Las Vegas in March. From the 24th starting position, Harvick just has to continue to stay the course to hit value. Likewise, Kurt Busch has shown too much strength at the 1.5 mile venues to be ignored from the 17th starting position especially for fantasy purposes. As mentioned earlier, Busch has finished in the top 8 in each of the last 3 races and provides solid leverage against many of the top names.

Drivers to Fade

I mentioned earlier in the loop data that Joey Logano has struggled significantly this season with the 550hp package. Logano has a measly 16.7 average finishing position in the 7 races this season at 1.5 mile intermediate speedways. Those numbers cannot be ignored when he is being paired against the majority of the championship contenders that have shown a more reliable ceiling. As a result, Logano is one of my top fades this week among the top drivers.

Another driver that I am looking to fade for similar reasons includes 2nd year driver Cole Custer. Everyone knows the Stewart-Haas Racing cars have struggled this season on the 1.5 mile surfaces. With that being said, Custer and the #41 team have been the worst group within the team. Custer has cracked the top 20 in just two races this season at the 1.5 mile races which includes dismal results of 17th and 18th in those two “successes.” While Custer is typically paired against bottom-tier drivers, I still believe we can fade the #41 with confidence this week.

Draftkings 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Optimal Lineup

2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +750 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +850 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1250 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +3200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Daniel Suarez -120 over Cole Custer (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -130 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
William Byron -110 over Joey Logano (2 units)