2021 Alsco Uniforms 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 6th, 2001. 4:30PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

In the last two weeks, the Xfinity Series has produced two first time winners in Ty Gibbs at Daytona’s road course and again with Myatt Snider last week at Homestead. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series is slated for another 300 mile battle when the green flag waves for the Alsco Uniforms 300 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Currently, odds-makers have Austin Cindric listed as a relatively large favorite at less than 2-1 odds. However, the Xfinity Series appears to be wide open in terms of competition in 2021 which bears the question; will we see another surprise winner on Saturday? Find out my thoughts and Alsco Uniforms 300 race picks for racing in Vegas!

Alsco Uniforms 300 Betting Preview

I am not going to hide away from the fact that I really don’t like this race from a betting standpoint. Austin Cindric is the rightful favorite but with disgusting betting odds. Meanwhile, there is a large group of drivers in the +900 to +1400 range which tells me only one thing; odds-makers do not know what to expect. Granted the Xfinity Series is coming off a recent stop at a 1.5 mile venue at Homestead but this week’s race at Las Vegas will be circumstantially very different. Instead of a slick race trick with no grip and heavy tire wear, Xfinity Series drivers will get a polar opposite combination at Las Vegas where car setups will prevail more than driver input and speed/track position will be the main ingredient towards success.

The racing at Vegas strongly favors raw speed which is typically based on the equipment and aerodynamic setups from the machines these drivers are piloting. Since this is the first race of its kind in 2021 and we have so many talented drivers participating in Saturday’s field; this becomes a difficult event to handicap to predict a potential winner. Instead, I find much better value in the form of H2H match-ups based around drivers to target and fade stemming from performance expectations. Unless I see significant change in win (futures) odds, I will likely only utilize betting match-ups in this event. Simply put, there is too much risk in the win bets this week based on current odds.

Betting Targets

For starters, Austin Cindric is the rightful favorite. The #22 team has been extremely strong on the 1.5 mile speedways over the past two seasons and likely has the edge over the competition. With that being said, I believe Daniel Hemric and Riley Herbst provide the most sharp value in terms of H2H targets. Herbst has the luxury of piloting the #98 machine that went to victory lane twice in 2020 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Despite a pair of poor finishes to start the season, Herbst has looked really good in terms of speed and I expect that trend to continue at Las Vegas where the #98 team was so strong a year ago.Meanwhile, Daniel Hemric is a driver that I expect will run well at the front of the field. Hemric has become synonymous for running well but never sealing the deal. While that is not a winning recipe for win bets, it does not discount his H2H potential. Hemric finished 3rd in the fall race at Vegas with JR. Motorsports and I believe JGR cars have better raw speed on the 1.5 mile surfaces. As a result, I expect Hemric will be in the thick of things again on Saturday and if he comes up 1-2 spots again; hopefully it will still be enough to cash most H2H bets.

Drivers to Fade

In the Bucked up 200 Truck Series preview, I made the statement that it is a bit too early in the season to start laying full blown H2H match-up size wagers. The reason for that statement is that we have not seen the speed and performance trends in 2021 for these 1.5 mile layouts that focus primarily towards performance. The same notion can be applied to Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300 because we need to establish a better trendline from performance before we rely on trends alone. Though I recommend a cautious approach, AJ Allmendinger and Tyler Reddick are the guys I am recommending for fade considerations on Saturday.

Last week, I noted that Tyler Reddick did not deserve to be the overwhelming betting favorite at Homestead due to his equipment. I feel like that prediction was right for the most part as Reddick was never a real factor until the closing laps when tire wear became so critical. I remained convinced that the #23 group is not among the elite teams and believe we can use that for fade consideration. Likewise, AJ Allmendinger does not deserve to be among the overall favorites this week either. Personally, I am rooting for Allmendinger to re-establish his career in the sport and believe that he is on the right path with Kaulig Racing. However, Kaulig Racing’s biggest weakness over the past two season has come on the 1.5 mile speedways where they lack the top speed compared to the other premier teams. If that trend holds true like I expect, Allmendinger appears extremely overvalued in terms of odds and match-ups.

Draftkings Alsco Uniforms 300 Optimal Lineup

2021 Alsco Uniforms 300 Betting Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +600 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Riley Herbst +105 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Ty Dillon -110 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)