2021 Alsco Uniforms 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday June 12th, 4:00PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The 2nd leg of Saturday’s double header will feature the Xfinity Series and the running of the Alsco Uniforms 250 at Texas Motor Speedway. Last week, AJ Allmendinger scored his 2nd victory of the season with a late charge at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. On Saturday, Allmendinger will have the luxury of leading the field to the green flag for the 2nd race of the afternoon following the Truck Series’ running of the SpeedyCash.com 220. As we prepare for back to back betting opportunities on Saturday, take a look as we break down the Alsco Uniforms 250 and discuss the drivers that warrant betting consideration.

The first thing that all bettors must realize is that Kyle Busch will be making his 2nd Xfinity Series start of the season. Rowdy’s 1st start came a few weeks ago at Circuit of the Americas where he dominated an extremely talented field by leading 35 of 46 laps en route to victory. The win pushed Busch’s career total to 98 victories in the Xfinity Series. Rowdy has long stated that he would quit competing in the Xfinity Series if he reaches 100 wins and that could happen this year if things go as planned. After the dominating win at COTA, Busch enters Saturday’s race as the overwhelming favorite yet again. Perhaps what makes Busch an even stronger candidate is the fact that Ty Gibbs just recently drove the #54 car to victory at Charlotte. Texas Motor Speedway shares many similarities to Charlotte and is almost identical in turns 3-4. With so much success recently from the #54 team with the younger Gibbs, Busch has to be considered a top threat on just a two week turnaround from both of those events.

Betting Strategy

I must be honest, this preview is going to be shorter than normal because I simply don’t like this particular race from a betting standpoint. I believe this is Kyle Busch’s race to lose but he is extremely overvalued at -150 type odds. Furthermore, we have not seen any Xfinity Series drivers consistently step-up at the 1.5 mile tracks that give us any reliable 2nd-tier threats that could overtake Busch. Now, I am not ruling out any other drivers from winning but rather just saying we have not seen anyone run upfront on a true consistent basis this season at these intermediate tracks.

I am hoping that we can find some value in the form of H2H match-ups but I have not seen many pairings that I like from some of the early match-ups posted this week. Luckily, oddsmakers tend to offer additional match-ups and I am hoping to get better variety closer to race time. Even with that hope in mind, I would approach this race with utmost caution and don’t try to force any bets that do not reach the level of the sharpness that we require. I am hoping for more action closer to start time but don’t be surprised if this betting card is extremely conservative!

Loop Data

The Xfinity Series has held 4 prior races at 1.5 mile venues this season which consists of Homestead, Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Charlotte. I compiled loop data metrics across those 4 events which should provide a solid baseline of expectations especially when you consider the similarities of Texas with the likes of Charlotte and Atlanta. For clarity, I did throw Ty Gibbs into the loop data averages despite just 1 start in an attempt to gauge his performance from Charlotte. With Kyle Busch suiting up for the first time at a 1.5 mile speedway this season in the Xfinity Series, I wanted to provide at least one data point for reference from the same #54 machine that he will be piloting. Obviously a one race sample size is not ideal. However, I would also point out that all the JGR cars have been fairly strong this season so I would say Busch’s ceiling is probably even higher than the stats Gibbs posted in his Charlotte victory.

In observing the loop data stats below, there are not many surprises based on what we have seen this season. It continues to amaze me how much speed Daniel Hemric has shown but always seems to somehow blow it by the end of the race. Additionally, I would like to point out that even though this is a 4 race sample; these numbers can still be slightly misleading. The one that stands out the most is Justin Allgaier. Allgaier had a stellar performance at Atlanta as he displayed tremendous long-run speed that earned a victory. However, Allgaier has not shown that same speed at the other 1.5 mile venues and has failed to crack the top 10 in his other 3 starts. Personally, I believe all the JR Motorsports cars are lacking a bit of speed on the 1.5 mile tracks. Allgaier could overcome that obstacle at a heavy tire wear track like Atlanta but I don’t expect that to be the case on Saturday.

*Note Ty Gibbs has just 1 start in the data below:

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Ty Gibbs	121.2	8.0	24.0	1.0	6.0	24	22	20	200
AJ Allmendinger	110.9	10.5	10.5	13.5	10.5	61	71	91	670
Austin Cindric	109.9	2.0	8.3	6.3	7.5	13	65	114	742
Daniel Hemric	108.7	4.8	6.3	10.8	7.0	41	62	179	728
Justin Haley	98.2	9.5	7.3	10.5	8.0	53	39	10	742
Harrison Burton	97.3	10.8	13.0	13.8	11.5	37	24	1	633
Noah Gragson	96.9	27.5	8.3	17.5	9.5	123	26	34	715
Justin Allgaier	96.4	22.0	7.5	16.3	11.8	58	31	51	661
Brandon Jones	96.3	9.5	14.0	12.8	12.3	53	24	34	711
Michael Annett	89.3	19.3	8.5	12.8	10.5	44	4	0	741
Tyler Reddick	88.1	31.3	14.0	6.3	12.3	87	3	8	579
Jeb Burton	87.2	5.3	8.0	12.3	12.5	-35	5	0	741
Riley Herbst	83.3	12.3	19.8	17.5	16.8	44	8	7	598
Myatt Snider	80.0	6.8	17.3	17.5	17.8	-23	4	5	729
Ty Dillon	76.7	14.3	13.3	25.3	17.7	9	11	2	497
Jeremy Clements	76.5	8.3	15.0	12.3	15.5	-17	1	3	741
Josh Berry	75.4	17.3	14.3	22.0	16.8	51	22	0	659
Brett Moffitt	74.3	9.0	22.0	26.8	18.8	27	10	6	597
Ryan Sieg	72.0	20.0	18.0	22.0	18.5	55	1	4	566
Santino Ferrucci	69.2	18.7	25.7	19.7	22.7	-38	9	0	540
Brandon Brown	67.9	17.0	19.0	20.8	19.3	-51	4	4	712
Tommy Joe Martins	62.9	22.5	16.0	20.3	19.3	-86	0	0	728
Landon Cassill	62.0	18.3	21.0	17.0	21.8	-21	0	0	741
Alex Labbe	61.3	27.8	20.5	20.5	21.5	-14	0	0	723
Jeffrey Earnhardt	57.9	27.3	23.5	20.8	22.8	-8	0	0	740
Josh Williams	57.3	23.0	24.8	20.0	23.8	-31	0	0	740
Colby Howard	53.5	29.5	18.5	27.0	24.8	-48	0	6	655
Bayley Currey	52.0	29.0	27.0	27.3	26.0	14	0	0	509
Kyle Weatherman	46.1	20.7	31.0	29.0	29.0	-36	0	0	524
Jade Buford	46.0	26.0	26.8	23.5	27.3	-79	3	0	736
Joe Graf Jr	45.4	22.0	31.3	25.0	28.3	-51	0	0	538
Timmy Hill	44.3	26.0	31.3	27.0	29.0	-25	0	0	556
David Star	44.3	35.3	29.0	26.0	28.0	-13	0	0	538
Ryan Vargas	43.1	31.0	29.0	23.8	28.5	-68	0	0	738
Chad Finchum	42.7	32.0	33.0	26.5	29.3	-10	0	0	636
Jesse Little	42.4	28.3	27.8	24.8	27.5	-62	0	0	737
Dexter Bean	39.8	25.7	30.3	26.0	31.0	-45	0	0	533
Stefan Parsons	36.5	28.0	33.3	30.3	32.0	4	0	0	513
Gray Gaulding	34.8	31.7	34.3	30.7	33.0	-27	0	0	526
Matt Mills	31.8	27.8	34.8	34.5	33.5	-35	0	0	509

Targets and Fades

I feel like I am trying to force betting targets and fades this week which is not a good sign in the realm of handicapping. Obviously, I believe Kyle Busch will be the driver to beat. I also really like the speed from the Joe Gibbs Racing cars, especially Daniel Hemric if he can just find a way to finish a race. I also believe AJ Allmendinger continues to provide some sharp value at the intermediate speedways. Mostly known as the road course talent, Allmendinger has been fast everywhere this season with 8 top 5 finishes through 13 races. I continue to be impressed with the speed from the #16 and perhaps that could provide a betting opportunity given the appropriate pairing.

I am keeping this section of my preview rather brief this week because I just don’t have many sharp targets or fades. As mentioned above in the loop data, I do believe Justin Allgaier is worthy of fade consideration especially when you consider he is among the 2nd-tier drivers in terms of betting odds. Another name that I will throw out for fade opportunities surrounds the #2 car of Myatt Snider. Snider has an average running position of 17.8, on the 1.5 mile tracks, which is surprising when you consider he scored a victory at Homestead. Despite the win, Snider has been pretty bad in the outings since on the intermediate tracks. Personally, I believe Snider’s skill set is more tailored towards short track/road course style racing but perhaps that remains to be confirmed. Still, if I can find value on the other side of match-ups, I will gladly fade the #2 team this week.

Draftkings Alsco Uniforms 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 Alsco Uniforms 250 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +1000 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1200 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

AJ Allmendinger -130 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Justin Haley +115 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Daniel Hemric +100 over Noah Gragson (2 units)