2021 Ally 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 20th, 2021. 3:30PM (EST) at Nashville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

For the first time in history, NASCAR’s Cup Series will drop the green flag at Nashville Speedway for the running of the Ally 400. NASCAR’s 2021 schedule enhancement has featured several first time venues including the dirt race at Bristol and most recently at Circuit of the Americas. Both of those races turned out to be success stories despite some moderate controversy with visibility from dirt and rainy conditions. The one thing that has held true is NASCAR’s continued efforts to bring more interesting racing to the Cup Series has paid dividends and this Sunday’s running of the Ally 400 will be another intriguing debut for NASCAR’s best at Nashville Speedway.

When the green flag drops on Sunday, Nashville Speedway will officially become the longest concrete oval on the Cup Series schedule. Bristol Motor Speedway and Dover International Speedway are currently the only full-concrete surfaces on the schedule with the Monster Mile being the biggest. Nashville Speedway is a 1.33 mile venue similar to the likes of Darlington in length. However, Nashville is a much flatter track at just 14 degrees of banking in the corners and will likely provoke racing that is similar to a larger version of Richmond Raceway. Nashville Speedway previously held multiple Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series’ events back in the early 2000s before shutting down in 2012. The track just recently reopened with plans for this Sunday’s Ally 400 hoping to bring a different racing product to NASCAR’s premier series.

For bettors, there are a few things to keep in mind as Sunday’s race approaches. For starters, Cup Series teams and drivers will have the opportunity to tune their machines this weekend via a 50-minute practice session on Friday. This week’s traditional practice format should give bettors the opportunity to take notice of drivers that have quickly adapted to Nashville’s 1.33 mile layout. It is worth noting that a few drivers like Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski are among the few drivers that have actually competed at Nashville during Xfinity Series competition. For the rest of the competitors, Nashville Speedway will be a brand new venue and perhaps practice observations will provide the opportunity to take note of drivers that quickly adapt or struggle to the new layout.

750HP Performance Data

Outside of practice notes and the rare experience factor, I would say another equally compelling aspect to Sunday’s handicapping is evaluating the performance trends using the 750HP low-downforce package that will be utilized at Nashville Speedway this weekend. As most are aware, the 750HP package is routinely used at the short tracks and the road courses. NASCAR utilized this package for the first time at Darlington Raceway (same size) back in early May and have chosen to use this same package again this week in Nashville. With limited experience across the board, these performance trends may be among the most valuable handicapping tools for this Sunday’s Ally 400. As a result, I have compiled loop data stats for all oval races during the 2021 season under this particular rules package.

After compiling the cumulative data under this package, I was slightly surprised to see Denny Hamlin’s name at the top of the list. I expected Martin Truex would be the clear frontrunner with 3 wins under this package. However, Hamlin has actually yielded the better stats on the ovals which includes a Cup Series best 4.0 average finishing position. Hamlin also leads the Cup Series with the most laps led (523) among all active drivers. Behind Hamlin, Truex and Joey Logano should not be any surprise due to their continued success under this package. I really believe Logano should be elevated this week based on our loop data trends combined with prior superb performance results at Nashville in Xfinity Series’ competition.

I know a lot of people have already jumped on Truex this but I am very hesitant for a couple of reasons. First, Truex rarely performs well at first-time venues and I posted a tweet this week displaying his results at first time venues in recent years. Secondly and perhaps most importantly, I don’t think Nashville is the best fit for Truex’s driving style. Truex is best at slow-rolling corners where he can let the car come to him, Nashville is flat but produces much faster corners that will profit aggressive drivers. For these reasons, I am not convinced Truex is the play this week. With that being said, you can’t ignore his success under the 750HP package this year either.

Behind the top guys, I must admit that I am relatively surprised to see Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch so far down this list on loop data results. I have Keselowski and Busch labeled as potential targets this week as both are former winners at Nashville. However, it is pretty clear that both drivers have struggled to a noticeable degree under this rules package. Other notable observations on different ends of the spectrum include dismal results for Cole Custer and promising results for William Byron. Custer has posted one of the worst average ratings (55.8) in the Cup Series under this package this season which seems to correlate to Stewart-Haas Racing struggles under this package. Meanwhile, Byron has been phenomenal all season and can be considered a true dark horse this week when many eyes will be on the tenured Cup Series’ talents.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Denny Hamlin	125.1	3.2	4.0	4.0	3.6	-1	231	523	1905
Martin Truex Jr	120.8	3.6	5.4	5.4	5.6	17	237	455	1904
Joey Logano	111.2	7.2	9.6	5.8	5.6	-8	90	198	1904
William Byron	106.7	5.0	7.6	5.4	7.2	31	64	30	1905
Kyle Larson	105.5	9.0	13.8	6.8	9.6	74	209	264	1903
Ryan Blaney	100.3	8.4	7.2	10.4	7.6	20	55	192	1905
Chase Elliott	99.7	5.6	8.8	5.8	9.4	97	91	0	1905
Kevin Harvick	96.7	8.6	6.8	10.2	8.2	-11	49	10	1902
Alex Bowman	93.2	20.0	8.0	13.2	11.8	76	110	108	1787
Christopher Bell	90.3	13.4	14.0	11.0	12.0	30	44	12	1900
Brad Keselowski	86.8	9.4	9.6	18.2	12.2	-17	59	48	1787
Kyle Busch	85.3	7.6	17.6	14.6	15.0	23	46	10	1897
Austin Dillon	77.8	13.0	15.2	14.2	14.8	4	19	1	1903
Tyler Reddick	77.6	14.2	12.4	15.4	14.2	23	22	2	1900
Matt DiBenedetto	72.7	16.8	15.8	15.6	16.2	-3	2	0	1897
Kurt Busch	71.5	19.0	16.6	19.4	17.6	29	47	0	1716
Ross Chastain	69.0	20.8	21.2	16.2	17.8	-17	4	10	1902
Chris Buescher	68.2	13.0	16.0	16.4	18.0	-64	11	1	1902
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	67.6	15.8	18.6	16.8	18.4	-25	36	1	1900
Bubba Wallace	67.1	22.0	22.4	18.0	18.6	3	17	27	1899
Daniel Suarez	63.0	20.8	18.4	20.2	20.8	-10	36	0	1787
Aric Almirola	62.0	28.8	17.2	22.2	21.2	35	5	0	1516
Chase Briscoe	57.7	23.0	24.0	23.4	22.2	-42	0	0	1828
Erik Jones	57.6	21.8	19.0	21.8	20.0	-35	20	0	1800
Ryan Newman	57.6	15.8	22.0	22.0	21.4	-38	1	0	1893
Cole Custer	55.8	25.0	26.2	23.6	23.4	-3	15	0	1703
Ryan Preece	54.3	22.2	26.4	26.8	24.8	-17	39	0	1778
Corey LaJoie	50.0	31.8	18.6	26.6	24.6	27	0	12	1766
Michael McDowell	48.2	17.4	25.4	26.6	25.4	-27	15	0	1778
Anthony Alfredo	39.5	28.8	29.0	29.6	30.0	-40	7	0	1655
B.J McLeod	36.9	32.8	32.2	31.8	31.2	-52	2	0	1799
Justin Haley	36.3	31.0	29.8	31.3	31.0	-6	3	0	984
Quin Houff	33.4	33.2	32.0	29.8	32.0	-22	0	0	1862
Cody Ware	32.3	32.6	34.2	33.0	33.6	-13	3	1	1551
James Davison	30.8	34.4	33.8	30.4	33.8	-10	1	0	1855
Josh Bilicki	29.0	34.8	34.4	32.4	34.2	-20	0	0	1761

Saturday Practice Notes

Earlier today, Cup Series teams had the rare opportunity to fine tune their cars for Sunday’s Ally 400 through a 50 minute practice session. At the end of practice, William Byron was on top of the board with a fast lap of 161.082mph. Byron and Kyle Larson nearly posted the same time exactly. Larson also posted a 161.082 but was squeezed out by Byron by .0001 on the stopwatch. However, Larson was the driver that stood out yet again. On the heels of 3 straight wins including the All-Star Race, Larson has become the Cup Series’ weekly favorite and proved why again today by leading all drivers with the fastest 5, 10, and 15 lap averages.

Outside of Larson, all of the Hendrick Motorsports cars looked strong. Chase Elliott clocked-in with the 3rd fastest time and showed some serious race speed. The #9 car was reportedly turning well which is one of the main things you need out of your car at Nashville Speedway. Needless to say, the Hendrick boys clearly continue to trend in the right direction. Outside of Hendrick Motorsports, Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain were the surprise stories in Saturday’s session. Blaney did not run a ton of laps but was very consistent. Meanwhile, Chastain was among the fastest cars throughout the entire session. Chastain ran the Truck Series race on Friday so I’m sure that helped to some degree. However, the #42 was really strong on the long-run which should come into play on Sunday.

On the other end of the spectrum, a few drivers that did not impress during Saturday’s practice include the likes of Joey Logano, Martin Truex, and Kurt Busch. I took a gamble at Logano at 14-1 odds on openers due to his performance this season under the 750HP package and stylistic setup for Nashville. Needless to say, I was not happy about my early bet on the #22 from Saturday’s observations. Meanwhile, Martin Truex also did not show much muscle on Saturday which is surprising to many. Truex leads the Cup Series with 3 victories under this rules package and I know he had a lot of early week support from casual fans. Lastly, Kurt Busch was one of those drivers that caught my eye that really struggled with consistency. I’m not sure what the #1 team was struggling with exactly but the lap times were pretty bad from a consistency standpoint.

Betting Targets

Before I get into predictions, I just want to clearly state that our predictions should never be based solely on practice observations. Practice speeds absolutely have value but rest assured teams will take big swings at setup changes before they roll their cars onto the grid’ Sunday for impound qualifying. With that thought in mind, I do believe everyone will continue to chase the Hendrick Motorsports cars which has been a growing trend throughout the season. While Larson looked great in practice, I also liked what I saw from the #9 and #24 teams of Elliott and Byron. I think Elliott may entail the sharp value going into Sunday’s race

Though Kyle Busch did not have a great practice on Saturday, I still expect the #18 to have a strong afternoon on Sunday. Busch is among the few drivers with experience at Nashville and picked up win #100 in Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 250 in the Xfinity Series. We have heard several drivers compare Nashville to a bigger Richmond and if that statement is true; Nashville should play into Busch’s driving style. The #18 team has been improving throughout the year and I’m not going to let Saturday’s practice deter me from keeping Rowdy on my radar. Despite my ambition for Rowdy, I must admit that Hamlin appeared the best out of the JGR cars in practice. Despite a few tough weeks, Hamlin still leads the Cup Series in Top 5 and Top 10 finishes and is long overdue for a victory.

Honestly, I think win/futures bets are a bit risky going into this new venue this week. We have seen throughout the Truck and Xfinity Series races that track position is very important and teams can gamble with tire strategy due to the hard compound GoodYear has brought to the track which yields minimal fall off in lap times. Those conditions are a perfect recipe for a driver to earn a victory that perhaps does not deserve it. As a result, the main focus of my betting attention will be towards H2H match-ups which have paid the biggest dividends this season.

The two drivers that I am giving a lot of attention to for H2H and potential fantasy purposes includes Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick. I mentioned Chastain’s really strong practice results earlier and he has also posted top 10 finishes in 2 of the last 3 races. Meanwhile, I feel like Reddick is not getting the credit he deserves. Reddick continues to be paired against mediocre to lower-tier drivers. However, the 2nd year driver has recorded 8 Top 10 finishes on the season. In fact, the only drivers with more top 10 finishes without a win are Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick. Reddick has been paired against teammate Austin Dillon and a few other intermediate talents. If that happens again tomorrow, I will be all over Reddick in H2H match-ups.

*Christopher Bell also deserves H2H attention given the correct match-ups. Bell was 1 of 3 drivers that tested at Nashville and also has shown success at similar venues like Iowa and Gateway in the Xfinity Series.

Betting Fades

This may be an unpopular opinion but I am fading Martin Truex Jr in Sunday’s Ally 400. I posted a tweet earlier this week that documents Truex’s struggles at new venues and I think he is being grossly overvalued due to prior success this season at the short tracks. Personally, I think Truex has gotten attention for all the wrong reasons this week and I will gladly choose better options in the same odds range for matchup purposes. Additionally, Cole Custer and Kurt Busch are also potential fade targets given the correct match-ups. There may be more fade opportunities following qualifying if certain drivers post qualifying efforts much better than I expect. However, that will not be determined until qualifying concludes early Sunday. Be sure to check back for our “final” bets.

Draftkings 2021 Ally 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Ally 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +800 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +800 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1400 (1 unit) *early play

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney -110 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Ross Chastain -115 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Christopher Bell +200 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)