2020 YellaWood 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 5th, 2:15PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

In the heart of NASCAR’s Cup Series playoffs, there is one true wildcard event that will inevitably shake up the championship race and that event will happen on Sunday when the green flag waves for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. The chaos, uncertainty, and bewilderment of superspeedway racing will culminate on the highbanks of Talladega’s 2.66 mile speedway. As everyone knows, the superspeedway races are the events that bring ultimate parity and the potential for surprise winners to the forefront of NASCAR’s top division. While the uncertainty factor is not ideal for NASCAR handicappers or bettors, superspeedway racing odds are relatively generous and that provides us a unique opportunity to pursue a realistic big payout!

If you look back through the history at Talladega Superspeedway, there have not been as many surprise winners as you might expect. In the last 12 races, Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Aric Almirola’s victories are perhaps the most surprising victors despite both drivers showing premium superspeedway talent in prior events. Instead of many surprise winners, the former winner’s list is mainly composed of Team Penske drivers in recent years which includes Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. Blaney has actually scored wins in each of the last two races at Talladega. Logano has been victorious in 3 of the last 10 starts at Dega and Keselowski is the all-time wins leader (5) among active drivers. Therefore while the superspeedway races provide the extreme underdog potential, oftentimes the driver getting the checkered flag has proven to be successful at this style of racing.

Talladega Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Joey Logano	111.0	11.2	7.0	7.6	6.8	33	1005	17	156	948
Kurt Busch	100.2	9.6	13.0	11.8	10.2	38	1121	25	129	941
Ryan Blaney	99.3	14.0	7.6	12.8	9.0	8	1222	23	108	948
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	94.8	10.4	13.4	8.8	12.6	57	1149	24	57	947
Aric Almirola	93.5	13.2	10.4	4.8	12.2	-79	984	17	31	948
Brad Keselowski	90.9	8.8	6.0	23.4	10.8	-48	1134	21	74	919
Alex Bowman	88.1	7.4	11.2	17.4	13.2	28	1093	16	46	864
Chase Elliott	87.9	6.6	12.0	16.2	13.6	101	947	28	66	891
Kyle Busch	87.4	15.8	9.8	20.0	12.0	46	1328	30	17	946
Denny Hamlin	81.7	15.8	18.6	12.2	17.8	7	708	26	29	840
William Byron	81.5	14.4	13.0	22.8	13.6	-43	991	20	43	899
Kevin Harvick	79.6	8.6	14.6	19.4	16.0	29	708	22	60	771
Jimmie Johnson	76.2	10.2	18.2	20.6	20.2	-3	823	16	3	856
Ty Dillon	76.1	25.0	19.4	13.8	18.4	16	556	26	7	948
Ryan Newman	72.8	18.2	18.2	13.4	21.8	67	291	34	4	948
Erik Jones	72.1	15.4	25.8	21.0	20.6	-54	691	18	5	805
Chris Buescher	71.1	25.2	19.6	17.6	18.6	30	775	12	6	940
Ryan Preece	71.0	30.3	24.3	12.0	21.7	74	349	15	3	567
Daniel Suarez	70.7	19.8	14.0	19.6	17.2	-31	866	28	1	927
Austin Dillon	70.4	16.6	14.2	22.2	17.4	-17	804	17	1	867
Clint Bowyer	69.8	6.2	19.4	22.0	19.4	-112	569	22	13	916
Matt DiBenedetto	66.7	28.0	17.4	27.2	18.2	2	701	26	10	932
Martin Truex Jr	64.2	10.6	25.0	23.6	23.6	-40	386	17	15	938
Corey LaJoie	61.8	33.5	28.0	16.5	26.8	51	42	13	0	758
Bubba Wallace	60.9	22.2	22.0	22.4	22.8	8	485	17	7	767
Brendan Gaughan	59.9	30.8	26.8	18.0	23.8	37	171	25	7	941
Michael McDowell	54.1	18.8	27.6	27.0	26.0	-50	431	23	0	709
Gray Gaulding	41.2	33.0	33.0	27.0	30.5	-2	0	5	0	377
Joey Gase	39.2	35.8	33.0	29.5	31.0	-40	42	13	0	673
J.J Yeley	34.3	33.0	34.5	36.0	33.0	-29	3	4	0	363
Timmy Hill	30.4	38.5	36.5	34.5	36.0	-7	0	5	0	336

If we look at drivers that have displayed quality performance at Talladega in the form of our loop data ratings, then you will notice that Joey Logano leads all drivers with a solid 111.0 driver rating over the last 5 races at Talladega. The only other driver that has averaged a triple digit rating is Kurt Busch who is coming off a big victory at Las Vegas last week. Surprisingly, the elder Busch has never won at Talladega in 39 starts despite ranking 5th among active drivers with a career average finishing position of 15th. Busch has finished inside the top 10 in 6 of the last 8 races at Talladega and the #1 team will be hoping that lightning strikes twice for the 2nd straight Sunday.

Behind Logano and Busch, drivers like Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Brad Keselowski have all averaged 90 plus average ratings. I know I have already mentioned each of those drivers names above due to their success at Talladega but it is worth noting that their success has not come by surprise. Those drivers have consistently run at the front of the field and given themselves premium opportunities to get the job done. The key to success at Talladega is surviving the full distance and being in position in the closing laps for a victory. Therefore, we have to consider things like driver ratings and average running positions to help our betting predictions yield higher probabilistic value!

Betting Targets

For superspeedway races, there are not really many “sharp” betting picks. Rather betting targets can simply be classified as winners and losers. You either look like a genius or you question why you would even bet this style of racing. The reason behind these emotions is because legitimately any driver can score a victory which makes superspeedway racing the ultimate guessing game. However, I have stated multiple times that superspeedway philosophy that focuses on value can provide a long term profitable strategy if you minimize risk and bet on drivers that yield significant ROI. With that being said, our targets for this Sunday’s race will not only require proven success at superspeedway racing but must also yield substantial value to outweigh the risk of racing at Talladega.

The drivers that fit into that category include drivers like Aric Almirola (+1500) and Kurt Busch (+2200). Both Almirola and Busch have shown tremendous success towards giving themselves an opportunity late in these types of races and their odds provide a sufficient amount of ROI. Though he is one of the overall favorites at 9 to 1 odds, I am always a fan of Joey Logano at Talladega. It’s just a matter of the type of risk/reward you want to have in your lineup. A few drivers that have dark horse betting potential include the likes of Austin Dillon (+3000) and Chris Buescher (+4000). Dillon has been performing extremely well in the playoffs and is among the underrated superspeedway talents. His aggressive driving style rivals Ricky Stenhouse in the category of wreckers or checkers. However, Dillon’s 30 to 1 odds are appealing despite the risk.

Lastly, Chris Buescher is another dark horse that should start getting more superspeedway attention. Before William Byron’s win at Daytona, I firmly stated that Byron was likely the best superspeedway talent in the field. I believe Buescher is starting to enter that type of category. Buescher has recorded 3 top 5 finishes in his last 6 starts at Daytona including two top 10 finishes in 2020. While Buescher’s success has not been as strong at Talladega, he did drive the #17 to a 6th place finish back in June. At 40 to 1 odds and higher depending on where you look, Buescher has the long shot potential that you want in your lineup.

Fantasy Targets

I have mentioned through both prior previews this week that I am not a fan of fantasy racing at the superspeedways. The risk and uncertainty of this style of racing does not play into my philosophy of sharp betting. With that being said, the premier strategy for this type of racing is capitalizing on place-differential potential. Additionally, you don’t have to stress about using up every bit of your salary cap this week as winning lineups will likely leave salary dollars on the table. A few of my favorite targets this week include the likes of Ricky Stenhouse ($8,800), Tyler Reddick ($7,900), and Justin Haley ($5,400). I believe all 3 of those drivers provide extreme value based on price and starting position. Haley won his 3rd straight superspeedway race in the Xfinity Series earlier today and won the 2019 Coke Zero 400 thanks to Mother Nature. At a bare minimum price, I will take Haley’s upside despite the inferior equipment.

Draftkings 2020 YellaWood 500 Optimal Lineup

2020 YellaWood 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Aric Almirola +1500 (.75 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1600 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +2200 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +3000 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +4000 (.5 unit)
Ryan Newman +5000 (.25 unit)
Ty Dillon +10000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Derek Kraus -115 over Tanner Gray (win)
Brad Keselowski/Joey Logano +425 wins YellaWood 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +880

Match-Ups and Props

Erik Jones +1000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1200 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +2500 finishes Top 3 (.25 unit)
Cole Custer +285 wins group E (Bell, Dillon, DiBenedetto) (1 unit)