2020 World of Westgate 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Friday September 25th, 9:00PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR returns for 3 straight nights of racing this weekend in the heart of Sin City at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series will kick off the action late Friday with the running of the World of Westgate 200 which will be the 2nd race in the Truck Series’ playoffs. Last week, Sam Mayer delivered a surprising victory at Bristol Motor Speedway which means none of the championship contenders secured their spot into the next round. On Friday, the championship battle heats up and we look to take advantage with our 2020 World of Westgate 200 race picks for Vegas!

The Truck Series visited Las Vegas back in February one week after the Daytona 500. Reigning Cup Series Champion Kyle Busch captured the victory in the Strat 200 over the likes of Johnny Sauter, Austin Hill, Matt Crafton, and Ben Rhodes. For this Friday’s race at Las Vegas, it will be a relatively brand new race as the track temperature and conditions will be much different than it was back in February. However, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is still one of the smoothest 1.5 mile surfaces on the schedule where Truck Series drivers will nearly hold the throttle wide open. As a result, we will be putting our betting focus towards the teams that have shown the best raw aerodynamic speed and the drivers that have proven success at Vegas.

Betting Strategy

As many are aware, my main sportsbook (5Dimes) recently stopped taking action from U.S customers. While 5Dimes has stated that the suspension would be temporary, it is a tough blow for NASCAR bettors from one of the best racing sportsbooks in the industry. Without premier odds and parlay options, it definitely makes things tougher as we move down the final stretch of the season. As a result, all bets will have to be extremely sharp and relatively conservative. The value in betting odds has weakened with the news surrounding 5Dimes which will make things tough especially in the realm of win (futures) bets. Personally, I will be putting more focus towards H2H bets in upcoming races because I believe that is where the most value will be identified. For now, our strategy remains relatively conservative in the realm of win (futures) bets.

Betting Targets

Aside from the February race at Las Vegas, I have focused on performance trends for similar 1.5 layouts like Kansas and Kentucky in my handicapping formula this week. Both Kansas Speedway and Kentucky Speedway are similar in layout, banking, and share similar characteristics in how drivers approach each speedway. Kansas is most closely similar to Las Vegas out of the two comparisons because Kentucky Speedway’s has a rather bumpy surface. If you combine the performance trends at all 3 tracks this year, Austin Hill and Matt Crafton easily emerge as our top betting targets for this Friday’s World of Westgate 200.

Both Hill and Crafton won on back to back days at Kansas Speedway back in June and both drivers finished inside the top 5 back at Las Vegas in February. Austin Hill is the defending winner of the World of Westgate 200 and had a strong 3rd place finish in February. Crafton has never won at Las Vegas but has finished inside the top 5 in 3 of his last 4 starts. Crafton finished 30th in this race in 2019 thanks to a blown engine but was having another top 5 afternoon in that race as well. The reason I like Crafton is because the #88 team has shown terrific speed on the 1.5 mile surfaces this season. In the last 4 races on these layouts, Crafton has finished 3rd, 3rd, 4th, and 1st. Needless to say, this will be another opportunity for the #88 team and driver to flex their muscles where they have been strongest.

I understand that guys like Zane Smith, Brett Moffitt, and Sheldon Creed deserve betting consideration this week because of their performance throughout the 2020 season. Creed has posted a breakout style campaign in 2020 with 3 victories and the same can be said for rookie Zane Smith who has two wins on the season. Points leader Brett Moffitt is still chasing his first win of the year but has been Mr. Consistency with 8 top 5 finishes which leads the series. I think you could make an argument for any of these 3 drivers’ chances Friday night. Personally, Brett Moffitt makes the most sense based on current form and recent speed. However, I also believe those drivers are risky betting options based on their current odds.

Dark Horse and Fantasy Targets

Last week, I called out Sam Mayer as a driver to target heavily in fantasy lineups and was extremely high on Mayer’s potential. Out of stupidity, I did not have any bets for Mayer to take the win because I did not think his ceiling was quite that high. This week, I think we have a couple of live dark horses yet again but at much lower odds compared to Mayer’s last week at Bristol. The pair of drivers that I believe fall into the live dog category this week include both Ben Rhodes and Grant Enfinger.

If you have read my previews in recent weeks, I have complimented the Thorsport Racing trucks as they have shown great speed during the 2nd half of the season and I think we will see that trend continue this Friday. Enfinger should probably not be a true “dark horse” because he has 3 wins on the season but he is rarely mentioned as a driver to bet on. However, Enfinger was rock solid in both Kansas races and produced a 3rd place finish in both events. Meanwhile, Ben Rhodes is the true dark horse out of the group and always performs best on the 1.5 mile layouts.

In the realm of fantasy targets, I believe both Derek Krauss ($8,400) and Matt Crafton ($8,700) fall into the value plays in Draftkings this week. I mentioned that Crafton (starting 6th) is one of my top picks and he is the cheapest option of the top 8-10 drivers. Meanwhile, Krauss is starting back in the 14th spot and he has greatly improved through the 2nd half of the season especially on the bigger speedways. Krauss finished 2nd at Darlington just a few weeks ago and has finished top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races on 1.5 mile layouts. Dylan Lupton ($9,300) will be making his 1st start of the season with DGR-Crosley.

The #17 truck has been solid in recent weeks which was made evident with David Ragan behind the wheel. All 3 of Lupton’s top 10 finishes (in just 6 starts) were on 1.5 mile tracks in 2019 including a 10th place finish in the 2019 World of Westgate 200. Therefore, Lupton also has value despite the expensive price tag. Lastly, I will throw out Ryan Truex ($7,700) as a driver to consider this week. Truex has disappointed in his Truck Series opportunities but his price tag is starting to get low enough to warrant consideration. As a driver with legitimate top 15 upside, Truex has solid value this week.

Drivers to Fade

I have been fading Johnny Sauter relentlessly over the last several weeks and the streak finally ended last week at Bristol with Sauter’s 9th place finish. While the performance was not overly impressive, Sauter did end a trend that included finishes outside the top 15 in 6 of the 7 prior races. Part of me believes we could potentially fade Sauter again this week but I am going to restrain from doing so mainly because of the speed of the Thorsport Racing trucks and because Sauter finished 2nd at Vegas in February.

Instead, I am going to pivot back to a few fade candidates that have similarly continued to disappoint. Both Stewart Friesen and Chandler Smith are among my biggest fade options for Friday’s truck race. Smith has continued to struggle at the larger surfaces since becoming age eligible to compete on surfaces over 1 mile in length. Smith has posted just 1 top 10 finish this year and that was last week at Bristol. Expect things to get difficult again for the young KBM driver.

For Stewart Friesen, I still do not believe the #52 team has what they need from an equipment standpoint. It has been publicly documented that the #52 team basically had a complete rebuild over the offseason and they were flat awful through the opening half of the season. Friesen has shown improvement but it has mostly been at the smaller tracks in recent weeks. I think Las Vegas will be a setup that continues to show the #52 team is not where they need to be in terms of raw speed. For that reason, I am fading the #52 with complete confidence.

2020 World of Westgate 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 World of Westgate 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Hill +375 (1.25 units)
Matt Crafton +1000 (.75 unit)
Grant Enfinger +1200 (.5 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Derek Kraus -110 over Chase Purdy (3 units)
Matt Crafton +110 over Christian Eckes (2 units)
Johnny Sauter -110 over Chandler Smith (2 units)