2020 WaWa 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday August 28th, 2020 7:30PM EST at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The Xfinity Series will return to the beach at Daytona for the 3rd this season on Friday for the running of the WaWa 250. Just two weeks ago, the Xfinity Series competed on the road course at Daytona for the first time in series history. Austin Cindric dominated that event in unsurprising fashion. This week, teams and drivers return to the high banks of Daytona’s 2.5 mile traditional surface for exciting superspeedway racing. Unlock recent events, superspeedways yield the most unpredictable style of racing and while that is not ideal for handicapping; nothing beats the allure of superspeedway betting odds. With that being said, we are attacking this week’s races in hopes to capture a big payout! Take a look at our 2020 WaWa 250 race picks for Daytona!

If you are not convinced these races are unpredictable, take into account that 10 different drivers have won the last 10 races at Daytona in the Xfinity Series. That is rare for any of NASCAR’s touring series but especially in the lower series where repeat winners are common. The last 3 winners will all be competing this Friday night stemming from the likes of Michael Annett, Ross Chastain, and Noah Gragson who won most recently in the opener in February. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if any of those drivers can break the streak of new winners and become the first repeat winner in recent memory at Daytona International Speedway.

Betting Strategy for Daytona

Every time the superspeedways come around, I have to get on my soapbox and preach about betting strategy. While I’m sure many are tired of me mentioning betting strategy, maintaining proper strategy for superspeedways is critical towards long-term betting success. Because the draft yields parity, we have many more drivers with higher possibility to earn victories. As a result, we can take advantage of opportunistic betting value and take on more betting targets than normal weeks. The key is to spread out bets that yield sufficient ROI based on the amount of drivers you want to target. Lastly, I highly oppose bettors that want to risk several units on H2H plays this week. H2H plays at the superspeedways are basically coin flips and even when you make the right pick; drivers can easily become an innocent victim to the huge wrecks that are accustomed to this style of racing. Therefore, I am not a fan of throwing unnecessary risk towards H2H match-ups unless you are attempting to set up some potential parlay opportunities. Even then, we should greatly limit our risk towards H2H style match-ups!

Drivers to Target

When discussing betting targets, the majority of my thoughts are subjective opinions based on observation. In reality, we could make the argument for anyone to win this Friday and have a leg to stand on because it’s superspeedway racing. With that being said, I personally like the Kaulig Racing cars of Ross Chastain and Justin Haley as my favorite drivers to target this week. I believe they are the best superspeedway talents in the field and the Kaulig Racing cars proved they were really strong in this race last year when they produced a 1,2,3 finish (Allmendinger later failed inspection). Justin Haley is one of the most underrated superspeedway drivers in the field. Haley won this race in 2018 but was screwed by NASCAR claiming he went under the yellow line as the field came to the checkered flag. Haley also scored an improbable win at Daytona in last year’s Cup Series Coke Zero 400 thanks to Mother Nature. I was shocked to see Haley listed with the overall favorites this week but honestly he deserves the betting respect.

If we look back to February’s NASCAR Racing Experience 300 at Daytona which kicked off the season, Noah Gragson, Chase Briscoe, and Brandon Jones were the most consistent frontrunners in the pack. Each driver held top 15 positions at a 90% rate and consistently ran in the top 10 for the majority of the event. While that does not sound impressive for traditional ovals, it is pretty impressive to stay upfront for such large portions of the race at the superspeedways without getting shuffled to the back a couple of times. If you extract the data back to the last 3 races at Daytona, Noah Gragson and Ross Chastain have been the most consistent drivers at the front of these races with Chastain leading the way.

Dark Horses

I must admit that I was not very impressed with opening odds this week. I was expecting significantly more value on the top 5-10 drivers. Odds have improved slightly over the last 48 hours and I am hoping they will continue to improve for the dark horses as we move closer to start time. With that being said, the best dark horses based on value and probability include betting options like Brandon Jones (+1800) and Riley Herbst (+4000). Both drivers are in great equipment and are talented wheelmen that can get the job done if they find themselves in position in the closing laps. Jones was among the top 2-3 drivers back in February and is getting nearly 2-3 times the odds over the betting favorites which seems like a steal in the realm of value. If you want to take a gamble on the extreme long shots, guys like Alex Labbe, Timmy Hill, and Brandon Brown are extremely underrated drivers that are hovering around the 100 to 1 range. If you can afford the extra risk, a few small risk plays that yield huge reward may be worth the gamble!

Fantasy Targets

Similar to my H2H match-up advice above, I am not a huge fan of fantasy line-ups this week. These races do not favor handicapping and seem to be more of a crapshoot especially for fantasy racing lineups. With that being said, I will still submit a couple of line-ups in hopes to hit a GPP. My strategy for the superspeedway races, in the realm of fantasy, involves place-differential potential. This is one of the few races where you can comfortably leave a large portion of your salary on the table which is usually a suicidal strategy. Instead of using every salary dollar to create the most visually appealing line-up, simply target the drivers that yield the most value based on starting positions and potential ceilings. There is a strong likelihood that the vast majority of fantasy lineups will have one or more drivers that are victims of accidents. Even if that is the case and we are targeting place-differential as our primary incentive, we can still be profitable in the event we have 1-2 drivers that have trouble. With that being said, we still need a luck on our side as well.

My favorite fantasy targets, that yield place-differential value, this week include guys like AJ Allmendinger and Justin Haley among the favorites. Allmendinger is nearly a must-play option from the 34th starting position with minimal downside. Meanwhile, Haley is one of my favorite superspeedway drivers as mentioned above. Furthermore, Haley has one of the worst starting positions out of the typical favorites since the new starting lineup is based on a combination of race finish, points, and fastest race laps from the prior event. Outside of Haley, Harrison Burton is a nice pivot among the favorites. Burton finished 2nd in the season opener at Daytona and has some value from the 12th place position which could be mixed into lineups.

In terms of value drivers, I really like Alex Labbe ($7,800) and Timmy Hill ($7,500) who are priced in the intermediate range of drivers. Both drivers will be starting outside the top 15 with Hill starting all the way back in the 31st position. Labbe has improved in every superspeedway race and finished 10th back in February. Meanwhile, Timmy Hill finished 3rd back in the February race and while I am sure that seems like a fluke; Hill has actually recorded 4 top 10 finishes in his last 8 starts in the Xfinity Series at Daytona. Considering the value and price of both drivers, we can build fantasy line-ups around both drivers with confidence.

Draftkings WaWa 250 Optimal Lineup

2020 WaWa 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +800 (1 unit)
Michael Annett +1800 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1800 (.75 unit)
Anthony Alfredo +2600 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +3000 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +4000 (.5 unit)
Brandon Brown +8000 (.25 unit)
Alex Labbe +10000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Noah Gragson +140 over Ross Chastain
Team 2 – Open for Coke Zero Sugar 400
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Daniel Hemric +130 over Justin Allgaier
Team 2 – Open for Coke Zero Sugar 400
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD