2020 Vankor 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 18th, 2020 8:00PM EST at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

After a rain shortened race last week at Kentucky that helped Sheldon Creed secure the 1st win of his career, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will step into the main spotlight Saturday night at Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Vankor 350. The Truck Series will be the feature event of Saturday’s double-header with the Xfinity Series. Perhaps more importantly, Cup Series star Kyle Busch will be participating in both of Saturday’s events as the primary betting favorite as he attempts to secure some Texas hardware. However, there are plenty of advantageous betting odds outside of Busch that deserve consideration. We discuss all options and provide our 2020 Vankor 350 race picks for Texas!

Last week, I nailed my opening bet in the Truck Series with Sheldon Creed at 18 to 1 odds thanks to a little bit of fortunate rain last week at Kentucky. However, I really thought all bets were impressive in last week’s Truck Series race at Kentucky. Last week, I broke down some of the loop data trends from the 1.5 mile venues that have taken place thus far in the Truck Series and I really believed that helped paint a solid baseline of expectations. If you look back at last week’s race, my betting picks had 5 drivers in the top 7 positions which proves that we were in good position even without the rain.

As we move forward to yet another 1.5 mile speedway at Texas this week, I believe we have to keep in mind some of the trends that we examined last week. Before I review individual targets, let me simplify things by stating GMS Racing and Thorsport Racing are showing the most organizational speed at the 1.5 mile venues. Last week at Kentucky, GMS Racing drivers Sheldon Creed, Zane Smith, and Brett Moffitt all posted average driver ratings above 116 which is extremely impressive for a trio of trucks. Furthermore, Ben Rhodes, Matt Crafton, and Johnny Sauter secured 3 of the top 4 finishing positions and nearly averaged a 100 rating for the cream of the Thorsport Racing brigade. Sure there were other drivers that were strong from other organizations namely Austin Hill and Christian Eckes but the overall organizational speed can be given to GMS Racing followed by Thorsport Racing from a strength standpoint.

Racing Expectations

Obviously Kyle Busch is the most talented driver in the field this week with wins in 2 of his 4 Truck Series starts this year. Both of Rowdy’s victories were produced on 1.5 mile surfaces at Las Vegas and Homestead. In fact, Busch has only competed on 1.5 mile surfaces in the Truck Series this year with a runner-up at Charlotte and a 21st place finish at Atlanta in the other two starts. For this week’s race at Texas, Busch is obviously the justifiable favorite but I don’t believe the advantage is quite as marginal as the odds suggest. Texas Motor Speedway has a lot of grip. Similar to last week’s race at Kentucky, track position will be important meanwhile passing will be time consuming and difficult even for faster trucks as they strive to move forward.

Just looking at last year’s Vankor 350 race at Texas, Busch had a difficult time getting out front in the early laps. Once he was able to get the lead, clean air proved to provide a big advantage and Busch was able to lead 97 laps in route to victory. Still, the restarts were very close and could have unfolded differently for Busch on multiple occasions. The reason I am pointing out these facts is because that was a year ago when I believe the KBM trucks were stronger. I believe some of the teams like GMS and Thorsports have gained ground on the KBM trucks which leads me to believe we could have a bigger battle at the front of the field Saturday night. Simply put, I would rather take my chances with the drivers and odds behind Busch for a chance at another big payday!

Drivers to Target

If you don’t mind the strategy of pivoting against Busch in hopes for a semi-upset, my favorite betting targets revolve around the GMS Trucks. Sheldon Creed was really strong at Texas in both races last year and has shown a clear trend of strength at 1.5 mile venues. Meanwhile, I think we can also throw Zane Smith and Brett Moffitt into that mix this week. If you remember, I actually faded Moffitt last week because I felt like the #23 team lacked some of the raw speed compared to the other top-tier drivers. I thought the team did a better job last week at Kentucky granted I’m sure the clean air helped in the early stages. Therefore, I am cautiously optimistic that Moffitt can back up last week’s solid run though I am still not keen on the betting odds for the #23.

From a betting standpoint, Zane Smith, Matt Crafton, and Johnny Sauter have appetizing odds that deserve consideration. I have raved about Smith’s talent and he continues to impress each week. If the rookie keeps running around the top 5, he is going to break-through and win a race similar to the way teammate Sheldon Creed’s did last week at Kentucky. Meanwhile with the return of speed from the Thorsport Racing trucks, Sauter and Crafton are beginning to inch closer to ending their winless streaks. For the first time in a while, I have started giving Crafton more attention because the #88 truck is showing considerable speed at the 1.5 mile venues and I believe he remains a sharp H2H option for the 2nd straight week. Both Sauter and Crafton have been excellent at Texas throughout their careers. Sauter (5) trails Todd Bodine (6) by just one win for the most victories in series history at Texas and Crafton is also a two-time winner. With the help of inflated odds due to Busch’s participation, both drivers should be given heavy consideration this week.

Before we move away from drivers to target, let’s quickly discuss another trio involving Christian Eckes, Austin Hill, and Ben Rhodes that definitely deserve respect for their chances at victory. Austin Hill has been the best driver on 1.5 mile tracks statistically this season though his odds are a bit saturated. I felt like Rhodes was likely the best truck at Kentucky and the #99 team seems to be gaining momentum in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Christian Eckes remains the best of the KBM full-time drivers and has shown enough speed to be within striking distance. For this particular group of drivers, it really comes down to betting odds. At a pure speed track with a lot of grip, I think Hill is a bit overrated because he is a much better driver at the low grip/high wear surfaces. Rhodes and Eckes are both legitimate options if you can get a solid betting number! One last driver that deserves an outside shot is Justin Haley who will be making his 1st Truck Series start since 2018. Haley will be behind the wheel of the #24 for GMS Racing which has shown speed this season. As a former Texas winner, Haley definitely has the ability to run well.

Drivers to Fade

Last week at Kentucky, we nailed match-ups against both of our fade targets. In both instances, we targeted circumstantial fades going against Brett Moffitt who started on the pole and also fading Tyler Ankrum following his 2019 victory at Kentucky. This week I don’t have any situational fades unless something changes once starting lineups are announced.

Instead, I believe the best fade options involve the Niece Motorsports trucks. I simply don’t believe those trucks have the raw aerodynamic speed that is needed to run upfront at Texas. With that being said, I never like fading Ross Chastain because his driving talent often overachieves compared to his equipment. As a result, the better drivers to fade involve Ryan Truex and Ty Majeski this week.

Draftkings Vankor 350 Optimal Lineup

2020 Vankor 350 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Hill +880 (1 unit)
Christian Eckes +1350 (1 unit)
Brett Moffitt +1750 (.75 unit)
Justin Haley +1750 (.75 unit)
Ben Rhodes +3300 (.5 unit)
Matt Crafton +4400 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -140 wins Vankor 350
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Matt Crafton -115 over Tyler Ankrum (3 units)
Brett Moffitt +100 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Justin Haley -120 over Johnny Sauter (2 units)