2020 UNOH 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Thursday September 17th, 7:45PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the 2nd Thursday in a row, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will take center stage to kick off the weekend with short-track racing. Last week, Grant Enfinger cashed at 22 to 1 odds with an impressive rally in the closing laps at Richmond. This Thursday the Truck Series returns for more exciting short-track action at “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile.” Unlike Xfinity and Cup Series teams that competed at Bristol back in May, this will be the Truck Series first race at Bristol this season when the green flag waves for the UNOH 200. Additionally when you take into account this will be the first race in the Truck Series playoffs, we should be on the verge of an exciting night of truck racing. As we prepare for a full weekend at Bristol, we kick things off with our 2020 UNOH 200 race picks!

While this will be the 2nd straight short-track race, there is a huge difference between this week’s racing at Bristol compared to last week’s races at Richmond. From the driver seat, driving styles at Richmond and Bristol are completely different. Richmond requires drivers to roll the corner and ease back into the gas to save rear tires. Meanwhile, Bristol is a track with significant banking where drivers attack the corners equally on entry and exit. The speeds are much higher around Bristol’s steep banking which causes a dirt track feel where throttle force causes the back-end of cars/trucks to be extremely loose and on the verge of spinning out. So while we can look at last week’s races at Richmond as a “similar” track in size, the style of racing is completely different from the driver seat which is very important towards handicapping.

The closest stylistic comparison to Bristol, from tracks raced on this season, would include Dover International Speedway where teams competed a little over 3 weeks ago. For those that remember, Zane Smith won the KDI Office Technology 200 back at Dover over the likes of Matt Crafton and Brett Moffitt. The victory was Smith’s 2nd of the season and he looked quite comfortable on the difficult one-mile layout. Since the win at Dover, Smith has posted several mediocre finishes of 7th, 16th, and 11th over the last 3 races. However, this should be a track where Smith can rejoin the lead group and potentially challenge for another win. While we cannot expect mirrored results from Dover, this should be a bounce back opportunity for the rookie to start the playoffs after several mediocre performances.

Betting Strategy

We had a strong betting run at Richmond last week with nearly 30 units of profit. Luckily, things went our way and we avoided bad luck. Admittedly, Richmond is a really strong handicapping track because passing is not too difficult because of the heavy fall-off in lap times. Picking drivers to run upfront at Bristol is not necessarily a big challenge however getting things to fall your way can be difficult. Unlike Richmond, Bristol’s half-mile layout is very dependent upon track position because passing can be extremely taxing. As a result, simple mistakes on pit road or strategy calls late in the race can easily shake up the running order. For that reason, I have to promote a conservative strategy this week because those late race shake ups are possible.

Betting Targets

I mentioned earlier that Zane Smith should have an opportunity to bounce back this week compared to performances over the last few races. With that being said, I’m not ready to put Smith into the overall “favorites” category. I believe there are several drivers that have true “Bristol” talent that are capable of winning this race under the right conditions. Johnny Sauter has been excellent at Bristol in recent years and has a victory as recently as 2018. Chandler Smith nearly won this race last year in his 1st Bristol start with a runner-up finish. Lastly, Brett Moffitt has historically been one of the better short-track drivers in the Truck Series and is the defending winner of the UNOH 200 which warrants consideration.

The problem with the aforementioned drivers is that they are not appetizing based on current form as this Thursday race approaches. Moffitt is the only driver in that trio that has shown winning speed but he has failed to find victory lane all season. Last week’s races at Richmond were a perfect match for Moffitt’s driving style yet he was still unable to get the job done. Meanwhile, Sauter and Chandler Smith have not even been competitive for the most part all season with disappointment falling on a near weekly basis.

Instead, my betting focus is targeting guys like Sheldon Creed and Thorsport Racing talents like Matt Crafton and Grant Enfinger. Both Crafton and Enfinger have a lot of Bristol experience on their resume. More importantly, they have been performing extremely well in recent weeks which gives both drivers another great opportunity to find victory lane. For Sheldon Creed, I just like his style for the type of racing that Bristol produces. Creed has been solid on the short tracks and is a driver worth targeting if he can be in position in the closing laps.

Dark Horses and Fantasy Targets

The parity in the Truck Series is perhaps at an all-time high because we rarely know who are true favorites from week to week. I mentioned earlier that strategy could definitely play into how this race unfolds and if that happens it would not be shocking to see a surprise winner in victory lane. There are a couple live dark horses that I have on my radar this week that includes the likes of Stewart Friesen, Todd Gilliland, and Sam Mayer that should provide betting and fantasy value. Friesen has had a tough year but the #52 team is starting to find speed. The good news is that you don’t need a ton of raw speed at Bristol but rather a good talent behind the wheel. This type of racing aligns with Friesen’s dirt track resume and he has produced finishes of 4th and 2nd in his last two starts at Bristol.

Meanwhile both Todd Gilliland and Sam Mayer are also on my radar as potential breakout drivers this week. For clarity, Sam Mayer is one of my favorite fantasy picks this week because he has considerable upside for his asking price. Mayer swept both Bristol races in the K&N Series last year and proved at Gateway that he is an excellent short-track talent. I believe Mayer could get into the mix towards the front of the field and for that reason I believe he yields H2H and fantasy value. Lastly, Todd Gilliland is another driver that I am cautiously optimistic towards. Gilliland had his best performances of the year back at Dover and Gateway a few weeks back. After a few disappointing finishes at Darlington and Richmond, Gilliland provides an excellent bounce back opportunity at a track more suited to his style. If Gilliland’s quality of opponents in the form of H2H match-ups weakens as a result of recent finishes, he could warrant betting consideration.

Drivers to Fade

Back at Dover, I made a headline entitled “fading the favorites.” Austin Hill, Christian Eckes, and Chandler Smith were the top 3 betting favorites at the time and I mentioned that none of those drivers had the proven resume nor skill set to warrant the betting odds they were getting at a place like Dover. Following 200 miles at the Monster Mile, Hill was the only driver of the trio to finish inside the top 10 with an 8th place finish. The reason I bring up that point is because I believe this is another similar scenario where the overall betting favorites are not justified with the odds they are receiving.

Though Hill is one of the better drivers in the series and always a risky fade option, he has run poorly at Bristol throughout his career. In fact, Hill’s best finish in 4 career starts is 10th and he has earned just 1 stage point in the last 3 starts which is mind-boggling. Bristol simply does not fit his skill set and that makes Hill a potential fade candidate again this week especially among the betting favorites.

Other fade candidates include Christian Eckes and Johnny Sauter who both have given bettors plenty of reason to fade in recent races. I mentioned Sauter the last two weeks as a driver to fade and will continue to list him until we see a trend reversal. So far fading Sauter has been flawless as the #13 continues to experience serious issues from week to week. For Eckes, it is a very similar scenario like it was at Dover. Eckes has never competed at Bristol in any of the major NASCAR series yet is being treated as one of the betting favorites. It simply does not make sense for a driver who is clearly better on bigger tracks. Therefore, the #18 is one of my favorite fade candidates this Thursday!

2020 UNOH 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 UNOH 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Sheldon Creed +475 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +1000 (.75 unit)
Matt Crafton +1600 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +2000 (.5 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Stewart Friesen -115 over Johnny Sauter (2 units)
Grant Enfinger -130 over Christian Eckes (2 units)