2020 UNOH 188 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday August 15th, 3:00PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway Road Course
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow afternoon the Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to tackle the Daytona International Speedway Road Course for the first time with the running of the UNOH 188. Not only will tomorrow’s race be the first at the Daytona road course for the Xfinity Series but it will be the first race among NASCAR’s top 3 touring series. Both the Truck and Cup Series will get the opportunity to race on the road course on Sunday. As a result, all eyes will be heavily focused on the Xfinity Series on Saturday to see the first taste of action on this new layout. Take a look as we provide the expectations for Saturday’s race and provide our 2020 UNOH 188 race picks for Daytona!

Luckily, the Xfinity Series has competed in a few road course races in recent weeks which may lessen the threat of chaos as drivers take the green flag without a single lap of practice on this 3.61 mile road course. However, Mother Nature may provide an added layer of excitement. Heavy rain is expected to fall at Daytona on Saturday and will likely carry into Sunday. Similar to last week’s race at Road America, we could potentially see the “rain tires” for the 2nd straight week in the Xfinity Series and that is surely going to spice up the racing action in what is already a rather eccentric event. However, we still have some opportunity to capitalize if we can weather the storm and have a little luck fall our way.

Betting Strategy

In my Daytona Road Course Preview, I mentioned that nobody knows how this weekend’s races will unfold. We have drivers competing on a completely new track for the first time without any practice and now we have the threat of rain to throw into the equation. I chose to completely forego the Truck Series race this weekend due to the lack of odds value combined with the completely uncertain circumstances for Truck Series competitors who are not accustomed to road course racing. Even data around the Cup Series drivers on road courses, I still think we can make a similar argument for the Cup Series as this will be the first road course race of the season on Sunday.

The good news is that the UNOH 188 may be the best potential handicapping race of the weekend. Not only have we seen the Xfinity Series on several road courses in recent weeks but we have also seen them compete in the rain just one week ago. Perhaps we are more prepared for the Xfinity Series race this weekend than any other on the schedule. Still, I cannot ignore the circumstances and must yield to a cautious betting strategy this week. All of my plays have been downsized to limit overall risk and I would encourage bettors to follow suit.

Drivers to Target

Without question, Austin Cindric enters this week as the guy to beat. Cindric has won 4 of the last 5 races including last week at Road America where he led the most laps in route to his 3rd career win on road courses in the last two seasons in the Xfinity Series. I mentioned in the Daytona Road Course preview, that a large portion of the 3.61 course utilizes the traditional 2.5 mile layout at Daytona. As a result, I believe we have to take speed into account as well this week and that greatly favors the #22 team who has undeniably been the fastest car in the garage for the last two months of racing. Therefore, Cindric remains the driver to beat going into Saturday.

In terms of betting odds, I really loved the value on both Justin Haley (+2000) and Ross Chastain (+2800) this week. I jumped on both drivers early, in our email plays, this week. Haley is probably one of the most underrated road course drivers in the field and for some reason Chastain continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers after running upfront throughout the majority of last week’s race at Road America. Additionally, I would point out the fact that both Haley and Chastain were really strong on the rain tires during the 2nd stage of the Henry 180 at Road America for the short-period all cars were on the rain tires. With so much rain in the forecast, I believe Haley and Chastain’s value only gets better!

Lastly, I would put Chase Briscoe and Noah Gragson both in the bucket of deserving betting respect. Gragson has shown some really good road course skills and I believe this layout will benefit his driving style where you can be really aggressive in the braking zones. Meanwhile, Briscoe proved his skills are diverse by winning the first road course event at Indianapolis several weeks back. Briscoe was also really strong last week and is simply always among the leaders. Obviously, I am not a huge fan of Briscoe’s betting odds but he remains a candidate to run upfront and challenge for the victory.

Drivers to Fade

The top driver I have on my fade list going into Saturday entails the driver of the #7 in Justin Allgaier. Road course racing has been one of Allgaier’s strengths during his career with 3 of his 11 career wins coming on road course venues. However, Allgaier is statistically having the worst season during his lengthy tenure with J.R. Motorsports. After an extremely disappointing performance at Road America last week, I believe we have a prime opportunity to fade Allgaier especially when you consider the potential rainy conditions that will cripple his ceiling. Since Allgaier is commonly paired against other top drivers, tomorrow’s UNOH 188 is a race where we can confidently fade the #7 car.

Another driver that I would also fade with heavy confidence includes the #19 of Brandon Jones. It is no secret that Jones struggles at the road courses but it is also pretty surprising just how significant the struggles have been through the years. In 17 career starts on road course venues, Jones has 0 top 5 finishes and just 3 top 10 finishes in his Xfinity Series career. The vast majority of those results have been disastrous which must be taken into betting consideration. Currently, I have not seen any match-ups with Brandon Jones listed but I am sure they will become available on race day. Therefore if we can find a decent driver to fade the #19, I will jump on the action.

Fantasy Targets

I hit the main event win in one of my personal lineups for last week’s race at Road America and it was mainly due to anchoring my lineup with 2 heavy hitters and then targeted the remaining value of my line-up towards place-differential. I am looking for a relatively similar strategy this week and my optimal line-up will focus heavily towards place-differential points in what could become a rather chaotic race. With so much rain expected, I believe the road course “ringers” will perform better than normal. Therefore, guys like Jade Buford ($7,500) and Myatt Snider ($8,100) provide solid fantasy value. Snider has run well in recent weeks but has failed to earn the finishes. Meanwhile, Buford has posted top 20 finishes in both road course races this season and could have some solid value from the 32nd starting position.

There are a few other names starting at the back that have potential but have elevated price tags. Brandon Gdovic will be starting 37th and posted a top 15 finish at the Indianapolis road course in his only prior start of the year. Earl Bamber will be making his 1st start in Xfinity Series competition. Bamber will be behind the wheel of the #21 car for RCR which has shown a lot of speed this year. The 20 year old driver has a ton of road course experience despite his age. Despite the ($9,400) price tag, I would not be surprised if Bamber produces a quality run especially if the conditions get nasty.

My anchors this week will surround Justin Haley ($9,200) and Austin Cindric ($11,000) who I believe to be the best road course talents in the field. Multiple line-ups could probably pivot with Ross Chastain, Chase Briscoe, and Noah Gragson at lower frequencies. If you are wanting a few potential flier options, consider Bayley Currey ($5,100) who has posted top 25 finishes in 4 of the last 5 events. Currey has shown decent speed at the road course tracks but has been involved in misfortune at both events. Lastly, B.J McLeod has some value at just $5,700 from the 33rd starting position. McLeod will likely have low ownership this week and may be the perfect flier option to yield some value leverage.

2020 UNOH 188 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 UNOH 188 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +600 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +1400 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +2000 (.5 unit) *early play
Ross Chastain +2800 (.5 unit) *early play
Harrison Burton +6600 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Noah Gragson +100 over Justin Allgaier
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Justin Haley -130 over Daniel Hemric (2 units) *early play
Michael Annett -105 over Brandon Jones (2 units)