2020 Unhinged 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday June 20th, 5:30PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will hit the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway for some of the most exciting racing in motorsports when the green flag is waved for the Unhinged 300. Like the Cup Series, this week’s race at Talladega marks the 2nd visit to a superspeedway track in 2020. These races are difficult to calculate due to the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing. Luckily, odds makers understand the difficulty towards predicting these races and provide a lot of value for bettors willing to roll the dice. Therefore, let’s put our best thoughts together and take advantage of extremely valuable odds with our 2020 Unhinged 300 race picks!

Back in February at Daytona, Noah Gragson earned his 1st career Xfinity Series victory by winning the NASCAR Racing Experience 300. The win marked the 4th victory in the last 6 races at Daytona for J.R. Motorsports drivers who have built a reputation for having strong superspeedway cars. J.R. Motorsports has added a pair of victories in the last 7 races at Talladega and will seek their 3rd victory on Saturday with a great cast of superspeedway talents in Justin Allgaier, Noah Gragson, Jeb Burton, and Michael Annett.

If you go back to the race in February at Daytona, we saw surprise names like Timmy Hill (3rd), Brandon Brown (7th), and Ray Black Jr (8th) all get into the mix in the closing laps. The exciting part of superspeedway racing is that anybody can win one of these races. The draft is the ultimate equalizer that can bring inferior drivers and equipment into the mix under the right circumstances. As a result of this parity, handicapping superspeedway races are nearly impossible. Even if you pick the best drivers and cars for this type of racing, there is no guarantee they will survive the chaos of 300 miles of bumper to bumper racing or if they do survive there is not any guarantee they will be best positioned for a victory in the final laps. From a betting standpoint, all we can do is target the individuals that have continually shown a unique skill for finding the front at superspeedway races and ensure each bet produces sufficient ROI to overcome this risk for this style of racing.

Who are the favorites?

Though Talladega is the ultimate wildcard stylistically, there is still a strong chance that one of the top drivers in the Xfinity Series brings home the checkered flag. If you look down the list of previous winners at Talladega in recent years, you will see names like Tyler Reddick, Aric Almirola, Elliott Sadler, and numerous Cup Series stars that have emerged victorious at Talladega Superspeedway. I know bettors love to target the sizable underdogs at Talladega which is justifiable at times due to the enormous betting odds you can get on certain drivers. However, history also tells us that the top driving talents typically emerge at the front in these races. Therefore, our betting lineups should have a mixture of both long shots and favorable talents to give us the best possibility at victory.

In terms of the best superspeedway racers that will be racing on Saturday, I believe that Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, and Justin Haley are your most prominent drivers for this style of racing. Obviously, you can make betting arguments for Noah Gragson, Chase Briscoe, and nearly anyone. After all, anybody can win at Talladega. However if you look at the drivers that consistently run at the front during their careers at superspeedway races including recent races in the Xfinity Series, Cindric, Chastain, and Haley are among the elite talents.

In last year’s Firecracker 250, the Kaulig Racing cars of Chastain, Haley, and A.J. Allmendinger finished 1-3 before Allmendinger was disqualified in post-race inspection. That race still sticks in my head because the 3 drivers worked really well together. With the same trio returning this week, can we expect more teamwork at the front of the field? Obviously, it’s harder to work together for long periods of time at Talladega due to the width of the track and the lack of ability to block runs from trailing cars. However, the group of drivers from Kaulig Racing is talented and has shown the ability to get the job done before at this style of racing which deserves serious consideration.

Unhinged 300 Dark Horses

Obviously it is not Talladega unless we talk about the dark horses or long shots that provide the homerun betting potential. I believe we have several drivers that are worthy of legitimate betting attention this week that will likely fly under the radar. The group of drivers that I have pegged as legitimate dark horses include Jeb Burton, Alex Labbe, and Ryan Sieg. I nearly took Burton at openers but I thought his 14 to 1 odds could potentially improve. Burton has the luxury of driving one of the prominent superspeedway cars from J.R. Motorsports again this week after a really strong run back at Daytona.

Meanwhile Alex Labbe and Ryan Sieg have both provided solid results in recent superspeedway races in the Xfinity Series. Labbe posted a 90.5 rating in the NASCAR Experience 300 at Daytona which included 19 laps at the front of the field. For Sieg, the RSS Racing team continues to show speed each week which is reportedly a result of additional funding. We have seen Sieg outperform expectations this season and Myatt Snider has provided similar results in the #93 in recent weeks for the team. For Sieg, he has been really solid at both Daytona and Talladega. The driver of the #39 has averaged a 90 rating in his last 3 starts between Daytona and Talladega which should boost his value going into Saturday.

Fantasy and H2H Bets

To be completely straightforward, I am not a fan of betting H2H match-ups or participating in fantasy entries at the superspeedways. These races are not only so unpredictable but even when you make a correct choice a driver can easily become a victim in an accident that is outside of their control. Talladega is notorious for huge multi-car wrecks which can completely wipe out a fantasy lineup or turn a H2H match-up on its roof. For this week’s race, I may take 1-2 small 1 unit plays as parlay starters in Saturday’s Unhinged 300. My only purpose for this strategy is to potentially have a parlay on its final leg on Sunday. If that happens, it really opens up the door to provide my betting lineup some diversity among favorites and value plays. I can potentially close out that parlay with 1-2 favorites on Sunday without eating too much into my overall risk yielding a much better opportunity at victory. For fantasy purposes, I am going to produce an “optimal” lineup below which is mostly focused on place-differential potential and some of the discussion points above about drivers that typically yield good results at this style of racing. Still, I use the term “optimal” very loosely because this race is obviously a guessing game to a certain extent.

2020 Unhinged 300 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Unhinged 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Haley +1000 (1 unit) Odds courtesy of BetOnline
Austin Cindric +1100 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1400 (.75 unit)
Jeb Burton +1600 (.5 unit)
Michael Annett +2000 (.5 unit) Odds courtesy of BetOnline
Riley Herbst +3000 (.5 unit) *early play
Ryan Sieg +5000 (.25 unit) *early play
Myatt Snider +6600 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Riley Herbst +155 over Justin Haley
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD