2020 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Thursday September 10th, 8:10PM (EST) at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the first time in 15 years, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series returns to Richmond Raceway with the running of the ToyotaCare 250 this Thursday. The Truck Series will be the first event at Richmond this week which will feature night races from Thursday-Saturday among NASCAR’s top series. After a similar successful return to Darlington last week for the first time in nearly a decade, the Truck Series will have the opportunity to provide some exciting short-track racing and one of the best short track venues in the sport. Let’s discuss what to expect for the Truck Series return to Richmond and break down our 2020 ToyotaCare 250 race picks!

For starters, Richmond Raceway is a ¾ mile D shaped oval with relatively flat banking. Despite being known as a short-track, Richmond Raceway’s surface yields significant tire wear which will make long-run speed extremely important for all series running this week. While the Truck Series has not raced at Richmond in many years, we have seen recent competition at Gateway just two weeks ago. Turns 3 and 4 at Gateway are the most similar comparison to Richmond’s ¾ mile layout that the Truck Series has competed on this season and we could also go back to previous year’s results at Iowa to formulate an idea of the drivers that should run well. Iowa was designed to mimic racing at Richmond Raceway and that is something to keep in mind this week when we observe historical data.

Favorites Discussion

When I combine all handicapping angles that I researched this week, I kept coming back to Brett Moffitt as my favorite driver to score his 1st victory of the season this Thursday. Moffitt has been so close in recent weeks with two runner-up finishes in the last 4 starts. Moffitt finished 3rd and Dover and then 2nd at Gateway which were the only races on short-tracks in the Truck Series this season. Stylistically, Richmond provides a really good opportunity for Moffitt who is really good at these types of tracks. As a result, Moffitt is my leading contender to take down the victory in the ToyotaCare 250.

If I consider the same handicapping angles and combine recent momentum into the equation, I would have to mention the likes of Sheldon Creed and Austin Hill into the equation. Both drivers have been rock solid in recent weeks. Hill has posted back to back 3rd place finishes and remains of the series’ top talents. Meanwhile, I have made the comment on several occasions that Creed is quickly becoming one of the Truck Series’ biggest talents. Both drivers deserve legitimate respect this weekend. Personally, I just wished their betting odds were slightly better than the 5.5 to 1 range that is currently being offered.

For the remaining betting favorites, both Christian Eckes and Zane Smith are among the heavy favorites this week. Smith has scored two surprising wins this season at Michigan and Dover with flashes of greatness on a near weekly basis. Meanwhile, Eckes continues to produce solid results from an overall standpoint but they are not the type of results that warrant 5 to 1 odds every week. Let’s not forget, Eckes is still searching for his 1st career victory and has been listed among the favorites for almost an entire year. I personally do not believe the flat surfaces fit Eckes’ driving strength. I’m not necessarily calling for a fade against the #18 but I don’t believe Eckes will be in contention for the victory. For Smith, I believe his ceiling is higher but I also don’t think this is the best track for his style either.

Betting Targets

There are a few drivers that are live dark horses this week with valuable betting odds that have piqued my interest. The two drivers that deserve betting attention at favorable odds include the likes of Todd Gilliland and Grant Enfinger. Gilliland has performed well at the short-tracks throughout his career and was the dominant truck at Gateway just two weeks ago. Gilliland should have won that race but was punted by Sheldon Creed while fighting for the lead. I think Gilliland is a live dog this Thursday and I believe he should also be targeted in H2H betting match-ups against drivers in his odds range.

For Grant Enfinger, I am not nearly as confident compared to my expectations for Gilliland. However, I would not be surprised to see Enfinger produce a quality performance this Thursday. If you remember, I was really high on Enfinger two weeks ago at Gateway because the flatter surfaces have been one of his strengths throughout his career. At Gateway, Enfinger never got to show much of his skill set because they were battling mechanical issues early in that event. Enfinger still rebounded to score an 8th place finish and I think he has a higher ceiling this Thursday if they can avoid unforeseen issues again. Lastly, don’t overlook Sam Mayer this week in H2H match-ups as he returns to the #24 truck. Mayer had his best performance of his young career at Gateway and he has shown excellent short-track results going back to his ARCA days.

Drivers to Fade

In the last few weeks, I have listed Chandler Smith as a confident fade for every race and it has been successful. In 5 starts this season, Smith has failed to crack the top 20 and will likely continue to be a fade target until things change. For this week’s race, I am going to refrain from fading Smith and would probably encourage bettors to do the same. Smith’s struggles in 2020 are due to multiple reasons. He is dealing with a new crew chief and he has been making debut type starts at larger tracks since he has finally reached the age requirement to compete at tracks over 1 mile in length. While the struggles have been undeniable, Richmond provides a good opportunity for Smith to turn things around. He has been really good at the short-tracks and for that reason, we will give Smith a break this week.

The drivers that do enter my fade list this week include both Johnny Sauther and Christian Eckes. I debated putting Eckes in my fade mentions this week but I just can’t justify his status with the other betting favorites like Moffitt, Creed, and Hill. Eckes has not come close to matching those drivers performance marks and I believe this will be a tough track for the driver of the #18. For Johnny Sauter, I am full on-board with fading Sauter until we see a trend reversal. I thought Sauter had really bad luck early in the year but the #13 team simply have failed to perform recently. Sauter had experience on his side last week at Darlington yet could not crack the top 10 the entire afternoon. Sauter has failed to finish inside the top 15 in 5 of his last 6 starts. While some of that can be attributed to bad luck, neither the driver nor the team has shown any signs of yielding performance to warrant a trend reversal!

Fantasy Targets

For fantasy options this Thursday night, I have made it clear that I like Brett Moffitt among the favorites. However, David Ragan is an interesting fantasy option at $10,400 after a strong run last week at Darlington. Ragan was always solid at Richmond in the Cup Series and has some value from the 21st starting position. Both Zane Smith ($9,000) and Todd Gilliland ($9,200) are solid plays to pivot against the typical favorites. Both drivers have legitimate top 5 potential and are the cheapest of the favorites listed this week.

For value purposes, Sam Mayer ($8,800) and Trevor Bayne ($7,900) are drivers that could easily return value. Both Grant Enfinger ($8,300) and Stewart Friesen ($8,100) deserve consideration as value options but they are starting towards the front of the field potentially limiting their upside. For Mayer, he was excellent at Gateway a few weeks ago and I believe he has the higher ceiling of the two drivers. However, Bayne is an equally intriguing option at a pretty affordable price tag. After a disappointing week at Darlington plagued by mechanical issues, perhaps Bayne can bounce back in a strong way this week. At $7,200, Carson Hocevar provides some salary relief as well this week. Hocevar has been solid for Niece Motorsports with back to back top 15 finishes. Due to a 30th place starting spot, Hocevar could be a driver that easily returns value with low ownership!

2020 ToyotaCare 250 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Brett Moffitt +400 (1.5 units)
Todd Gilliland +1800 (.75 unit)
Grant Enfinger +2200 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Sheldon Creed +125 over Christian Eckes
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Brett Moffitt -130 over Christian Eckes (3 units)
David Ragan -115 over Derek Kraus (2 units)
Chandler Smith -115 over Johnny Sauter (2 units)