2020 Super Start Batteries 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Thursday July 23rd, 7:30PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Unlike most weekends, NASCAR’s Cup Series will have the luxury of kicking off the racing action this week when the green flag waves for the Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway. This Thursday night’s visit to Kansas will mark the 4th race in the last 12 days for the Cup Series. With the lone exception of last Wednesday’s All-Star Race at Bristol, this will be the 3rd consecutive points event at a 1.5 mile speedway following wild finishes at both Kentucky Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway. With another night of wild racing on the horizon, take a look at our expectations as we present the 2020 Super Start Batteries 400 race picks for Kansas!

Despite a recent run of bad luck, we have 4 opportunistic betting opportunities over the next 3 days with all touring series in action this weekend at Kansas including the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series that will hold back to back races on Friday and Saturday. Fortunately this weekend’s races at Kansas should not be too surprising from a performance standpoint. I mentioned in my early betting preview that Kansas Speedway is the perfect hybrid of the last two races between Kentucky and Texas based on track surface, tire wear, banking, and raw aerodynamic speed. If you missed that preview, I encourage everyone to look over the loop data statistics compiled over the last two weeks because I expect those performance trends to continue into Kansas this Thursday.

Kansas Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	119.4	9.2	6.2	8.6	6.6	31	184	215	296	1349
Kyle Busch	109.1	8.6	10.6	11.0	6.8	53	264	133	113	1346
Chase Elliott	106.1	18.0	11.6	4.6	8.4	77	278	60	93	1349
Martin Truex Jr	103.9	12.4	12.4	6.6	10.6	-5	205	93	137	1348
Ryan Blaney	97.1	12.4	5.0	20.0	8.4	-22	157	94	68	1322
Erik Jones	96.9	10.0	13.6	11.2	10.6	49	307	61	0	1279
Brad Keselowski	94.6	5.6	8.2	10.6	11.6	-24	215	65	58	1349
Denny Hamlin	94.2	10.6	11.4	8.2	11.6	30	183	38	158	1347
Kurt Busch	91.7	11.6	13.4	7.8	12.6	24	207	11	7	1348
Alex Bowman	90.8	12.5	14.8	10.0	12.5	19	190	44	70	1081
Joey Logano	90.2	17.2	16.2	12.8	12.4	62	148	48	110	1348
Clint Bowyer	87.1	15.8	12.4	12.0	11.0	37	235	17	12	1349
Aric Almirola	85.4	15.6	18.4	12.6	13.4	7	195	13	0	1346
Jimmie Johnson	77.8	16.2	20.8	13.6	15.6	-27	207	15	0	1344
William Byron	73.0	14.5	20.0	24.0	18.5	35	132	22	5	854
Chris Buescher	72.9	19.0	17.8	15.8	17.2	-13	133	2	10	1333
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	72.9	17.6	18.2	17.4	17.4	-31	119	16	23	1336
Austin Dillon	71.7	16.6	21.8	15.8	18.0	-8	125	4	4	1347
Matt Kenseth	70.9	19.0	18.5	36.5	17.0	11	37	6	0	447
Daniel Suarez	64.6	13.8	18.6	26.8	20.6	-45	104	19	6	1259
Ryan Newman	63.3	15.0	22.6	28.2	21.4	-57	122	2	0	1063
Ryan Preece	58.5	25.0	24.5	18.5	24.0	12	34	1	0	546
Matt DiBenedetto	53.5	29.0	22.6	23.6	23.6	-2	50	5	0	1332
Michael McDowell	52.4	23.8	17.6	23.0	24.6	-55	52	14	0	1337
Ty Dillon	51.4	29.0	25.2	25.8	25.8	-24	43	1	0	1322
Bubba Wallace	51.2	16.8	22.8	28.3	25.8	-56	30	5	2	1057
Corey LaJoie	44.1	28.4	26.6	27.0	29.6	-27	27	2	0	1284
J.J. Yeley	39.2	36.0	32.5	30.5	31.5	6	0	0	0	527
Ross Chastain	36.6	30.0	29.5	30.8	33.3	10	7	1	1	836
Reed Sorenson	33.7	33.8	34.8	31.2	34.4	17	0	0	0	1209
Gray Gaulding	32.5	31.0	35.0	28.5	34.5	-10	0	0	0	516
B.J. McLeod	28.3	35.3	36.7	32.7	36.0	10	0	0	0	755
Timmy Hill	25.6	38.8	39.0	37.5	38.5	7	0	2	0	608
Joey Gase	25.0	39.5	38.0	38.0	38.0	-3	0	0	0	365

For awareness purposes, I also compiled loop data stats from the last 5 races at Kansas Speedway. Similar to the last two weeks, I don’t think track history holds nearly as much handicapping weight as performance momentum. However, we don’t want to completely ignore track history either. With that being said, Kevin Harvick tops our Kansas loop data rankings this week with an average driver rating of 119.4. Harvick is actually tied with Jimmie Johnson (3) for the most wins among active drivers. More importantly, Harvick has just been phenomenal in terms of speed this season finishing in the top 5 in 11 of 18 starts including the last 5 consecutive races. Needless to say, Harvick remains the odds on favorite for justifiable reasons this Thursday.

Other notable mentiones in terms of Kansas loop data includes Chase Elliott who ranks 3rd with a 106.1 rating. Believe it or not, Elliott is not always ranked very high on loop data rankings mainly due to Chevrolets struggles at larger speedways in recent years. However, Elliott has been great at Kansas with top 5 finishes in 4 of his last 5 starts. Meanwhile, I would also point out both Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones as holding respectable rankings in their young careers in previous starts at Kansas. Blaney has remained the best car on the 1.5 mile venues though he does not have any wins (excluding Talladega) to show for it. Likewise Erik Jones has shown speed for a while now but typically has not had the finishes to show for it. Last week, Jones had one of his most complete performances in several weeks running inside the top 5 throughout portions of the event and bringing home a 6th place finish.

Betting Targets (To win the Super Start Batteries 400)

We have seen late race cautions and strategy ruin our betting picks for two straight weeks. While you would think strategy would not affect the outcome for a 3rd consecutive week, it is not out of the question when you consider the low tire wear and importance of track position again this week at Kansas. With that being said, you can still only target drivers that should be in position to make something happen because circumstantial victories like Austin Dillon’s win last week are nearly impossible to predict. Therefore, the best betting strategy is to follow the performance trends and find odds value for the drivers that should be battling for the win in the closing laps.

In regards to odds value, I favor Aric Almirola (+1800) and Joey Logano (+1250) again this week. Both drivers have been very fast over the last several weeks and are well within striking distance. Almirola actually ranks 2nd behind Blaney in performance average through Kentucky and Texas. Not to mention, the #10 car has posted top 5 finishes in 5 of his last 7 starts. For Joey Logano, I really believe the #22 team has found something in terms of speed. On the telecast last week, it was mentioned that the team reverted back to some prior setups over the last two weeks and it has definitely helped. Logano has shown top 5 speed for two straight weeks and had a chance to win last week at Texas despite rather significant handling issues. If the #22 team can build on their notes and momentum, he is one of my favorite plays this week.

To keep things relatively short, let me give a few rapid fire thoughts on some of the top prospects this week. For starters, Chase Elliott’s stats are very strong at Kansas but I don’t like the momentum of the #9 team when considering the heavily favored odds this week. I’m not keen on Denny Hamlin at all this week based on performance and track history. Brad Keselowski’s odds are enticing but part of me feels like he is the 3rd best car at Team Penske on 1.5 mile tracks at the moment. Martin Truex and Kyle Busch appear to be gaining ground on the competition. Unfortunately, their betting odds are also completely saturated. Kurt Busch, Erik Jones, and Matt DiBenedetto are among my favorites for drivers that could potentially score another big upset victory the old-fashioned way, by outright earning it.

H2H and Fantasy Targets for Kansas

From a fantasy standpoint, Kevin Harvick will likely anchor a lot of lineups this week after drawing the pole position. Harvick’s run of top 5 finishes combined with expected dominator points makes a strong case for the #4 car despite the expected ownership. Personally, Ryan Blaney ($9,900) and Joey Logano ($9,300) are my favorite pivots for the anchor positions this week. If Harvick’s team misses the setup, Blaney or Logano are in position to dominate early based on their speed in recent weeks. Both drivers are capable of winning this week and will not have to fight for track position in the early stages.

Some of my favorite value plays this week for fantasy include Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700) and Erik Jones ($9,000). Both drivers are among my favorite sharp H2H plays this week. The #21 has shown elite speed in the last few races and is finally looking to have the same speed as their Team Penske allies. DiBenedetto has raced his way into the top 5 in each of the last two weeks and this is a perfect track for one of the fan favorites to keep his momentum going. What makes DiBenedetto such a strong H2H target is that odds makers continue to pair the #21 against mediocre talents and that provides tremendous value for Kansas! Likewise, Erik Jones is in a similar situation having shown great speed in recent weeks. Jones’ fantasy value looks promising from the 21st position though his price tag is elevated. Still, I believe Jones’ has the speed to go out and run comfortably inside the top 10 which will be valuable in both H2H and fantasy formats.

If you are looking for some cheap flier options for fantasy purposes this week, Ty Dillon ($6,500) and Ryan Preece ($5,800) deserve a lot of attention. Dillon had the worst draw of the 25-36 cars and will start 36th this week raising his ceiling as a driver with reasonable top 20 potential. Preece is the cheaper option but admittedly has struggled in recent weeks. Preece will roll off the grid in the 35th position which helps his fantasy potential. I personally hate the performance of the #37 team but I can’t overlook the fantasy value this week.

Drivers to Fade

We could probably pick several drivers to fade this week. I personally don’t believe either Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, or Denny Hamlin or exactly worthy of their betting odds this week. I’m sure one of those drivers will surprise me in some way or fashion. However in terms of true fade candidates, my sights are set on guys like Alex Bowman, Jimmie Johnson, and Clint Bowyer. Similar to last week, Bowman continues to be paired against top-tier drivers and I don’t think the #88 teams’ performance warrants that type of respect. All of the Hendrick Motorsports cars have lost momentum in recent weeks and that plays somewhat into my reasons to fade Jimmie Johnson. Johnson simply ran out of talent last week at Texas which has surprisingly been the case on too many occasions in the last two years. More importantly, this team appears to be losing speed rather than gaining it.

Lastly, Clint Bowyer continues to befuddle me in terms of performance. All of the Stewart-Haas Racing cars have been excellent in recent weeks. Harvick has been phenomenal, Almirola is having the best stretch of his career, and rookie Cole Custer earned his first career victory at Kentucky. Meanwhile, Bowyer is struggling to crack the top 10 each week. Outside of a pair of top 10 finishes in both Pocono races, Bowyer has failed to finish inside the top 10 in the 7 races since Bristol. For whatever reason, the #14 team continues to underachieve and that is especially surprising with contract discussions heating up.

Draftkings Super Start Batteries 400 Optimal Lineup

2020 Super Start Batteries 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +1250 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +1600 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +2700 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3000 (.5 unit)
Matt DiBenedetto +5500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Kevin Harvick +440 wins Super Start Batteries 400
Erik Jones +100 over Alex Bowman
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1225

Ryan Blaney/Martin Truex Jr +330 wins Super Start Batteries 400
Team 2 – Open (for Kansas 200)
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Matt DiBenedetto -120 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
Joey Logano -110 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Cole Custer -135 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -138 does not finish Top 5 (2 units)
Matt DiBenedetto +700 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1100 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)