2020 SpeedyCash.com 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Sunday October 25th, 12:10PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After several runner-up finishes, Brett Moffitt finally scored his 1st win of the season last week at Kansas and the timing could not have been better. Moffitt’s victory in the Clean Harbors 200 secured his spot in the championship round at Phoenix for the Truck Series Championship. On Sunday before the Cup Series steps into the spotlight, the Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series returns for the 2nd race in the Round of 8 with the running of the Speedycash.com 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Back in July, Kyle Busch drove the #54 truck to a win at Texas in the Vankor 250. Busch was challenged heavily in that race by teammate Christian Eckes who posted his best performance of the season by leading 52 laps. Matt Crafton, Zane Smith, and Moffitt were among the other drivers also performed well in that event which should not be surprising considering those drivers have performed well on a near weekly basis. Still, I think this week’s best handicapping formula can be found by compiling results from prior races at Texas and performance trends throughout 2020 on similar layouts for Truck Series competitors.

I posted a graphic last week that compiled loop data results from recent races at Kansas and Las Vegas. While Texas has more banking and requires a different set-up, the driving characteristics are fairly similar due to high grip levels and low tire wear. In that prior visual loop data, Austin Hill, Zane Smith, Matt Crafton, Brett Moffitt, and Sheldon Creed rounded out our top 5 drivers and I believe that is a fairly accurate predicament of how drivers currently rank in the Truck Series. Personally, I would swap Creed and Crafton but those 5 drivers have been the weekly best performing teams/driver combinations all season. The question for this week’s race is who has the best opportunity among the group to get the job done?

Betting Targets

Among the favorites, I am doubling down on Zane Smith again this week. I had Smith on my betting card last week after noting surprising strong performance trends on the 1.5 mile layouts. Smith was in position for the win late in the race but made contact with Brett Moffitt as the two drivers fought for the lead. If we look back to the July race at Texas, Smith was one of the top performing trucks despite settling for a 19th place finish. I continue to be impressed by the speed of the GMS Trucks which have produced wins in 6 of the last 10 races. Smith’s performance has been the best of the GMS stable on 1.5 mile layouts though I will give respectful credit to both Moffitt and Creed’s performance in recent weeks as viable options on Sunday as well.

Austin Hill deserves to be among the top considerations due to his win at Las Vegas and 3rd place result at Kansas in the last 3 races. Hill has been one of the most consistent front-runners all season but I just think he is overvalued from an odds standpoint. The guy I am putting some heavy consideration towards this week is Christian Eckes. Eckes has been really good on the 1.5 mile surfaces this year and as I mentioned earlier; Eckes had his best performance of the season at Texas back in July. In hindsight, it should not have been shocking because Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks have won 3 straight at Texas including Greg Biffle’s win in the 2019 Speedycash.com 400. I believe Rudy Fugle and team will build on that success and give Eckes another quality opportunity at his 1st victory this Sunday. Not only do I believe Eckes is an excellent betting choice for the outright win but he also provides significant value in terms of H2H match-ups this week as well.

Drivers to Fade

Does anybody know what has happened to Ben Rhodes? The driver that scored a win at the hardest track in NASCAR (Darlington) and went on to finish 3rd at Richmond the following week has been MIA in the last few races. Rhodes has posted finishes of 23rd at Las Vegas and 20th at Kansas which points to the loop data concerns that pointed out Rhodes has struggled at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. Considering the drivers that are paired against Rhodes, I have no choice but to fade him this week until the #99 team shows signs of life at these types of layouts.

Another driver in a similar situation that has apparently lost all momentum and has shown no promising results on 1.5 mile layouts includes Todd Gilliland. After a really strong 1st half of the season, Gilliland has finished 13th or worse in the last 5 races. At the first 4 races of the season on 1.5 mile surfaces, Gilliland recorded finishes of 7th (Las Vegas), 37th (Charlotte), 4th (Atlanta), and 6th (Homestead). Since the Homestead races, Gilliland has placed 27th, 10th, 20th, 13th, and 13th in the following 5 races on 1.5 mile layouts. Just from the analytical observation, we can see a decrease in performance and the #38 team has shown no signs of turning things around.

2020 Speedycash.com 400 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Speedycash.com 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Zane Smith +600 (1.25 units)
Christian Eckes +1200 (1 unit)
Chandler Smith +1800 (1 unit)
Tyler Ankrum +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Chandler Smith -130 over Ben Rhodes (3 units)
Christian Eckes +100 over Matt Crafton (3 units)