2020 South Carolina Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Sunday September 6th, 2:00PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the first time in nearly a decade, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will return to Darlington Raceway for the running of the South Carolina Education Lottery 200 on Sunday. The Truck Series will be involved in a double header on Sunday with the Cup Series that will take center stage later in the afternoon for the running of the historic Southern 500. For Sunday’s South Carolina Education Lottery 200, we really don’t know what to expect. Not only has the Truck Series not competed at Darlington since 2011 but they really have not competed on any similar type of track which yields uncertain expectations. However we are not backing down from The Lady in Black and will discuss the best betting options with our 2020 South Carolina Education Lottery 200 race picks!

If you are not familiar with Darlington Raceway, it is one of the most exciting tracks on the circuit. The abrasive 1.366 mile surface produces extreme tire wear and fall off in lap times. Drivers will fight the difficulty of the racetrack and simultaneously try to find a way to salvage their tires. Because teams will elect to put on tires every chance they can, pit stops will be important towards keeping/establishing track position. Once you throw out the tires and pit stop strategy, Darlington Raceway always brings out the best in drivers. Despite the Truck Series not racing at Darlington in several years, we still have a strong understanding of the best drivers in the series. Last week, I stated that Austin Hill, Zane Smith, and Sheldon Creed were the top 3 drivers in the series. I later stated that the debate may still be open for Creed but I would list him in my top 3 and afterwards Creed scored the victory in the CarShield 200 at Gateway to help settle the argument. This week, the same trio emerges as legitimate contenders to tame The Lady in Black.

Favorites Discussion

Former Cup Series star Greg Biffle joins the Truck Series competition this week in the #24 at GMS Racing. Biffle actually won his prior Truck Series start with Kyle Busch Motorsports at Texas. While I’m sure Biffle’s experience will help compared to several drivers that have limited experience, I cannot see the justification in his 5 to 1 betting odds this week. Former Cup Series veterans Trevor Bayne (Niece Motorsports) and David Ragan (DGR-Crosley) are also in competition this week though I would be surprised to see either challenge for the victory.

Instead, I am sticking with the likes of Austin Hill and Zane Smith for the deserving favorites this week. In my opinion, Austin Hill may be the most talented of the Truck Series regulars and he had an excellent showing earlier today bringing home a 9th place finish in the Xfinity race. Hill’s 4 to 1 betting odds yield minimal hopes for a decent payout but he is likely the deserving betting favorite. Meanwhile, Zane Smith (+800) is getting much better odds this week among the favorites. I definitely believe Smith’s experience may be his biggest disadvantage this week but the driving talent is undeniable. Smith’s two victories (Michigan and Dover) come at difficult race tracks so perhaps Darlington will not be any different.

I personally believe Brett Moffit’s driving style is strongly suited for Darlington. Moffitt has been really fast the last several weeks but is still looking for that first victory of the season. If this race produces long green flag runs, I like Moffitt’s chances but I will be waiting to see if his betting odds get better. For guys like Christian Eckes and Sheldon Creed, I believe both will be fast and potentially have race winning speed. However, my confidence that both of those drivers can keep speed in their trucks is not very high. Both drivers have a pretty aggressive driving style which may hurt their race speed after the first 5-10 laps.

Betting Targets

If you combine the uncertainty of this race with the conservative betting odds, it creates a rather ugly betting opportunity especially in the realm of win (futures) bets. As a result, my futures bets for this race will be extremely conservative and the major focus will be put towards H2H match-ups. In the realm of H2H match-ups, the drivers that believe return solid value include the likes of Matt Crafton, Brett Moffitt, and Stewart Friesen. I believe Brett Moffitt will be one of the best betting drivers among the favorites behind Austin Hill. Moffitt’s driving style is similar to Crafton and I expect both drivers to get better as the race progresses.

For whatever reason, Matt Crafton is currently undervalued in comparison to his peers. Crafton has consistently been the best Thorsport Racing truck all year and has the stylistic skill set to keep the #88 at the front of the field. Lastly, Stewart Friesen is a driver that is high on my list this week for betting match-ups. I mentioned last week that the #52 team continues to get better every week in terms of speed. More importantly, Friesen excels at the low-grip racing surfaces likely due to his dirt background. If you look at tracks like Atlanta and Homestead which yield the low-grip/high-wear surfaces, those are the venues that Friesen usually produces the most success.

Fantasy Targets

The fantasy options for tomorrow’s South Carolina Education Lottery 200 are more generous than betting odds. Personally, I like former Cup Series veterans like David Ragan, Trevor Bayne, and Greg Biffle much more for fantasy purposes. Ragan is among the must-have drivers because he will be starting dead last in the 34th position yielding a solid ceiling. Meanwhile, Trevor Bayne ($7,600) and Greg Biffle ($8,100) are priced fairly and will be starting in the bottom half of the field. Ben Rhodes, Stewart Friesen, and Derek Kraus are slightly more expensive options that may perform better overall. However, all 3 of those drivers are also starting in the top 15 which limits their potential.

At $11,000, Johnny Sauter is the most expensive fantasy option this week. While I believe Sauter could return value, he has been too inconsistent to trust at the most expensive price on the board. Among the favorites, I keep going back and forth between Austin Hill ($9,900) and Brett Moffitt ($8,900). I believe Hill has the bigger likelihood to get out front and dominate which means his ceiling is higher. However, Moffitt has similar potential for a cheaper price and will be starting on the pole. Both drivers are solid options this week depending on how you want to go about your line-up. Lastly, I would also encourage line-ups to have decent exposure towards Matt Crafton ($9,300) and Christian Eckes ($10,600). Both drivers have similar upside and though I would not make them priorities, they deserve spots for fantasy owners submitting multiple line-ups.

2020 South Carolina Education Lottery 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 South Carolina Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Hill +450 (.5 unit)
Zane Smith +800 (.5 unit)
Matt Crafton +1600 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Matt Crafton -145 over Chandler Smith (3 units)
Johnny Sauter -110 over David Ragan (3 units)
Stewart Friesen -110 over Raphael Lessard (3 units)