2020 Shady Rays 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Thursday July 8th, 8:00PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

One week after a fantastic race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, the Xfinity Series will get two opportunities to entertain fans this week with back to back night races at Kentucky Speedway. The opening race will take place Thursday night with the running of the Shady Rays 200 and will conclude Friday night with the running of the Alsco 300. Most recently, Chase Briscoe earned his 5th victory of the season and 3rd win in the last 4 races with an impressive victory at Indianapolis. Briscoe has been dominant in the absence of Cup Series drivers this season and will be the heavy favorite yet again this week without any Cup Series participation.

Last Saturday, Chase Briscoe earned his 5th victory of the season at Indianapolis after an intense battle in the closing laps with Austin Cindric and A.J. Allmendinger. Though Briscoe appeared to have the 3rd best car, he simply out drove two of the best road course talents in the sport in the final laps. Briscoe clearly has emerged as a potential superstar in the making and his incredible run to start the season cannot be undermined. Last week’s victory is even more impressive when you consider Briscoe’s background does not include road course racing and just further proves his versatility can conquer all venues. At this point, Briscoe has become a justifiable weekly favorite before we even begin to discuss performance, trends, and historical narratives.

The Xfinity Series has frequented 1.5 mile speedways this season but Kentucky Speedway provides a rather unique 1.5 mile layout. The speedway was repaved and reconfigured in 2016 meaning it yields a lot of grip unlike recent 1.5 visits to Atlanta and Homestead. Despite the grip level, the surface remains relatively rough and bumpy which puts a stress on the setups of cars. If I had to compare any track the Xfinity Series has competed on this year to Kentucky, the closest in resemblance would be Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Sadly for bettors, Chase Briscoe also won that race earlier this season at Las Vegas. Furthermore, Briscoe was pretty strong a year ago leading several laps and bringing home a 4th place finish in his 1st start at Kentucky.

With those factors in mind, I think the case for Chase Briscoe is a given. Unfortunately, the odds stemming from Briscoe’s incredible run this season are not favorable and I doubt they will be for some time. The good news is that this opening race at Kentucky yields the biggest opportunity for another driver to visit victory lane. Kentucky is a fast 1.5 mile speedway with a relatively narrow racing groove making passing difficult. As a result, track position will be very important especially in the closing laps. Races at Kentucky are not always decided by the fastest car but rather the car/team that can take advantage of track position in the final laps.

Drivers to Target

After having the luxury of two practices last week at Indianapolis, Xfinity Series teams will lose that privilege this week at Kentucky as there will not be any practices for all 3 series this week. As a result, teams will rely on their notebook for setup calculations. I think the team/drivers that have collective experience at Kentucky have an advantage over drivers with new/different teams this week. Because of the amount of throttle time through the corners, it is imperative drivers have a good handling car this week and that will depend heavily on the setups.

After looking at similar races this year and even watching the last couple Kentucky races, I am convinced that Austin Cindric and Brandon Jones will be contenders this week. I think I have advocated Austin Cindric in 3 of the last 4 races without any luck. To be fair, Cindric and the #22 team have winning speed. The team and driver just need to have flawless execution. Cindric was really strong at Kentucky as a rookie in 2018 and was battling inside the top 5 last year before wrecking while trying to pass Justin Haley. With two years of solid performances at Kentucky combined with the raw speed we have seen from the #22 team, Cindric has to be considered a top pick!

For Brandon Jones, my expectations are high this week which is admittedly uncommon because I tend to stay away from Jones. However, the #19 team was really solid at Las Vegas earlier this year which again best resembles Kentucky of the tracks already visited this season. Furthermore, Jones had a winning car in this race a year ago. While leading the race, the engine slowly expired shortly after the mid-point in the race. In fact, if you look at Jones’ “finishes” at Kentucky nothing really stands out besides a strong 5th place result as a rookie in 2015. However, I should reassure everyone Jones is a great driver at Kentucky and he was running a line that few could mimic in last year’s race. If the #19 team can rely on last year’s setup to provide some speed, Jones could be a true dark horse.

While these next pair of drivers will likely not contend for the win this Thursday, I really like Michael Annett and Brandon Brown as sharp H2H drivers. I am not sure if Brown will be offered in match-ups because I did not see him listed last week. However, Brown has not finished outside the top 15 in a single race this year that was not a result of equipment failure. In fact, he has been a border-line top 10 driver at the majority of the 1.5 mile surfaces this year and this should be another track where Brown can excel as long as the equipment holds up. Likewise, Annett is another sneaky sharp play. Annett fits all the criteria of a driver that should exceed expectations this week and is coming off back to back top 10 finishes in the last two races. Annett has been paired against intermediate drivers and that will yield some serious value this week!

Drivers to Fade

Because speed is so important at Kentucky and passing is so difficult, teams that lack the aerodynamic raw speed are going to struggle unless bizarre strategy changes things. Kentucky is not really known for strategy. The potential for a two-tire stop will be possible but we will not see anything like we did at Indianapolis with major fluctuations in the running order with every pit stop. Therefore, I believe this is a strong opportunity to fade the Kaulig Racing cars of Ross Chastain and Justin Haley. Though I am a fan of Haley’s driving ability, I actually believe he is the best driver to fade. Whereas Chastain has the aggressiveness to make passes and block trailing competitors, Haley is not nearly as aggressive. I expect the Kaulig Racing drivers will need to be aggressive because they have not shown the aerodynamic raw speed that the other top teams have shown. I think both drivers will be at a disadvantage in this race which provides fade opportunities against other top-tier drivers.

Shady Rays 200 Optimal Lineup

2020 Shady Rays 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +625 (1.25 units)
Brandon Jones +1000 (1 unit)
Harrison Burton +1200 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Jeb Burton +140 over Justin Haley
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Michael Annett -110 over Anthony Alfredo (4 units)
Austin Cindric -125 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Brandon Jones -135 over Justin Haley (2 units)